HX 2026.8 · 10,000 simulated seasons · 2026-11-12
Conference races
Who reaches each title game and who wins the league, from the same 10,000 HX season simulations behind Make 12. FINALs are locked; every remaining game is drawn from HX win probability.
SEC favorite
GeorgiaWin the league
54.4%
Title game
97.8%
Still alive
6 of 16
| Team | Conf now | Proj conf | Title gmTitle game | ChampWin the league |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GeorgiaHX No. 1 · 6–1 conf | 6–1 | 7.5–1.5 | 97.8% | 54.4% |
 AlabamaHX No. 2 · 5–2 conf | 5–2 | 6.7–2.3 | 85.9% | 40.4% |
 TexasHX No. 5 · 4–2 conf | 4–2 | 5.9–3.1 | 7.3% | 2.7% |
 TennesseeHX No. 7 · 4–2 conf | 4–2 | 5.9–3.1 | 5.4% | 1.9% |
 KentuckyHX No. 27 · 5–2 conf | 5–2 | 5.9–3.1 | 3.4% | 0.7% |
 LSUHX No. 6 · 3–3 conf | 3–3 | 4.8–4.2 | 0.1% | <0.1% |
 Ole MissHX No. 10 · 4–3 conf | 4–3 | 5.4–3.6 | <0.1% | 0% |
 South CarolinaHX No. 20 · 4–3 conf | 4–3 | 4.9–4.1 | <0.1% | 0% |
 MissouriHX No. 14 · 3–3 conf | 3–3 | 4.5–4.5 | 0% | 0% |
 OklahomaHX No. 32 · 3–3 conf | 3–3 | 4.3–4.7 | 0% | 0% |
 FloridaHX No. 28 · 3–4 conf | 3–4 | 4.2–4.8 | 0% | 0% |
 AuburnHX No. 39 · 3–4 conf | 3–4 | 3.6–5.4 | 0% | 0% |
 Mississippi StateHX No. 46 · 2–5 conf | 2–5 | 2.8–6.2 | 0% | 0% |
 Texas A&MHX No. 21 · 1–5 conf | 1–5 | 2.3–6.7 | 0% | 0% |
 ArkansasHX No. 54 · 1–5 conf | 1–5 | 1.7–7.3 | 0% | 0% |
 VanderbiltHX No. 64 · 1–5 conf | 1–5 | 1.6–7.4 | 0% | 0% |
How this works
- 10,000 seasons, fixed seed 20261112, on the HX 2026.8 board. Each remaining game is a coin weighted by HX win probability (Elo = 1500 + 55 × HX, 60 points home field). Played games are locked.
- Top two by simulated conference win % (then conference wins, then HX, then a coin flip) meet at a neutral site. This is a simplified tiebreak, not each league's full rulebook.
- Pac-12 has two members in 2026 and no title game: champion by overall record, then head-to-head, then HX.
- Title-game odds add to 200% in each league (two teams per game); league-title odds add to 100%. “<0.1%” means alive but rare; 0% means it never happened in the draws.
- Same draws as Make 12 on the rankings. Method details on The Model.