Predictive model
Head to head
Type a school or pick from the list. HX seeds an Elo rating (1500 + 55 × composite). Home-field is 60 Elo points unless Neutral site is on (Dublin, CFP, etc.). Win probability and spread come from that gap.
Home
Away
Final
4:30 CT · CBSSN · Fargodome · Tape Jax State 7–33 N Dakota St
Home
North Dakota State
HX #59 · Mountain West
32–24
N Dakota St −7.5 · O/U 56.5
Away
Jacksonville State
HX #82 · CUSA
N Dakota St
68.1%
Jax State
31.9%
In-game restamp
Same HX prior. Type the score at the stamp. Not a live feed.
HX edge
+132.10
Includes home field
Pregame home win
68.1%
HX before any restamp
Projected wins
9.2 / 9.1
Season, pre-game
Unit vs unit
Each offense stat against the other side's matching defense stat, both as FBS percentiles (100 = best). A gap of 10+ points is an edge. 2026 stats through 2026-11-11; EPA, success rate, explosiveness, and line yards are opponent-adjusted (CFBD). Stats only: the HX line above is the prediction.
N Dakota St OvsJax State DN Dakota St offenseJax State defense
- EPA per playEven0.035 · P290.157 · P32
- Success rateEdge: Jax State D37.7 · P2143.0 · P38
- ExplosivenessEdge: Jax State D1.336 · P821.116 · P94
- Line yards (run blocking)Even2.71 · P223.25 · P14
- Rushing (yards per carry)Even4.03 · P324.28 · P38
- Yards per playEdge: Jax State D5.38 · P265.14 · P72
- 3rd downEdge: N Dakota St O39.7 · P4443.0 · P16
- Havoc (offense allowed vs defense made)Even14.5 · P5315.3 · P44
Jax State OvsN Dakota St DJax State offenseN Dakota St defense
- EPA per playEdge: N Dakota St D0.120 · P56-0.016 · P85
- Success rateEdge: N Dakota St D43.9 · P7137.9 · P82
- ExplosivenessEdge: N Dakota St D1.222 · P411.193 · P71
- Line yards (run blocking)Edge: Jax State O2.99 · P602.95 · P46
- Rushing (yards per carry)Even5.01 · P793.60 · P72
- Yards per playEven6.54 · P854.36 · P95
- 3rd downEven45.5 · P8034.2 · P74
- Havoc (offense allowed vs defense made)Edge: N Dakota St D14.0 · P6118.5 · P84
Definitions on /stats.
Roster talent
Two-deep composite, transfers included. Unit slices sit under that. OL mass is size, not the ranking.
0.31HX rating
-1.00No sourced talent, class, or size profile for N Dakota St yet (2026 FBS newcomer), so the roster comparison is off for this matchup.
Two-deep
Listed TWO·DEEP where available · CFBD projection otherwise| N Dakota St | Pos | Jax State |
|---|---|---|
| — | QB | #12Caden Creel RS JR · 3-star 6'0" · 200 lb · AL |
| — | QB | #15Jack Moran RS FR · 3-star 6'5" · 230 lb · NJ |
| — | RB | #6Jalen Likely RS SO · 3-star 5'8" · 190 lb · AL |
| — | RB | #32Cedric Kouemi FR · 3-star 5'11" · 210 lb · MD |
| — | WR-X | #11Deondre Johnson RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'8" · 215 lb · NY |
| — | WR-X | #17Jamill Williams RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'0" · 185 lb · GA |
| — | WR-Z | #9Ronnel Johnson SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'0" · 180 lb · GA |
| — | WR-Z | #84Franklin Baret Jr. RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR 6'4" · 205 lb · NC |
| — | SLOT | #3Darius Cannon RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 5'9" · 180 lb · GA |
| — | SLOT | #5Dylan Gentry RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR 5'9" · 165 lb · AL |
| — | TE | #83David Alpers III RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'6" · 260 lb · SD |
| — | TE | #30Luke Gilbert SO · 3-star 6'3" · 225 lb · AL |
| — | LT | #74Amarii Atchison RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'8" · 300 lb · GA |
| — | LT | #70Jeremiah Orr RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'5" · 325 lb · SC |
| — | LG | #62Hadine Diaby RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 300 lb · GA |
| — | LG | #79Lance Johnson SO · 3-star 6'4" · 210 lb · AL |
| — | C | #50Lucas Mrachkovskiy RS SO · 3-star 6'2" · 300 lb · AL |
| — | C | #65Britin Witt JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 300 lb · VA |
| — | RG | #55Ryan Walker RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 295 lb · AL |
| — | RG | #75Caleb Holmes RS FR/TR · 4-star · TR 6'3" · 300 lb · GA |
| — | RT | #71Cam Stancil RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'4" · 300 lb · MS |
| — | RT | #63Ryland Bragg RS SO · 3-star 6'3" · 285 lb · FL |
| — | DE | #15Tae Floyd RS JR · 3-star 6'3" · 250 lb · FL |
| — | DE | #14Angel Toombs RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'5" · 260 lb · WI |
| — | EDGE | #53Ian Mitchell SO · 3-star 6'4" · 245 lb · AL |
| — | EDGE | #13Jacob Cruz SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'4" · 230 lb · GA |
| — | DT | #44Khurtiss Perry RS SR/TR · 4-star · TR 6'3" · 288 lb · AL |
| — | DT | #16Quay Hood SO · 3-star 6'2" · 275 lb · GA |
| — | NT | #93Jawaun Campbell JR · 3-star 5'11" · 282 lb · FL |
| — | NT | #28Christopher Johnson RS FR · 3-star 6'3" · 290 lb · AL |
| — | MLB | #59Mac Sanders SO · 3-star 6'2" · 225 lb · GA |
| — | MLB | Myles Butler SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'1" · 220 lb · GA |
| — | WLB | #40Walker O'Steen RS SR · 3-star 6'3" · 220 lb · AL |
| — | WLB | #2Morven Joseph RS SR/TR · 4-star · TR 6'3" · 215 lb · FL |
| — | LCB | #8JQ Brooks SO · 3-star 6'3" · 180 lb · AL |
| — | LCB | #22Jaheim Jenkins RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'2" · 190 lb · GA |
| — | RCB | #3Tre'Quon Fegans RS SR/TR · 4-star · TR 6'1" · 190 lb · AL |
| — | RCB | #18Keiyon Turner RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'1" · 185 lb · AZ |
| — | NB | #9Jonavan Carr RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'0" · 190 lb · FL |
| — | NB | #6Kaden Cook RS FR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'0" · 195 lb · TX |
| — | FS | #1Caleb Nix RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'0" · 202 lb · AL |
| — | FS | #5Rob Billings IV RS JR/TR · 4-star · TR 6'2" · 205 lb · GA |
| — | SS | #7Marc Woods RS SO · 3-star 6'4" · 205 lb · AL |
| — | SS | #12Brennan Core FR · 3-star 6'1" · 185 lb · AL |