Predictive model
Head to head
Type a school or pick from the list. HX seeds an Elo rating (1500 + 55 × composite). Home-field is 60 Elo points unless Neutral site is on (Dublin, CFP, etc.). Win probability and spread come from that gap.
Home
Away
3:00 CT · CW · Fargodome
Home
North Dakota State
HX #59 · Mountain West
41–14
N Dakota St −26.6 · O/U 54.7
Away
Northern Illinois
HX #135 · MAC
N Dakota St
90.3%
NIU
9.7%
In-game restamp
Same HX prior. Type the score at the stamp. Not a live feed.
HX edge
+387.80
Includes home field
Pregame home win
90.3%
HX before any restamp
Projected wins
9.2 / 1.1
Season, pre-game
Unit vs unit
Each offense stat against the other side's matching defense stat, both as FBS percentiles (100 = best). A gap of 10+ points is an edge. 2026 stats through 2026-11-11; EPA, success rate, explosiveness, and line yards are opponent-adjusted (CFBD). Stats only: the HX line above is the prediction.
N Dakota St OvsNIU DN Dakota St offenseNIU defense
- EPA per playEdge: N Dakota St O0.035 · P290.256 · P6
- Success rateEdge: N Dakota St O37.7 · P2148.6 · P2
- ExplosivenessEdge: N Dakota St O1.336 · P821.303 · P25
- Line yards (run blocking)Edge: NIU D2.71 · P223.03 · P37
- Rushing (yards per carry)Edge: N Dakota St O4.03 · P325.23 · P8
- Yards per playEdge: N Dakota St O5.38 · P266.44 · P8
- 3rd downEdge: N Dakota St O39.7 · P4454.4 · P0
- Havoc (offense allowed vs defense made)Edge: N Dakota St O14.5 · P5310.0 · P1
NIU OvsN Dakota St DNIU offenseN Dakota St defense
- EPA per playEdge: N Dakota St D-0.014 · P11-0.016 · P85
- Success rateEdge: N Dakota St D39.0 · P3137.9 · P82
- ExplosivenessEven1.291 · P661.193 · P71
- Line yards (run blocking)Edge: NIU O3.08 · P722.95 · P46
- Rushing (yards per carry)Edge: N Dakota St D3.95 · P303.60 · P72
- Yards per playEdge: N Dakota St D5.22 · P194.36 · P95
- 3rd downEdge: N Dakota St D33.1 · P1234.2 · P74
- Havoc (offense allowed vs defense made)Edge: N Dakota St D16.7 · P2618.5 · P84
Definitions on /stats.
Roster talent
Two-deep composite, transfers included. Unit slices sit under that. OL mass is size, not the ranking.
0.31HX rating
-5.65No sourced talent, class, or size profile for N Dakota St yet (2026 FBS newcomer), so the roster comparison is off for this matchup.
Two-deep
Listed TWO·DEEP where available · CFBD projection otherwise| N Dakota St | Pos | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| — | QB | #14Jalen Macon RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'5" · 230 lb · TN |
| — | QB | #2Brady Davidson SO · 3-star 6'5" · 230 lb · MO |
| — | RB | #45Telly Johnson Jr. JR · 3-star 5'11" · 215 lb · GA |
| — | RB | #24Elijah Porter RS SO · 2-star 5'11" · 208 lb · IA |
| — | WR-X | #7Cam Thompson RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'0" · 200 lb · OH |
| — | WR-X | La'Don Bryant RS SO · 3-star 6'4" · 204 lb · GA |
| — | WR-Z | #9George Dimopoulos JR · 3-star 6'2" · 200 lb · IL |
| — | WR-Z | #4Kenji Lewis RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'1" · 200 lb · TN |
| — | SLOT | #1DeAree Rogers RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 5'11" · 200 lb · SC |
| — | SLOT | #3Rickey Taylor Jr. RS SO · 3-star 6'1" · 180 lb · IL |
| — | TE | #83Jason Fowler RS SO · 3-star 6'5" · 255 lb · IL |
| — | TE | #87Liam Russo RS FR · 3-star 6'5" · 250 lb · MO |
| — | LT | #58Ross Liegel RS SO · 3-star 6'6" · 278 lb · WI |
| — | LT | #61Ben Gustafson RS SO · 3-star 6'8" · 305 lb · NE |
| — | LG | #76Tyler Chambers RS FR · 3-star 6'5" · 300 lb · IL |
| — | LG | #53Luke Skartvedt RS JR · 3-star 6'3" · 337 lb · IN |
| — | C | #63Landon Hron RS JR · 3-star 6'3" · 335 lb · WI |
| — | C | #55Ty Mead SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'2" · 296 lb · IN |
| — | RG | #78Jacob Welch RS JR · 3-star 6'6" · 316 lb · IL |
| — | RG | #68Samir Senenat RS SO · 3-star 6'4" · 285 lb · IL |
| — | RT | #66Lane Mahnesmith RS SO · 3-star 6'8" · 320 lb · IL |
| — | RT | #74Erik Murray RS FR · 2-star 6'5" · 275 lb · IL |
| — | OL | #70Chevy Trask RS SR · 3-star 6'5" · 290 lb · IL |
| — | DE | #93Fawzy Omotoso RS FR · 3-star 6'3" · 251 lb · IN |
| — | DE | #90Kole Sneed RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'2" · 255 lb · IL |
| — | LDT | Montrel Canion RS FR · 2-star 6'2" · 295 lb · FL |
| — | LDT | #50Matthew Scarlett RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 285 lb · MD |
| — | RDT | #11Amari Washington RS FR · 3-star 6'3" · 295 lb · IA |
| — | RDT | #55Jordan Bellamy RS FR · 3-star 6'2" · 314 lb · FL |
| — | MLB | #44Jack Murray FR · 3-star 6'2" · 236 lb · WI |
| — | MLB | #8Cooper Mau JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'1" · 225 lb · -- |
| — | WLB | #15Broderick Windham SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'2" · 220 lb · CA |
| — | WLB | #6Jashawn Nelson RS FR · 3-star 6'2" · 230 lb · IN |
| — | LCB | #9Dev'ion Reynolds RS SO · 3-star 6'1" · 190 lb · IL |
| — | LCB | #20Marshall Washington JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'2" · 180 lb · NJ |
| — | RCB | #3Liam Lindo RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 200 lb · NY |
| — | RCB | #5Yassine Falke JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 190 lb · IN |
| — | NB | #12Aaron Warren RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 208 lb · IL |
| — | NB | #2Avery Jones SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'0" · 195 lb · MD |
| — | FS | #14Malik Armstrong RS SR · 2-star 6'0" · 192 lb · IL |
| — | FS | #26Tyrese Stanley RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'2" · 200 lb · MD |
| — | SS | #7Justin Harris RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'4" · 202 lb · VA |
| — | SS | #16Kyon Conyers JR/TR · 3-star · TR 5'11" · 195 lb · NJ |