Predictive model
Head to head
Type a school or pick from the list. HX seeds an Elo rating (1500 + 55 × composite). Home-field is 60 Elo points unless Neutral site is on (Dublin, CFP, etc.). Win probability and spread come from that gap.
Home
Away
Final
6:00 CT · CW · Allegiant Stadium · Tape N Dakota St 7–13 UNLV
Home
UNLV
HX #85 · Mountain West
28–29
N Dakota St −1.2 · O/U 56.3
Away
North Dakota State
HX #59 · Mountain West
UNLV
46.7%
N Dakota St
53.3%
In-game restamp
Same HX prior. Type the score at the stamp. Not a live feed.
HX edge
-23.10
Includes home field
Pregame home win
46.7%
HX before any restamp
Projected wins
6.5 / 9.2
Season, pre-game
Unit vs unit
Each offense stat against the other side's matching defense stat, both as FBS percentiles (100 = best). A gap of 10+ points is an edge. 2026 stats through 2026-11-11; EPA, success rate, explosiveness, and line yards are opponent-adjusted (CFBD). Stats only: the HX line above is the prediction.
UNLV OvsN Dakota St DUNLV offenseN Dakota St defense
- EPA per playEdge: N Dakota St D0.038 · P31-0.016 · P85
- Success rateEdge: N Dakota St D36.9 · P1437.9 · P82
- ExplosivenessEven1.292 · P681.193 · P71
- Line yards (run blocking)Even2.93 · P522.95 · P46
- Rushing (yards per carry)Edge: N Dakota St D4.53 · P623.60 · P72
- Yards per playEdge: N Dakota St D5.72 · P454.36 · P95
- 3rd downEven42.6 · P6934.2 · P74
- Havoc (offense allowed vs defense made)Edge: N Dakota St D16.2 · P3318.5 · P84
N Dakota St OvsUNLV DN Dakota St offenseUNLV defense
- EPA per playEdge: UNLV D0.035 · P290.125 · P45
- Success rateEdge: UNLV D37.7 · P2142.8 · P40
- ExplosivenessEdge: N Dakota St O1.336 · P821.248 · P45
- Line yards (run blocking)Edge: N Dakota St O2.71 · P223.43 · P3
- Rushing (yards per carry)Edge: N Dakota St O4.03 · P325.25 · P7
- Yards per playEven5.38 · P265.92 · P23
- 3rd downEven39.7 · P4440.2 · P36
- Havoc (offense allowed vs defense made)Edge: N Dakota St O14.5 · P5314.0 · P26
Definitions on /stats.
Roster talent
Two-deep composite, transfers included. Unit slices sit under that. OL mass is size, not the ranking.
-1.20HX rating
0.31No sourced talent, class, or size profile for N Dakota St yet (2026 FBS newcomer), so the roster comparison is off for this matchup.
Two-deep
Listed TWO·DEEP where available · CFBD projection otherwise| UNLV | Pos | N Dakota St |
|---|---|---|
#11Jackson Arnold SR/TR · 5-star · TR 6'1" · 220 lb · TX | QB | — |
#1Alex Orji RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 240 lb · TX | QB | — |
#9Jai'Den Thomas SR · 3-star 5'9" · 195 lb · GA | RB | — |
Jaylon Glover RS SR/TR · 4-star · TR 5'9" · 210 lb · FL | RB | — |
#8Taeshaun Lyons RS JR · 4-star 6'1" · 190 lb · CA | WR-Z | — |
#17Amorion Walker RS SR · 3-star 6'4" · 190 lb · LA | WR-Z | — |
#6Kayden McGee RS SO · 3-star 6'0" · 170 lb · OK | WR | — |
#2Taz Reddicks RS JR · 3-star 5'11" · 195 lb · FL | WR | — |
#4DeAngelo Irvin Jr. SR · 3-star 5'8" · 170 lb · OK | WR2 | — |
#5Tavian McNair RS FR · 3-star 6'2" · 185 lb · NV | WR2 | — |
#84Keyan Burnett RS SR/TR · 4-star · TR 6'6" · 250 lb · CA | TE | — |
#85Matt Byrnes RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'6" · 250 lb · IL | TE | — |
#72Will Thomas RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'7" · 305 lb · OK | LT | — |
#70Alekai Afoa JR · 3-star 6'4" · 295 lb · CA | LT | — |
#77Colton Thomasson RS JR/TR · 4-star · TR 6'8" · 325 lb · TX | LG | — |
#64Joe Metzger RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'5" · 310 lb · NJ | LG | — |
#79Austin Boyd SR · 3-star 6'4" · 305 lb · UT | C | — |
#66BJ Tolo RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'1" · 320 lb · CA | C | — |
#74Amare Taase RS SO · 3-star 6'4" · 330 lb · AZ | RG | — |
#55Griffin Scroggs RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 330 lb · GA | RG | — |
#78Jackson Brown RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'6" · 310 lb · CA | RT | — |
#71Ed Haynes RS JR · 3-star 6'4" · 310 lb · NV | RT | — |
#42Andre Porter RS SO · 3-star 6'2" · 245 lb · NV | LDE | — |
#91Elias Rudolph RS SO/TR · 4-star · TR 6'5" · 205 lb · FL | LDE | — |
#44Kal-El Togafau RS FR · 3-star 6'3" · 270 lb · CA | RDE | — |
#32Kenji Scanlan RS FR · 3-star 6'2" · 245 lb · WA | RDE | — |
#16Mohamed Altayeb RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'4" · 290 lb · CO | LDT | — |
#54Poe Purcell FR · 3-star 6'3" · 320 lb · NV | LDT | — |
#94Lucas Conti RS JR · 3-star 6'5" · 295 lb · CA | RDT | — |
#90Eliah Logo RS FR · 3-star 6'2" · 310 lb · NV | RDT | — |
#88Mo Abbasher JR · 3-star 6'3" · 305 lb · TX | DL | — |
#8Kamuela Ka'aihue SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'2" · 240 lb · HI | MLB | — |
#3Dee Crayton RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'2" · 230 lb · GA | MLB | — |
#23Cam Santee SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 235 lb · OH | WLB | — |
#15Blesyng Alualu-Tuiolemotu RS JR · 3-star 6'1" · 220 lb · HI | WLB | — |
#5Quandarius Keyes SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'1" · 185 lb · MS | LCB | — |
#13Jaylen Allen RS SO · 3-star 6'0" · 185 lb · NV | LCB | — |
#2Denver Harris RS SR/TR · 5-star · TR 6'0" · 190 lb · TX | RCB | — |
#24Avery Helm RS SR/TR · 4-star · TR 6'1" · 185 lb · TX | RCB | — |
#1Mumu Bin-Wahad RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 5'11" · 190 lb · GA | NB | — |
#4Tony-Louis Nkuba RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR 6'1" · 195 lb · TX | NB | — |
#10Tre Fulton RS SO · 3-star 6'3" · 190 lb · CA | FS | — |
#20Landyn Cleveland JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'0" · 190 lb · TX | FS | — |
#7Jake Pope RS SR/TR · 4-star · TR 6'1" · 200 lb · GA | SS | — |
#14Logan Christensen SO · 3-star 6'0" · 200 lb · -- | SS | — |