Predictive model
Head to head
Type a school or pick from the list. HX seeds an Elo rating (1500 + 55 × composite). Home-field is 60 Elo points unless Neutral site is on (Dublin, CFP, etc.). Win probability and spread come from that gap.
Home
Away
Final
6:00 CT · CBSSN · Fargodome · Tape Nevada 17–31 N Dakota St
Home
North Dakota State
HX #59 · Mountain West
34–20
N Dakota St −14.2 · O/U 54.7
Away
Nevada
HX #113 · Mountain West
N Dakota St
79.1%
Nevada
20.9%
In-game restamp
Same HX prior. Type the score at the stamp. Not a live feed.
HX edge
+231.30
Includes home field
Pregame home win
79.1%
HX before any restamp
Projected wins
9.2 / 4.5
Season, pre-game
Unit vs unit
Each offense stat against the other side's matching defense stat, both as FBS percentiles (100 = best). A gap of 10+ points is an edge. 2026 stats through 2026-11-11; EPA, success rate, explosiveness, and line yards are opponent-adjusted (CFBD). Stats only: the HX line above is the prediction.
N Dakota St OvsNevada DN Dakota St offenseNevada defense
- EPA per playEven0.035 · P290.146 · P36
- Success rateEdge: Nevada D37.7 · P2139.0 · P74
- ExplosivenessEdge: N Dakota St O1.336 · P821.245 · P46
- Line yards (run blocking)Even2.71 · P223.14 · P22
- Rushing (yards per carry)Edge: Nevada D4.03 · P324.14 · P44
- Yards per playEdge: Nevada D5.38 · P264.88 · P81
- 3rd downEdge: Nevada D39.7 · P4433.3 · P79
- Havoc (offense allowed vs defense made)Even14.5 · P5315.4 · P47
Nevada OvsN Dakota St DNevada offenseN Dakota St defense
- EPA per playEdge: N Dakota St D0.017 · P21-0.016 · P85
- Success rateEdge: N Dakota St D35.4 · P737.9 · P82
- ExplosivenessEdge: Nevada O1.342 · P851.193 · P71
- Line yards (run blocking)Edge: N Dakota St D2.49 · P72.95 · P46
- Rushing (yards per carry)Edge: N Dakota St D4.24 · P453.60 · P72
- Yards per playEdge: N Dakota St D4.93 · P84.36 · P95
- 3rd downEdge: N Dakota St D35.4 · P2534.2 · P74
- Havoc (offense allowed vs defense made)Edge: N Dakota St D16.8 · P2318.5 · P84
Definitions on /stats.
Roster talent
Two-deep composite, transfers included. Unit slices sit under that. OL mass is size, not the ranking.
0.31HX rating
-2.81No sourced talent, class, or size profile for N Dakota St yet (2026 FBS newcomer), so the roster comparison is off for this matchup.
Two-deep
Listed TWO·DEEP where available · CFBD projection otherwise| N Dakota St | Pos | Nevada |
|---|---|---|
| — | QB | #6Carter Jones SO · 3-star 6'3" · 197 lb · TX |
| — | QB | #12Luke Duncan RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'6" · 215 lb · CA |
| — | RB | Dominic Kelley SO · 3-star 5'11" · 215 lb · CA |
| — | RB | #1Herschel Turner JR/TR · 3-star · TR 5'9" · 196 lb · CA |
| — | WR-X | #85Donnie Cheers RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'0" · 180 lb · AR |
| — | WR-X | #9Marshaun Brown RS JR · 3-star 6'4" · 198 lb · NV |
| — | WR-Z | #7Gary Givens III JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'2" · 194 lb · FL |
| — | WR-Z | #18Don Henry JR · 3-star 6'1" · 190 lb · LA |
| — | SLOT | #11Damien Morgan RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 5'11" · 178 lb · CA |
| — | SLOT | #3Jaceon Doss RS SR/TR · 2-star · TR 5'11" · 178 lb · CA |
| — | TE | #16DJ Asiasi RS FR · 3-star 6'2" · 248 lb · CA |
| — | TE | #83Carter Eck RS SO · 3-star 6'2" · 245 lb · NV |
| — | LT | #55Jack Foster RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'6" · 305 lb · ID |
| — | LT | #75Jose Balver-Mendoza JR · 3-star 6'5" · 300 lb · GA |
| — | LG | #76Zach Cochnauer RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'5" · 315 lb · MN |
| — | LG | #70Snoop Leota-Amaama RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'4" · 318 lb · UT |
| — | C | #59Jacob Norcross JR/TR · 2-star · TR 6'3" · 302 lb · NV |
| — | C | #58Ethan Lowell RS SO · 3-star 6'3" · 295 lb · CA |
| — | RG | #72Ethan Newman RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 305 lb · FL |
| — | RG | #73Tyler Miller RS SO · 3-star 6'2" · 310 lb · NV |
| — | RT | #66Henry Sellards RS SO · 3-star 6'4" · 305 lb · MT |
| — | LDE | #92Myles Williams RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 242 lb · CA |
| — | LDE | #4Brandon Amaniampong RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'6" · 250 lb · IL |
| — | RDE | #32Dylan LaBarbera SR/TR · 2-star · TR 6'1" · 248 lb · CA |
| — | RDE | #3Kameron Brown RS FR · 3-star 6'3" · 249 lb · CA |
| — | DT | #96Tanner Vaughan RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 270 lb · NV |
| — | DT | #91James Gillespie RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 315 lb · VA |
| — | NT | #98David Paine Jr. RS SO · 3-star 6'1" · 273 lb · TX |
| — | NT | #10Logologo Va'a RS SR/TR · 2-star · TR 6'3" · 329 lb · -- |
| — | MLB | #1Jeremy Naborne-Owens SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'1" · 235 lb · CA |
| — | MLB | #44Alosio Maluia SO · 3-star 6'1" · 220 lb · NV |
| — | WLB | #2EJ Smith SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'0" · 243 lb · CA |
| — | WLB | #11Poasa Utu RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'0" · 235 lb · TX |
| — | LCB | #12Bryson Snelling JR/TR · 2-star · TR 6'2" · 190 lb · CA |
| — | LCB | #5Zion Jones RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 179 lb · WA |
| — | RCB | Joshua Scott GR/TR · 3-star · TR 5'11" · 185 lb · CA |
| — | RCB | #17Zavien Abercrombie RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR 5'9" · 166 lb · TX |
| — | NB | #18Aiden Walker SO · 3-star 5'10" · 180 lb · TX |
| — | NB | #13Tajean Stallworth RS FR · 3-star 6'0" · 164 lb · CA |
| — | FS | #15Bishop Turner RS JR · 3-star 5'10" · 188 lb · CA |
| — | FS | #8Larry Turner-Gooden RS SR/TR · 4-star · TR 5'10" · 187 lb · CA |
| — | SS | #26Isaiah Jordan RS FR · 3-star 6'1" · 200 lb · CA |
| — | SS | #22Jaylen Webb RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'2" · 196 lb · TX |