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HASHMARK

Predictive model

Head to head

Type a school or pick from the list. HX seeds an Elo rating (1500 + 55 × composite). Home-field is 60 Elo points unless Neutral site is on (Dublin, CFP, etc.). Win probability and spread come from that gap.

Home
Away
Final

9:30 CT · ESPN · Hornet Stadium · Tape N Dakota St 31–10 Sacramento St

Home

Sacramento State
HX #138 · MAC
18–38

N Dakota St −19.3 · O/U 55.8

Away

North Dakota State
HX #59 · Mountain West
Sacramento St
15.2%
N Dakota St
84.8%

In-game restamp

Same HX prior. Type the score at the stamp. Not a live feed.

HX edge
-298.80
Includes home field
Pregame home win
15.2%
HX before any restamp
Projected wins
2.2 / 9.2
Season, pre-game

Unit vs unit

Each offense stat against the other side's matching defense stat, both as FBS percentiles (100 = best). A gap of 10+ points is an edge. 2026 stats through 2026-11-11; EPA, success rate, explosiveness, and line yards are opponent-adjusted (CFBD). Stats only: the HX line above is the prediction.

Sacramento St OvsN Dakota St D
Edges: O 0 · D 8
Sacramento St offenseN Dakota St defense
  • EPA per playEdge: N Dakota St D
    -0.147 · P1
    -0.016 · P85
  • Success rateEdge: N Dakota St D
    34.5 · P5
    37.9 · P82
  • ExplosivenessEdge: N Dakota St D
    1.088 · P2
    1.193 · P71
  • Line yards (run blocking)Edge: N Dakota St D
    2.34 · P2
    2.95 · P46
  • Rushing (yards per carry)Edge: N Dakota St D
    3.28 · P6
    3.60 · P72
  • Yards per playEdge: N Dakota St D
    4.49 · P1
    4.36 · P95
  • 3rd downEdge: N Dakota St D
    31.8 · P8
    34.2 · P74
  • Havoc (offense allowed vs defense made)Edge: N Dakota St D
    18.2 · P10
    18.5 · P84
N Dakota St OvsSacramento St D
Edges: O 5 · D 1
N Dakota St offenseSacramento St defense
  • EPA per playEven
    0.035 · P29
    0.183 · P23
  • Success rateEdge: Sacramento St D
    37.7 · P21
    43.5 · P32
  • ExplosivenessEdge: N Dakota St O
    1.336 · P82
    1.354 · P13
  • Line yards (run blocking)Edge: N Dakota St O
    2.71 · P22
    3.32 · P5
  • Rushing (yards per carry)Edge: N Dakota St O
    4.03 · P32
    4.87 · P18
  • Yards per playEven
    5.38 · P26
    5.77 · P32
  • 3rd downEdge: N Dakota St O
    39.7 · P44
    41.6 · P25
  • Havoc (offense allowed vs defense made)Edge: N Dakota St O
    14.5 · P53
    12.4 · P9

Definitions on /stats.

Roster talent

Two-deep composite, transfers included. Unit slices sit under that. OL mass is size, not the ranking.

-6.21
HX rating
0.31

No sourced talent, class, or size profile for Sacramento St yet (2026 FBS newcomer), so the roster comparison is off for this matchup.

Two-deep

Listed TWO·DEEP where available · CFBD projection otherwise
Sacramento StPosN Dakota St