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Current HX · real 2026 schedule

Strength of record & schedule

Strength of record asks how much better your record is than a typical top-25 team's would be against the same opponents, at the same sites. The benchmark is the current No. 25 on the HX board (USC, HX 3.00). Schedule strength is the average current HX of FBS opponents, played and still to come.

AllSECBig TenACCBig 12IndependentGroup of FiveAmericanSun BeltMACCUSAMountain WestPac-12
Strength of recordSchedule playedSchedule left
1UCLA10–0 · HX No. 13
+2.94
SOR No. 1
Top-25 team
7.1–2.9
Played
0.14 · No. 69
Left
2.20 · No. 30
2Utah9–0 · HX No. 8
+2.71
SOR No. 2
Top-25 team
6.3–2.7
Played
0.91 · No. 46
Left
1.60 · No. 42
3Alabama7–2 · HX No. 2
+2.59
SOR No. 3
Top-25 team
4.4–4.6
Played
3.19 · No. 3
Left
1.05 · No. 53
4Georgia8–1 · HX No. 1
+2.54
SOR No. 4
Top-25 team
5.5–3.5
Played
2.08 · No. 17
Left
1.79 · No. 39
5Miami8–1 · HX No. 3
+2.40
SOR No. 5
Top-25 team
5.6–3.4
Played
1.45 · No. 31
Left
0.76 · No. 61
6Kentucky7–2 · HX No. 27
+2.27
SOR No. 6
Top-25 team
4.7–4.3
Played
3.11 · No. 5
Left
3.37 · No. 13
7Texas7–2 · HX No. 5
+2.19
SOR No. 7
Top-25 team
4.8–4.2
Played
3.00 · No. 6
Left
3.13 · No. 18
8Notre Dame8–1 · HX No. 4
+2.14
SOR No. 8
Top-25 team
5.9–3.1
Played
0.65 · No. 55
Left
0.34 · No. 64
9Indiana8–1 · HX No. 12
+1.84
SOR No. 9
Top-25 team
6.2–2.8
Played
0.90 · No. 48
Left
1.57 · No. 43
10Boise State8–1 · HX No. 15
+1.72
SOR No. 10
Top-25 team
6.3–2.7
Played
0.31 · No. 66
Left
-0.78 · No. 72
11Wake Forest8–1 · HX No. 24
+1.63
SOR No. 11
Top-25 team
6.4–2.6
Played
-0.11 · No. 72
Left
0.99 · No. 56
12Tennessee7–2 · HX No. 7
+1.48
SOR No. 12
Top-25 team
5.5–3.5
Played
2.02 · No. 18
Left
3.00 · No. 20
13Ole Miss6–3 · HX No. 10
+1.46
SOR No. 13
Top-25 team
4.5–4.5
Played
2.87 · No. 8
Left
2.07 · No. 33
14Texas Tech8–1 · HX No. 16
+1.44
SOR No. 14
Top-25 team
6.6–2.4
Played
0.07 · No. 70
Left
2.35 · No. 27
15BYU7–2 · HX No. 18
+1.37
SOR No. 15
Top-25 team
5.6–3.4
Played
1.71 · No. 25
Left
1.01 · No. 55
16USC7–2 · HX No. 25
+1.22
SOR No. 16
Top-25 team
5.8–3.2
Played
1.15 · No. 41
Left
2.44 · No. 25
17Iowa7–2 · HX No. 17
+1.20
SOR No. 17
Top-25 team
5.8–3.2
Played
1.06 · No. 44
Left
1.45 · No. 44
18Oregon6–3 · HX No. 11
+1.19
SOR No. 18
Top-25 team
4.8–4.2
Played
3.19 · No. 4
Left
1.04 · No. 54
19LSU6–3 · HX No. 6
+0.88
SOR No. 19
Top-25 team
5.1–3.9
Played
2.92 · No. 7
Left
3.77 · No. 9
20Ohio State6–3 · HX No. 9
+0.81
SOR No. 20
Top-25 team
5.2–3.8
Played
1.40 · No. 32
Left
2.32 · No. 28
21South Carolina6–3 · HX No. 20
+0.80
SOR No. 21
Top-25 team
5.2–3.8
Played
2.52 · No. 11
Left
3.30 · No. 15
22Arizona7–2 · HX No. 23
+0.75
SOR No. 22
Top-25 team
6.2–2.8
Played
0.24 · No. 68
Left
1.61 · No. 41
23New Mexico8–1 · HX No. 50
+0.69
SOR No. 23
Top-25 team
7.3–1.7
Played
-2.27 · No. 127
Left
-1.98 · No. 97
24Missouri6–3 · HX No. 14
+0.56
SOR No. 24
Top-25 team
5.4–3.6
Played
1.97 · No. 21
Left
4.26 · No. 5
25Liberty8–1 · HX No. 38
+0.51
SOR No. 25
Top-25 team
7.5–1.5
Played
-2.80 · No. 135
Left
-3.31 · No. 131

Method

  • Benchmark: the current No. 25 team on the HX board. For each game already played, its win chance uses the HX matchup engine (Elo = 1500 + 55 × HX, 60 points home field, none at neutral sites). Against an FCS opponent it uses the season sim's fixed rule: 92% home, 88% away.
  • SOR = actual wins − the benchmark's expected wins on those games. +1.00 means one more win than a typical top-25 team would have.
  • Schedule played / left = average current HX of FBS opponents, ranked 1–138 (No. 1 = hardest). FCS opponents have no HX, so they are counted but left out of the average.
  • Everything uses current HX, so a win over a team that has since risen counts for more. Only real FINALs and the real remaining slate are used. More on The Model.