Predictive model
Head to head
Type a school or pick from the list. HX seeds an Elo rating (1500 + 55 × composite). Home-field is 60 Elo points unless Neutral site is on (Dublin, CFP, etc.). Win probability and spread come from that gap.
Home
Away
Final
9:30 CT · ESPNU · Hornet Stadium · Tape Kent St 10–31 Sacramento St
Home
Sacramento State
HX #138 · MAC
27–29
Kent St −1.3 · O/U 55.8
Away
Kent State
HX #130 · MAC
Sacramento St
46.4%
Kent St
53.6%
In-game restamp
Same HX prior. Type the score at the stamp. Not a live feed.
HX edge
-25.10
Includes home field
Pregame home win
46.4%
HX before any restamp
Projected wins
2.2 / 3.7
Season, pre-game
Unit vs unit
Each offense stat against the other side's matching defense stat, both as FBS percentiles (100 = best). A gap of 10+ points is an edge. 2026 stats through 2026-11-11; EPA, success rate, explosiveness, and line yards are opponent-adjusted (CFBD). Stats only: the HX line above is the prediction.
Sacramento St OvsKent St DSacramento St offenseKent St defense
- EPA per playEdge: Kent St D-0.147 · P10.189 · P20
- Success rateEdge: Kent St D34.5 · P544.5 · P25
- ExplosivenessEdge: Kent St D1.088 · P21.333 · P18
- Line yards (run blocking)Edge: Kent St D2.34 · P22.92 · P50
- Rushing (yards per carry)Edge: Kent St D3.28 · P63.99 · P52
- Yards per playEdge: Kent St D4.49 · P15.77 · P32
- 3rd downEdge: Kent St D31.8 · P837.8 · P55
- Havoc (offense allowed vs defense made)Edge: Kent St D18.2 · P1015.8 · P54
Kent St OvsSacramento St DKent St offenseSacramento St defense
- EPA per playEdge: Sacramento St D-0.135 · P10.183 · P23
- Success rateEdge: Sacramento St D31.1 · P043.5 · P32
- ExplosivenessEdge: Kent St O1.341 · P841.354 · P13
- Line yards (run blocking)Even2.45 · P53.32 · P5
- Rushing (yards per carry)Edge: Sacramento St D2.97 · P14.87 · P18
- Yards per playEdge: Sacramento St D4.72 · P45.77 · P32
- 3rd downEven35.3 · P2341.6 · P25
- Havoc (offense allowed vs defense made)Even18.5 · P812.4 · P9
Definitions on /stats.
Roster talent
Two-deep composite, transfers included. Unit slices sit under that. OL mass is size, not the ranking.
-6.21HX rating
-4.67No sourced talent, class, or size profile for Sacramento St yet (2026 FBS newcomer), so the roster comparison is off for this matchup.
Two-deep
Listed TWO·DEEP where available · CFBD projection otherwise| Sacramento St | Pos | Kent St |
|---|---|---|
| — | QB | #12Dru DeShields RS JR · 3-star 6'2" · 195 lb · OH |
| — | QB | #2Nolan Good RS FR · 3-star 6'2" · 200 lb · OH |
| — | RB | Mason King GR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'2" · 215 lb · IL |
| — | RB | #5Jakorion Caffey RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR 5'11" · 220 lb · OH |
| — | WR-X | #1Ardell Banks RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'4" · 195 lb · OH |
| — | WR-X | #23Maurice Stephens RS FR · 3-star 6'0" · 175 lb · KY |
| — | WR-Z | #8Da'Realyst Clark RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 5'10" · 160 lb · OH |
| — | WR-Z | #3Jay Jay Etheridge JR · 3-star 5'10" · 150 lb · OH |
| — | SLOT | #6Wayne Harris RS SO · 3-star 5'9" · 165 lb · WV |
| — | SLOT | #4Jared Kelley RS JR · 3-star 5'10" · 190 lb · OH |
| — | TE | #18Hunter Hopperton RS SR/TR · 2-star · TR 6'2" · 255 lb · OH |
| — | TE | #89Terik Mulder RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'5" · 250 lb · KY |
| — | LT | #78Tyler Meadows SO · 3-star 6'8" · 340 lb · OH |
| — | LT | #72Cecil Wilson RS JR · 3-star 6'4" · 320 lb · MN |
| — | LG | #54Dustyn Morell RS SR · 3-star 6'4" · 290 lb · MI |
| — | LG | #75Boston Crowell RS FR · 2-star 6'4" · 290 lb · OH |
| — | C | #50Ben Midea JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'2" · 320 lb · OH |
| — | C | #67Max Gembus RS FR · 3-star 6'0" · 275 lb · OH |
| — | RG | #55Jaxon Dunn RS SO · 3-star 6'3" · 320 lb · OH |
| — | RG | #62Mason Imbt RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 315 lb · PA |
| — | RT | #76Mofe Adewole RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 275 lb · MD |
| — | RT | #70Hudson Chasko RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'5" · 300 lb · CA |
| — | OL | #73William Johnson III FR · 3-star 6'3" · 270 lb · IN |
| — | LDE | #44Antonio Bottiggi RS SO · 2-star 6'2" · 255 lb · OH |
| — | LDE | #88Mohammed Hazime RS SR · 3-star 6'4" · 270 lb · MI |
| — | RDE | #33Jaihien Roy RS SO · 3-star 6'2" · 245 lb · MD |
| — | RDE | #50Garrett Dial RS SO · 3-star 6'3" · 235 lb · CO |
| — | LDT | #5Thomas Aden RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'1" · 275 lb · OH |
| — | LDT | #11Camdon Wilborn RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR 6'1" · 285 lb · OH |
| — | RDT | Darian Blachewicz SO · 3-star 6'2" · 300 lb · NJ |
| — | RDT | #8Josue Cordoba RS SO · 3-star 6'3" · 280 lb · NJ |
| — | DL | #83Garrett Long RS FR · 3-star 6'3" · 235 lb · IN |
| — | MLB | #4Rocco Nicholl RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'5" · 245 lb · PA |
| — | MLB | #35Nate Gregory RS FR/TR · 3-star · TR 5'11" · 235 lb · OH |
| — | WLB | #10Hayden Dawahare RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'4" · 245 lb · KY |
| — | WLB | #15Sayed Abuhamdeh RS JR · 2-star 6'1" · 230 lb · OH |
| — | LB | #20Rafael Terrero Jr. RS FR · 3-star 6'3" · 220 lb · PA |
| — | SLB | #17Semaj Bridgeman RS JR/TR · 4-star · TR 6'2" · 230 lb · PA |
| — | SLB | #32Trey Rubinstein SO · 3-star 6'3" · 225 lb · OH |
| — | LCB | #1A'tiq Muhammad RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 200 lb · IL |
| — | LCB | #27Lennox Lemon FR · 3-star 6'1" · 180 lb · OH |
| — | RCB | #22Davion Pritchard RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR 6'0" · 175 lb · OH |
| — | RCB | #7Angelo Stockstill RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 180 lb · IL |
| — | NB | #19DJ Barnes SR/TR · 3-star · TR 5'8" · 170 lb · FL |
| — | FS | #2Joel Cordoba SO · 3-star 6'3" · 190 lb · NJ |
| — | FS | #18Norey Johnson RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 200 lb · OH |
| — | SS | #3Derrick Jackson III SO · 3-star 6'0" · 210 lb · MI |
| — | SS | #38Clinton Robinson RS SO · 3-star 6'0" · 205 lb · PA |