Predictive model
Head to head
Type a school or pick from the list. HX seeds an Elo rating (1500 + 55 × composite). Home-field is 60 Elo points unless Neutral site is on (Dublin, CFP, etc.). Win probability and spread come from that gap.
Home
Away
10:00 CT · CW · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Home
Hawaiʻi
HX #118 · Mountain West
24–32
N Dakota St −7.4 · O/U 56.0
Away
North Dakota State
HX #59 · Mountain West
Hawaiʻi
32.2%
N Dakota St
67.8%
In-game restamp
Same HX prior. Type the score at the stamp. Not a live feed.
HX edge
-129.70
Includes home field
Pregame home win
32.2%
HX before any restamp
Projected wins
4.5 / 9.2
Season, pre-game
Unit vs unit
Each offense stat against the other side's matching defense stat, both as FBS percentiles (100 = best). A gap of 10+ points is an edge. 2026 stats through 2026-11-11; EPA, success rate, explosiveness, and line yards are opponent-adjusted (CFBD). Stats only: the HX line above is the prediction.
Hawaiʻi OvsN Dakota St DHawaiʻi offenseN Dakota St defense
- EPA per playEdge: N Dakota St D0.031 · P28-0.016 · P85
- Success rateEdge: N Dakota St D39.4 · P3537.9 · P82
- ExplosivenessEdge: N Dakota St D1.140 · P121.193 · P71
- Line yards (run blocking)Even2.83 · P382.95 · P46
- Rushing (yards per carry)Edge: N Dakota St D3.25 · P53.60 · P72
- Yards per playEdge: N Dakota St D5.17 · P184.36 · P95
- 3rd downEdge: N Dakota St D40.6 · P5534.2 · P74
- Havoc (offense allowed vs defense made)Edge: N Dakota St D16.8 · P2318.5 · P84
N Dakota St OvsHawaiʻi DN Dakota St offenseHawaiʻi defense
- EPA per playEdge: N Dakota St O0.035 · P290.226 · P12
- Success rateEdge: N Dakota St O37.7 · P2146.7 · P11
- ExplosivenessEdge: N Dakota St O1.336 · P821.198 · P68
- Line yards (run blocking)Even2.71 · P223.08 · P28
- Rushing (yards per carry)Edge: N Dakota St O4.03 · P324.85 · P18
- Yards per playEven5.38 · P265.98 · P21
- 3rd downEdge: Hawaiʻi D39.7 · P4436.1 · P62
- Havoc (offense allowed vs defense made)Edge: N Dakota St O14.5 · P5313.9 · P23
Definitions on /stats.
Roster talent
Two-deep composite, transfers included. Unit slices sit under that. OL mass is size, not the ranking.
-3.14HX rating
0.31No sourced talent, class, or size profile for N Dakota St yet (2026 FBS newcomer), so the roster comparison is off for this matchup.
Two-deep
Listed TWO·DEEP where available · CFBD projection otherwise| Hawaiʻi | Pos | N Dakota St |
|---|---|---|
#12Micah Alejado RS SO · 3-star 5'10" · 180 lb · NV | QB | — |
#10Bjorn Jurgensen RS FR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 200 lb · FL | QB | — |
Cam Barfield RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 5'7" · 190 lb · NV | RB | — |
#1DeVon Rice RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR 5'9" · 180 lb · NV | RB | — |
#7Tre' Griffiths RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 205 lb · TX | WR-Z | — |
#11Devin Alves RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 195 lb · FL | WR-Z | — |
#2Audric Harris JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'1" · 190 lb · CA | SLOT | — |
#13Koa Eldredge RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'0" · 190 lb · -- | SLOT | — |
#83Josiah Fetui SO · 3-star 6'3" · 185 lb · -- | WR | — |
#17Nick Delgadillo RS JR · 3-star 6'0" · 190 lb · CA | WR | — |
#18Blaze Kamoku SR/TR · 3-star · TR 5'6" · 185 lb · -- | WR-Y | — |
#6Kainoa Carvalho RS FR · 3-star 5'6" · 165 lb · -- | WR-Y | — |
#9Devon Tauaefa RS SR · 3-star 6'5" · 230 lb · -- | TE | — |
#85Oakie Salave'a RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'2" · 240 lb · -- | TE | — |
#56Boogie Henderson RS SO · 3-star 6'4" · 310 lb · CA | LT | — |
#75Khalil Walker RS SR/TR · 2-star · TR 6'5" · 300 lb · OH | LT | — |
#58Denaris DeRosa Jr. RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 285 lb · CA | LG | — |
#62Lautaimi Manuma RS SO · 3-star 6'3" · 300 lb · -- | LG | — |
#57Ethan Spencer RS SR · 2-star 6'2" · 300 lb · -- | C | — |
#50Tu'i Muti RS SO · 3-star 6'1" · 300 lb · -- | C | — |
#73Lipe Moala RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'6" · 345 lb · CA | RG | — |
#79Judah Kaio RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 305 lb · -- | RG | — |
#52Dean Briski RS SR · 3-star 6'5" · 305 lb · -- | RT | — |
#55Jay Tauala-Harris RS SO · 3-star 6'3" · 290 lb · CA | RT | — |
#51Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina RS JR · 3-star 6'4" · 245 lb · -- | LDE | — |
#91Josh Sagapolutele RS JR · 3-star 6'0" · 255 lb · -- | LDE | — |
#10Ka'eo Akana RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 245 lb · -- | RDE | — |
#56Spencer Elliott SR/TR · 2-star · TR 6'3" · 255 lb · OR | RDE | — |
#52Luther McCoy GR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'5" · 270 lb · FL | DT | — |
#97Jordan Lynch RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 290 lb · TX | DT | — |
#95Geoffrey Speight Jr. SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'1" · 280 lb · GA | NT | — |
#88Elijah Williams RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 300 lb · AL | NT | — |
#12Wynden Ho'ohuli RS SR/TR · 4-star · TR 6'3" · 240 lb · -- | MLB | — |
#11Jamih Otis SR · 3-star 5'11" · 220 lb · NV | WLB | — |
#8Matteus Ioane SO · 3-star 6'2" · 225 lb · -- | WLB | — |
#13Elijah Gipson SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'0" · 170 lb · CA | LCB | — |
Jeremiah Hughes JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'0" · 180 lb · NV | LCB | — |
#1Caleb Brown RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'2" · 200 lb · IA | RCB | — |
#6Zion Allen RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'1" · 175 lb · CA | RCB | — |
#4Elijah Palmer SR · 3-star 5'8" · 185 lb · NV | NB | — |
#25Matagi Thompson RS SR · 2-star 6'2" · 190 lb · -- | FS | — |
#24Kodi DeCambra RS JR/TR · 4-star · TR 5'11" · 190 lb · -- | FS | — |
#2Kona Moore RS SR · 3-star 6'0" · 190 lb · -- | SS | — |
#3Joenel Figueroa SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'0" · 190 lb · MA | SS | — |