HX Edge Pack · HX 2026.4

Edge Board

Confidence schema surface. Tiers A–D, calibration FLAGS, small / medium / large edge bands (large ≥ 7 pts) and lean bands. Free is public schedule HX vs Vegas. Paid is ranked cards. Example cards are a schema demo — not a dump of the paid pack.

schema demoHX 2026.4

HX Edge Pack · confidence

Product `hx_edge_card_confidence` · `hx_edge_confidence_schema_2026`. Never a lock badge. Same HX as the public board — ranked, not a second rating.

Free vs paid

Free · public board / schedule: Public schedule HX vs Vegas only — spread gap, same favorite called out. One Make 12 cell on the board. No ranked confidence cards.
Paid · HX Edge Pack: Ranked confidence cards A–D with calibration FLAGS, unit O/D pulse, tape write-up. Same HX as the public board — written out. Not a second rating.

Calibration FLAGS

Top 25 closer soft below 50%. Slice closer at or above the threshold. Cards may lead only when the rest of the tier rule holds.
Full-slate closer soft below 45%. FLAG — calibration soft. Do not lead the pack. Show FLAG on the card.

Tiers A–D

Tier A

can lead

Top 25 slice, calibration ok (closer ≥ 50%), medium or large |HX−Vegas| (medium 3 ≤ |Δ| < 7, large ≥ 7), strong lean (≥ 15pp from 50). Winner flips allowed. Can lead the pack. Never a lock.

Tier B

do not lead

Top 25 slice, calibration ok, small |HX−Vegas| (< 3 pts), strong lean. Same favorite as the book. Do not lead.

Tier C

do not lead

Top 25 slice, calibration ok, coin lean (45–55% toss-up). Small-edge character. Do not lead.

Tier D

do not lead

Full-slate slice under the 45% closer FLAG, or any card whose slice is calibration-soft. Do not lead. Soft cards show FLAG — calibration soft. Never a lock.

Edge / lean bands

|HX − Vegas| < 3 pts → small
|HX − Vegas| 3 ≤ |Δ| < 7 pts → medium
|HX − Vegas| ≥ 7 pts → large
HX win probability ≥ 15pp from 50 → strong
HX win probability 5–15pp from 50 → lean
HX win probability within 5pp of 50 (45–55% toss-up) → coin

|HX − Vegas| ≥ 4 pts — Week 3 pack notable-gap filter, not a size band.

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Informational model product. Not gambling advice. HASHMARK does not take wagers.

Example cards · schema demo

EXAMPLE / schema demoTier Acal ok

Western Kentucky @ Indiana

2026-09-19 15:00 CT · Peacock

HX: Indiana −20.8 / 86.1%
Vegas: IU −44.5 (ESPN/DraftKings)
|Δ|: 23.7 pts · large
Lean: strong

|Δ| 23.7 pts (large) · HX lean strong (36.1pp from 50) · Top25 slice · cal ok (63.2%)

Week 3 peer-CLEARed pack. Schema demo — not a dump of the paid pack.

EXAMPLE / schema demoTier DFLAG — calibration soft

Ohio @ South Alabama

Sat Sep 19 · 18:00 CT · ESPN+

HX: Ohio −6.0 / 64.9%
Vegas: USA −4.5 (ESPN/DraftKings)
|Δ|: 10.5 pts · large
Lean: lean · winner flip

Winner flip · |Δ| 10.5 pts (large) · HX lean lean (14.9pp from 50) · FLAG — full-slate calibration soft (42.6%)

Week 3 peer-CLEARed pack. Schema demo — not a dump of the paid pack.

Schema `hx_edge_confidence_schema_2026`. Scenario Sim desk fixture is preview / offline — not this week’s paid pack.

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