Predictive model
Head to head
Type a school or pick from the list. HX seeds an Elo rating (1500 + 55 × composite). Home-field is 60 Elo points unless Neutral site is on (Dublin, CFP, etc.). Win probability and spread come from that gap.
Home
Away
Final
8:00 CT · ESPN+ · Hornet Stadium · Tape UMass 35–6 Sacramento St
Home
Sacramento State
HX #138 · MAC
27–28
UMass −1.1 · O/U 55.4
Away
Massachusetts
HX #131 · MAC
Sacramento St
47.0%
UMass
53.0%
In-game restamp
Same HX prior. Type the score at the stamp. Not a live feed.
HX edge
-21.20
Includes home field
Pregame home win
47.0%
HX before any restamp
Projected wins
2.2 / 6.0
Season, pre-game
Unit vs unit
Each offense stat against the other side's matching defense stat, both as FBS percentiles (100 = best). A gap of 10+ points is an edge. 2026 stats through 2026-11-11; EPA, success rate, explosiveness, and line yards are opponent-adjusted (CFBD). Stats only: the HX line above is the prediction.
Sacramento St OvsUMass DSacramento St offenseUMass defense
- EPA per playEdge: UMass D-0.147 · P10.164 · P27
- Success rateEdge: UMass D34.5 · P543.5 · P32
- ExplosivenessEdge: UMass D1.088 · P21.217 · P59
- Line yards (run blocking)Edge: UMass D2.34 · P23.21 · P18
- Rushing (yards per carry)Edge: UMass D3.28 · P64.11 · P46
- Yards per playEdge: UMass D4.49 · P15.07 · P74
- 3rd downEdge: UMass D31.8 · P838.0 · P54
- Havoc (offense allowed vs defense made)Edge: UMass D18.2 · P1014.8 · P34
UMass OvsSacramento St DUMass offenseSacramento St defense
- EPA per playEven0.011 · P200.183 · P23
- Success rateEven39.1 · P3243.5 · P32
- ExplosivenessEven1.149 · P131.354 · P13
- Line yards (run blocking)Edge: UMass O2.82 · P363.32 · P5
- Rushing (yards per carry)Edge: UMass O4.22 · P434.87 · P18
- Yards per playEven5.59 · P345.77 · P32
- 3rd downEdge: Sacramento St D31.4 · P741.6 · P25
- Havoc (offense allowed vs defense made)Edge: UMass O15.4 · P4212.4 · P9
Definitions on /stats.
Roster talent
Two-deep composite, transfers included. Unit slices sit under that. OL mass is size, not the ranking.
-6.21HX rating
-4.74No sourced talent, class, or size profile for Sacramento St yet (2026 FBS newcomer), so the roster comparison is off for this matchup.
Two-deep
Listed TWO·DEEP where available · CFBD projection otherwise| Sacramento St | Pos | UMass |
|---|---|---|
| — | QB | #5William Watson III RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'0" · 210 lb · MA |
| — | QB | #16Logan Inagawa SO/TR · 3-star · TR 5'11" · 210 lb · GA |
| — | RB | Jordan Washington RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR 6'1" · 215 lb · AL |
| — | RB | #6Justin Williams-Thomas RS SR/TR · 4-star · TR 6'0" · 220 lb · GA |
| — | WR-X | #2T.Y. Harding RS SR · 2-star 5'9" · 185 lb · MA |
| — | WR-X | #17Dallas Elliott RS SR · 3-star 6'3" · 200 lb · MA |
| — | WR-Z | #1Joseph Griffin Jr. RS SR/TR · 4-star · TR 6'4" · 210 lb · MA |
| — | WR-Z | #8Kezion Dia-Johnson RS SO · 3-star 6'0" · 185 lb · AZ |
| — | SLOT | #9Devin Matthews RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 5'9" · 200 lb · TX |
| — | SLOT | #3Elijah Pedro RS FR · 3-star 6'1" · 190 lb · MD |
| — | TE | #83Reece Adkins GR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'6" · 260 lb · FL |
| — | TE | #11Max Dowling RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'6" · 260 lb · NY |
| — | LT | #66Greg Knox RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'6" · 315 lb · LA |
| — | LT | #73Zachary Franks GR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'6" · 310 lb · MD |
| — | LG | #59Nick Dalessandro GR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'4" · 305 lb · OH |
| — | LG | #76Riley Bloch RS SO · 3-star 6'3" · 310 lb · MA |
| — | C | #79Aitor Urionabarrenechea RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'5" · 350 lb · CA |
| — | C | #64Peyton Miller RS JR · 3-star 6'3" · 330 lb · MD |
| — | RG | #69Brock Taylor RS SO · 3-star 6'3" · 350 lb · VA |
| — | RT | #77Jaxon King RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'7" · 315 lb · CA |
| — | RT | #78Greg Klingensmith RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'5" · 325 lb · PA |
| — | LDE | #42Andrew DePaepe RS JR/TR · 4-star · TR 6'5" · 260 lb · IA |
| — | LDE | #17Zachary Betts JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'2" · 250 lb · MD |
| — | RDE | #98William DePaepe RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR 6'6" · 260 lb · IA |
| — | RDE | #94Colin Reynolds GR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 260 lb · MA |
| — | DT | #9Justin Krueger RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR 6'4" · 270 lb · GA |
| — | DT | #99Kamarion Thomas RS FR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 295 lb · NY |
| — | NT | #55Zakar Morris RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR 6'2" · 300 lb · NY |
| — | NT | #90Tim Passmore Jr. RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'2" · 340 lb · FL |
| — | MLB | #44Timmy Hinspeter RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'1" · 235 lb · NY |
| — | MLB | #16Kendric Council JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'2" · 230 lb · MD |
| — | WLB | #5Tyler Martin RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'2" · 240 lb · MA |
| — | WLB | #15Khari Bendolph SO/TR · 3-star · TR 6'1" · 220 lb · FL |
| — | LCB | Isaiah Reed GR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'0" · 180 lb · FL |
| — | LCB | #13Raheim Sexil RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR 6'1" · 200 lb · FL |
| — | RCB | #7TJ Magee RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 5'10" · 195 lb · LA |
| — | RCB | #4Chris Stanley JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'0" · 185 lb · OH |
| — | NB | #8Michael Robinson GR/TR · 3-star · TR 5'11" · 200 lb · NJ |
| — | NB | #22Jahmad Harmon RS SR/TR · 2-star · TR 5'10" · 180 lb · IN |
| — | FS | #3Kendall Bournes SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'0" · 205 lb · NJ |
| — | FS | #1DD Snyder GR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'0" · 200 lb · FL |
| — | SS | #38Zeraun Daniel SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'1" · 220 lb · NY |
| — | SS | #20Keith Sarkodieh RS SO · 3-star 6'2" · 195 lb · MA |