Predictive model
Head to head
Type a school or pick from the list. HX seeds an Elo rating (1500 + 55 × composite). Home-field is 60 Elo points unless Neutral site is on (Dublin, CFP, etc.). Win probability and spread come from that gap.
Home
Away
2:30 CT · CBSSN · CEFCU Stadium
Home
San José State
HX #116 · Mountain West
24–31
N Dakota St −6.8 · O/U 55.8
Away
North Dakota State
HX #59 · Mountain West
San José St
33.2%
N Dakota St
66.8%
In-game restamp
Same HX prior. Type the score at the stamp. Not a live feed.
HX edge
-121.10
Includes home field
Pregame home win
33.2%
HX before any restamp
Projected wins
6.1 / 9.2
Season, pre-game
Unit vs unit
Each offense stat against the other side's matching defense stat, both as FBS percentiles (100 = best). A gap of 10+ points is an edge. 2026 stats through 2026-11-11; EPA, success rate, explosiveness, and line yards are opponent-adjusted (CFBD). Stats only: the HX line above is the prediction.
San José St OvsN Dakota St DSan José St offenseN Dakota St defense
- EPA per playEdge: N Dakota St D0.014 · P20-0.016 · P85
- Success rateEdge: N Dakota St D33.8 · P337.9 · P82
- ExplosivenessEdge: N Dakota St D1.262 · P571.193 · P71
- Line yards (run blocking)Edge: N Dakota St D2.68 · P162.95 · P46
- Rushing (yards per carry)Edge: N Dakota St D3.53 · P123.60 · P72
- Yards per playEdge: N Dakota St D5.38 · P264.36 · P95
- 3rd downEdge: N Dakota St D30.4 · P434.2 · P74
- Havoc (offense allowed vs defense made)Edge: N Dakota St D16.7 · P2618.5 · P84
N Dakota St OvsSan José St DN Dakota St offenseSan José St defense
- EPA per playEdge: San José St D0.035 · P290.080 · P58
- Success rateEven37.7 · P2145.2 · P20
- ExplosivenessEdge: San José St D1.336 · P821.120 · P93
- Line yards (run blocking)Edge: San José St D2.71 · P222.81 · P63
- Rushing (yards per carry)Edge: San José St D4.03 · P323.93 · P55
- Yards per playEdge: San José St D5.38 · P265.32 · P63
- 3rd downEdge: San José St D39.7 · P4436.4 · P61
- Havoc (offense allowed vs defense made)Even14.5 · P5315.7 · P51
Definitions on /stats.
Roster talent
Two-deep composite, transfers included. Unit slices sit under that. OL mass is size, not the ranking.
-2.98HX rating
0.31No sourced talent, class, or size profile for N Dakota St yet (2026 FBS newcomer), so the roster comparison is off for this matchup.
Two-deep
Listed TWO·DEEP where available · CFBD projection otherwise| San José St | Pos | N Dakota St |
|---|---|---|
#3Luke Weaver RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 210 lb · CA | QB | — |
#8Robert McDaniel RS FR · 3-star 6'2" · 205 lb · CA | QB | — |
#6Jabari Bates RS SR · 3-star 5'7" · 180 lb · CA | RB | — |
#21Isaiah Carlson RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'2" · 220 lb · WA | RB | — |
#13Cooper Hoch RS JR · 3-star 6'3" · 200 lb · CA | WR | — |
#4Dominique McKenzie RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR 5'11" · 180 lb · UT | WR | — |
#1Carson Clark FR · 3-star 5'9" · 170 lb · CA | WR2 | — |
Jordan Anderson RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR 5'11" · 170 lb · CA | WR2 | — |
#10Anthony Ivey RS SR/TR · 4-star · TR 5'11" · 190 lb · PA | WR3 | — |
#9Jase Nix RS FR · 3-star 5'9" · 170 lb · CA | WR3 | — |
#83Kamaehu Kopa-Kaawalauole RS JR · 3-star 6'4" · 225 lb · HI | TE | — |
#88Ryan Boultwood RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 230 lb · CA | TE | — |
#54Daniel Moleni RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'2" · 290 lb · UT | LT | — |
#70Ikinasio Tupou RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR 6'6" · 210 lb · CA | LT | — |
#56Simeon Afalava SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 285 lb · CA | LG | — |
#72Lavaka Taukeiaho RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'2" · 320 lb · UT | LG | — |
#75Joseph Harbert RS SR · 3-star 6'3" · 290 lb · CA | C | — |
#77Daniel Tuliau RS FR · 3-star 6'3" · 305 lb · CA | C | — |
#62Tyler Chen RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'2" · 280 lb · CA | RG | — |
#64Nathan Balestrieri RS JR · 3-star 6'1" · 300 lb · CA | RG | — |
#76Manuel Serna RS SO · 3-star 6'5" · 295 lb · CA | RT | — |
#63Brian Tapu RS FR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'5" · 315 lb · -- | RT | — |
#45Jeremiah Tuiileila RS FR · 3-star 6'3" · 255 lb · CA | DE | — |
#89Etu Finau RS SR · 2-star 6'4" · 245 lb · CA | DE | — |
#57Justin Stearns RS SR · 3-star 6'2" · 250 lb · CA | DE2 | — |
#90Jayland McGlothen JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'2" · 280 lb · NV | DE2 | — |
#51Solomone Langi SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'0" · 295 lb · UT | NT | — |
#91Auma Jennings FR · 3-star 6'0" · 310 lb · CA | NT | — |
#6Ethan Powell RS SR · 3-star 6'2" · 230 lb · CA | LB | — |
#24Malakai Hoeft RS SR · 3-star 6'2" · 220 lb · CA | LB | — |
#3Naseri Danielson RS JR · 3-star 6'0" · 220 lb · CA | LB2 | — |
#19Cayden Woolwine RS SO · 3-star 6'1" · 210 lb · CA | LB2 | — |
#4Dylan Lee RS JR · 3-star 6'1" · 230 lb · CA | LB3 | — |
#53Brady Van Bennekum RS JR · 3-star 6'2" · 215 lb · CA | LB3 | — |
#7Aizik Mahuka JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 225 lb · -- | LB4 | — |
#97John Norwood RS SR · 3-star 6'3" · 220 lb · CA | LB4 | — |
Isaiah Buxton RS SO · 3-star 6'0" · 170 lb · CA | CB | — |
#8Runye Norton SR · 3-star 5'10" · 170 lb · FL | CB | — |
#32Caleb Womack RS SR · 2-star 5'10" · 180 lb · CA | CB2 | — |
#14Jayden Robertson JR · 3-star 5'11" · 170 lb · NV | CB2 | — |
#39Tuli Tagovailoa-Amosa SO · 3-star 5'10" · 200 lb · -- | FS | — |
#13Pierce Walker RS SO/TR · 2-star · TR 5'10" · 190 lb · OR | FS | — |
#1Brian Dukes Jr. RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 215 lb · CA | SS | — |
#21Charles Cox III SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'0" · 190 lb · CA | SS | — |