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HASHMARK

Predictive model

Head to head

Type a school or pick from the list. HX seeds an Elo rating (1500 + 55 × composite). Home-field is 60 Elo points unless Neutral site is on (Dublin, CFP, etc.). Win probability and spread come from that gap.

Home
Away
Final

9:00 CT · FS1 · Falcon Stadium · Tape N Dakota St 38–32 Air Force

Home

Air Force
HX #101 · Mountain West
26–30

N Dakota St −4.1 · O/U 56.1

Away

North Dakota State
HX #59 · Mountain West
Air Force
39.3%
N Dakota St
60.7%

In-game restamp

Same HX prior. Type the score at the stamp. Not a live feed.

HX edge
-75.40
Includes home field
Pregame home win
39.3%
HX before any restamp
Projected wins
8.7 / 9.2
Season, pre-game

Unit vs unit

Each offense stat against the other side's matching defense stat, both as FBS percentiles (100 = best). A gap of 10+ points is an edge. 2026 stats through 2026-11-11; EPA, success rate, explosiveness, and line yards are opponent-adjusted (CFBD). Stats only: the HX line above is the prediction.

Air Force OvsN Dakota St D
Edges: O 4 · D 3
Air Force offenseN Dakota St defense
  • EPA per playEdge: N Dakota St D
    0.129 · P60
    -0.016 · P85
  • Success rateEven
    46.9 · P86
    37.9 · P82
  • ExplosivenessEdge: N Dakota St D
    1.021 · P1
    1.193 · P71
  • Line yards (run blocking)Edge: Air Force O
    3.29 · P91
    2.95 · P46
  • Rushing (yards per carry)Edge: Air Force O
    5.25 · P85
    3.60 · P72
  • Yards per playEdge: N Dakota St D
    5.49 · P31
    4.36 · P95
  • 3rd downEdge: Air Force O
    51.2 · P93
    34.2 · P74
  • Havoc (offense allowed vs defense made)Edge: Air Force O
    6.3 · P100
    18.5 · P84
N Dakota St OvsAir Force D
Edges: O 2 · D 3
N Dakota St offenseAir Force defense
  • EPA per playEven
    0.035 · P29
    0.154 · P34
  • Success rateEdge: Air Force D
    37.7 · P21
    43.3 · P35
  • ExplosivenessEdge: N Dakota St O
    1.336 · P82
    1.244 · P47
  • Line yards (run blocking)Even
    2.71 · P22
    3.12 · P24
  • Rushing (yards per carry)Even
    4.03 · P32
    4.55 · P32
  • Yards per playEdge: Air Force D
    5.38 · P26
    5.62 · P40
  • 3rd downEdge: Air Force D
    39.7 · P44
    35.7 · P67
  • Havoc (offense allowed vs defense made)Edge: N Dakota St O
    14.5 · P53
    14.0 · P26

Definitions on /stats.

Roster talent

Two-deep composite, transfers included. Unit slices sit under that. OL mass is size, not the ranking.

-2.15
HX rating
0.31

No sourced talent, class, or size profile for N Dakota St yet (2026 FBS newcomer), so the roster comparison is off for this matchup.

Two-deep

Listed TWO·DEEP where available · CFBD projection otherwise
Air ForcePosN Dakota St
#9Liam Szarka JR · 3-star
5'11" · 190 lb · CO
QB—
#5Evan Medders SO · 3-star
5'10" · 210 lb · NC
QB—
#44Rocco Conti SR · 3-star
5'8" · 190 lb · OH
RB—
#20Keegan Sack SO · 3-star
5'10" · 210 lb · WV
RB—
#2Owen Allen SR · 3-star
5'11" · 215 lb · TX
FB—
#4Kemper Hodges SR · 3-star
6'0" · 245 lb · FL
FB—
#8Jonah Dawson JR · 3-star
5'9" · 170 lb · CA
WR-X—
#10Adam Hrynciw SR · 3-star
6'3" · 180 lb · OH
WR-X—
#3Matt Long JR · 3-star
5'10" · 205 lb · CA
WR-Z—
#18Mason Hayes JR · 3-star
5'11" · 210 lb · WA
WR-Z—
#80Simon Kibbee SR · 3-star
6'6" · 250 lb · CO
TE—
#53Griffin Stalfort SR · 3-star
6'2" · 290 lb · AZ
TE—
#73Brandon Nazworth JR · 3-star
6'3" · 290 lb · CA
LT—
#76Alex Boyd SO · 3-star
6'4" · 280 lb · TN
LT—
#75Alec Falk SR · 3-star
6'5" · 315 lb · CO
LG—
#57Brody Smith JR · 2-star
6'3" · 290 lb · MO
LG—
#51Rudy Varela SR · 3-star
6'3" · 295 lb · AZ
C—
#59Johnique Thomas JR · 3-star
6'0" · 295 lb · TX
C—
#58TJ Tarascio SR · 3-star
6'3" · 310 lb · CA
RG—
#72Jon Ashford JR · 3-star
6'2" · 320 lb · OK
RG—
#55Luke Vonderhaar SR · 2-star
6'4" · 285 lb · IA
RT—
#52Nathan Elwood SR · 3-star
6'3" · 290 lb · WA
RT—
#45Jaylin Reese JR · 2-star
5'11" · 235 lb · MN
DE—
#50Grady Forsythe JR · 3-star
6'4" · 235 lb · CO
DE—
#59Chaz Barnett JR · 3-star
6'5" · 260 lb · CO
DT—
#99Jayden Oquendo SR · 2-star
6'2" · 285 lb · KS
DT—
#93Andrew Tillett SR · 2-star
6'3" · 290 lb · WA
NT—
#97Bennett Williams JR · 2-star
6'2" · 285 lb · IL
NT—
#8Dallas Daley SR · 3-star
6'1" · 215 lb · WA
MLB—
#51Vinnie Canosa JR · 3-star
6'1" · 230 lb · GA
MLB—
#6Blake Fletcher SR · 3-star
6'1" · 230 lb · WI
WLB—
Luke Fisher SR · 3-star
6'0" · 225 lb · MS
WLB—
#30Isaac Hubert SR · 3-star
6'1" · 225 lb · GA
OLB—
#47Jake Kepler JR · 3-star
6'2" · 230 lb · IL
OLB—
#2Korey Johnson JR · 3-star
6'0" · 195 lb · AZ
CB—
#4Mikhail Seiken JR · 2-star
5'11" · 190 lb · MD
CB—
#22Ehimen Oyamendan SO · 3-star
5'10" · 190 lb · CA
CB2—
#10Jerome Drain SO · 3-star
6'3" · 190 lb · TX
CB2—
#36Max Mustell SO · 3-star
5'10" · 175 lb · FL
FS—
#13Joseph Kramlich SO · 2-star
5'10" · 175 lb · ND
FS—
#25Cade Paterson SO · 3-star
5'11" · 195 lb · CA
SS—
#3Kyle Chen JR · 3-star
6'0" · 200 lb · WA
SS—
#26Alexander Perez SO · 3-star
5'10" · 200 lb · NV
SPUR—
#7Nick Beckwith JR · 3-star
6'0" · 205 lb · LA
SPUR—