HX 2026.2
HX is a preseason composite: each feature is z-scored across FBS, then weighted. Georgia opened 2026 at +7.89. A replacement-level Group of Five team sits near 0. Head-to-head uses Elo seeded from that composite.
Walk-forward Top 25 balanced ≈ 0.646. Only talent and prior rating beat season-to-season noise. QB continuity, coach tenure, and SOS were tested and zeroed — they made the score worse.
CFBD team talent composite (247 recruiting strength of the current roster). Real signal — ablation +0.052.
Blend of last season’s SP+, Elo, and SRS, each z-scored first. Real signal — ablation +0.037.
Weighted win% over the previous four seasons (0.4 / 0.3 / 0.2 / 0.1). Inside the noise band; kept at modest weight.
CFBD returning production (percent PPA + usage). Inside noise. Not the two-deep talent composite.
Incoming transfer ratings minus outgoing, this offseason. Inside noise. Roster talent already counts who is actually on the two-deep.
Each team starts at 1500 + 55 × HX. Home-field is 60 Elo points, dropped on a neutral floor. Win probability is the standard Elo logistic; spread is a quadratic on that same gap. Calibrated on 2019–2025 FBS games at 70.8% straight-up.
Elo = 1500 + 55 × HX
P(home) = 1 / (1 + 10^{−(EloΔ + HFA) / 400})
d = EloΔ + HFA
spread = 0.050835 d + 4.5795e-5 d |d|
prev = d × 0.0534The old linear map compressed blowouts; this curve was fit on 2019–2023 FBS actual MOV (holdout 2024–2025), not on this week’s Vegas.
Run any pair on the matchup board.
The board is the full 136-team FBS set from the HASHMARK database — recruiting, portal, returning production, SP+/Elo/SRS, and 2026 rosters. Two-deeps are the listed TWO·DEEP charts for 89 programs and a rating-sorted projection for the rest (CFBD publishes no depth chart). Projected two-deeps are labelled as estimates.
Indiana is sixth on the preseason AP ballot after a national title. HX has the Hoosiers eleventh. Talent composite is league-average; the model withholds credit when the roster does not match the résumé.
Georgia and Ohio State are 1–2 here. The AP has Ohio State first and Oregon second; HX flips Oregon and Georgia because Georgia’s talent z-score is the strongest in the pool. Texas Tech’s résumé (prior +1.99) outruns its talent (+0.66), so the Red Raiders sit seventh in HX — above their AP tie at 12th, short of a playoff lock on last year alone.
A Connelly-residual coach-change term is on the board this week (kappa −0.25, with a 15% OC bump). Coach tenure stays zeroed. Week 0 win probabilities are frozen at the pre-adjustment ratings.
Offensive-line mass is on the talent Size board as a measurable. It is not a term in HX. The talent composite is the depth-weighted 247 of the two-deep, transfers included.