Predictive model
Head to head
Type a school or pick from the list. HX seeds an Elo rating (1500 + 55 × composite). Home-field is 60 Elo points unless Neutral site is on (Dublin, CFP, etc.). Win probability and spread come from that gap.
Home
Away
Final
9:20 CT · CW · University Stadium (NM) · Tape N Dakota St 16–21 New Mexico
Home
New Mexico
HX #50 · Mountain West
31–24
New Mexico −6.3 · O/U 55.1
Away
North Dakota State
HX #59 · Mountain West
New Mexico
65.7%
N Dakota St
34.3%
In-game restamp
Same HX prior. Type the score at the stamp. Not a live feed.
HX edge
+112.60
Includes home field
Pregame home win
65.7%
HX before any restamp
Projected wins
10.6 / 9.2
Season, pre-game
Unit vs unit
Each offense stat against the other side's matching defense stat, both as FBS percentiles (100 = best). A gap of 10+ points is an edge. 2026 stats through 2026-11-11; EPA, success rate, explosiveness, and line yards are opponent-adjusted (CFBD). Stats only: the HX line above is the prediction.
New Mexico OvsN Dakota St DNew Mexico offenseN Dakota St defense
- EPA per playEdge: N Dakota St D0.084 · P46-0.016 · P85
- Success rateEdge: N Dakota St D40.4 · P4037.9 · P82
- ExplosivenessEven1.292 · P681.193 · P71
- Line yards (run blocking)Edge: N Dakota St D2.70 · P192.95 · P46
- Rushing (yards per carry)Even4.76 · P673.60 · P72
- Yards per playEdge: N Dakota St D5.75 · P484.36 · P95
- 3rd downEdge: N Dakota St D40.5 · P5334.2 · P74
- Havoc (offense allowed vs defense made)Edge: N Dakota St D13.3 · P7018.5 · P84
N Dakota St OvsNew Mexico DN Dakota St offenseNew Mexico defense
- EPA per playEdge: New Mexico D0.035 · P29-0.053 · P93
- Success rateEdge: New Mexico D37.7 · P2134.6 · P94
- ExplosivenessEdge: N Dakota St O1.336 · P821.387 · P8
- Line yards (run blocking)Edge: New Mexico D2.71 · P222.10 · P99
- Rushing (yards per carry)Edge: New Mexico D4.03 · P322.42 · P99
- Yards per playEdge: New Mexico D5.38 · P264.16 · P99
- 3rd downEdge: New Mexico D39.7 · P4429.8 · P95
- Havoc (offense allowed vs defense made)Edge: New Mexico D14.5 · P5325.7 · P100
Definitions on /stats.
Roster talent
Two-deep composite, transfers included. Unit slices sit under that. OL mass is size, not the ranking.
1.27HX rating
0.31No sourced talent, class, or size profile for N Dakota St yet (2026 FBS newcomer), so the roster comparison is off for this matchup.
Two-deep
Listed TWO·DEEP where available · CFBD projection otherwise| New Mexico | Pos | N Dakota St |
|---|---|---|
#12James Laubstein RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 209 lb · CT | QB | — |
#10Luke Moga RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR 6'1" · 208 lb · AZ | QB | — |
#22Scottre Humphrey SR/TR · 3-star · TR 5'10" · 215 lb · WA | RB | — |
#21Kiefer Sibley JR/TR · 3-star · TR 5'9" · 179 lb · TX | RB | — |
#14DJ Darling FR · 3-star 5'11" · 175 lb · TX | WR | — |
Miles Williams GR · 3-star 6'0" · 192 lb · OR | WR | — |
#5Troy Omeire SR · 4-star 6'5" · 226 lb · TX | WR2 | — |
#1Shawn Miller GR · 3-star 6'0" · 205 lb · AZ | WR2 | — |
#11Massiah Mingo FR · 3-star 5'9" · 170 lb · NV | WR3 | — |
#81Bailen George FR · 3-star 6'0" · 160 lb · TX | WR3 | — |
#88Cade Keith JR · 3-star 6'5" · 245 lb · NV | TE | — |
#80Max Leeper FR · 3-star 6'7" · 228 lb · CA | TE | — |
#7Tripp Walsh RS JR/TR · 2-star · TR 6'5" · 245 lb · WI | TE2 | — |
#85Simon Mapa SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 255 lb · CA | TE2 | — |
#79Cole Millward RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'5" · 297 lb · UT | LT | — |
#55Elvin Harris SR · 3-star 6'6" · 315 lb · FL | LT | — |
#51Malik Aliane RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'2" · 320 lb · -- | LG | — |
#60Jubilee Siitia-Tasi SO · 3-star 6'2" · 302 lb · WA | LG | — |
#59Kaden Robnett RS JR/TR · 2-star · TR 6'2" · 302 lb · WA | C | — |
#76Braden Chick FR · 3-star 6'2" · 285 lb · AZ | C | — |
#58Jaymar Tasi SO · 3-star 6'2" · 308 lb · WA | RG | — |
#54JoJo Matautia RS FR · 2-star 5'10" · 305 lb · WA | RG | — |
#68Tyler Lawrence JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'5" · 306 lb · WA | RT | — |
#71Danzel Newell FR · 3-star 6'5" · 265 lb · IL | RT | — |
#10Darren Agu GR · 3-star 6'6" · 252 lb · -- | DE | — |
#22Jalen Charles JR · 3-star 6'3" · 245 lb · TX | DE | — |
#45Brett Karhu GR · 3-star 6'1" · 226 lb · TX | DE2 | — |
#36Albert Tuakalau JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'4" · 245 lb · CA | DE2 | — |
#15Xavier Slayton GR · 2-star 6'2" · 255 lb · IL | DT | — |
#46Jake DeVos SO · 2-star 6'2" · 255 lb · OR | DT | — |
#92Brian Booker RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 330 lb · TX | DT2 | — |
#94Jalen McIver JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 278 lb · AL | DT2 | — |
#6Jaxton Eck SR · 3-star 6'1" · 228 lb · SD | LB | — |
#18Clay Martineau JR · 3-star 6'3" · 228 lb · OR | LB | — |
#2Mercury Swaim RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 5'11" · 216 lb · PA | LB2 | — |
#23Nick Wheeler SO · 3-star 6'0" · 208 lb · TX | LB2 | — |
#5Frankie Edwards III JR · 3-star 5'10" · 178 lb · CA | CB | — |
#1Jahmir Torres SO · 3-star 5'10" · 182 lb · CA | CB | — |
#8Ormanie Arnold RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 5'8" · 178 lb · CA | CB2 | — |
#9Eric McClain JR/TR · 3-star · TR 5'11" · 183 lb · IL | CB2 | — |
#12Drew Speech GR · 3-star 6'2" · 204 lb · CA | S | — |
#38Jayden Flaker GR · 3-star 6'2" · 235 lb · ME | S | — |
Austin Brawley SR/TR · 3-star · TR 5'10" · 180 lb · OH | S2 | — |
#20Kevin Longstreet SR · 3-star 5'8" · 185 lb · CA | S2 | — |
#7Tavian Combs RS SR · 2-star 6'2" · 198 lb · TX | S3 | — |
#3CJ McBean SO · 3-star 6'1" · 195 lb · CA | S3 | — |