Predictive model
Head to head
Type a school or pick from the list. HX seeds an Elo rating (1500 + 55 × composite). Home-field is 60 Elo points unless Neutral site is on (Dublin, CFP, etc.). Win probability and spread come from that gap.
9:00 CT · ESPN+ · Hornet Stadium · Tape Ohio 48–7 Sacramento St
Home
Ohio −11.5 · O/U 55.7
Away
In-game restamp
Same HX prior. Type the score at the stamp. Not a live feed.
Unit vs unit
Each offense stat against the other side's matching defense stat, both as FBS percentiles (100 = best). A gap of 10+ points is an edge. 2026 stats through 2026-11-11; EPA, success rate, explosiveness, and line yards are opponent-adjusted (CFBD). Stats only: the HX line above is the prediction.
Sacramento St OvsOhio D- EPA per playEdge: Ohio D-0.147 · P10.141 · P40
- Success rateEdge: Ohio D34.5 · P543.2 · P37
- ExplosivenessEdge: Ohio D1.088 · P21.242 · P49
- Line yards (run blocking)Edge: Ohio D2.34 · P23.03 · P37
- Rushing (yards per carry)Edge: Ohio D3.28 · P64.13 · P45
- Yards per playEdge: Ohio D4.49 · P15.41 · P54
- 3rd downEdge: Ohio D31.8 · P837.0 · P60
- Havoc (offense allowed vs defense made)Edge: Ohio D18.2 · P1017.6 · P74
Ohio OvsSacramento St D- EPA per playEdge: Ohio O0.075 · P410.183 · P23
- Success rateEdge: Ohio O41.1 · P4943.5 · P32
- ExplosivenessEven1.172 · P201.354 · P13
- Line yards (run blocking)Edge: Ohio O3.12 · P773.32 · P5
- Rushing (yards per carry)Edge: Ohio O4.91 · P724.87 · P18
- Yards per playEdge: Ohio O5.90 · P615.77 · P32
- 3rd downEdge: Ohio O43.4 · P7341.6 · P25
- Havoc (offense allowed vs defense made)Edge: Ohio O13.6 · P6612.4 · P9
Definitions on /stats.
Roster talent
Two-deep composite, transfers included. Unit slices sit under that. OL mass is size, not the ranking.
-6.21-1.61No sourced talent, class, or size profile for Sacramento St yet (2026 FBS newcomer), so the roster comparison is off for this matchup.
Two-deep
Listed TWO·DEEP where available · CFBD projection otherwise| Sacramento St | Pos | Ohio |
|---|---|---|
| — | QB | #8Nick Poulos GR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'5" · 235 lb · CA |
| — | QB | #9Matt Vezza RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'0" · 200 lb · IL |
| — | RB | #6Duncan Brune JR · 3-star 5'11" · 210 lb · -- |
| — | RB | #4Victor Rosa GR/TR · 3-star · TR 5'11" · 205 lb · CT |
| — | WR-X | Delaney Crawford RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'2" · 200 lb · CA |
| — | WR-X | #14Marcus Hughbanks FR · 3-star 6'1" · 210 lb · -- |
| — | WR-Z | #3Dom Dorwart RS SO · 3-star 6'0" · 200 lb · MD |
| — | WR-Z | #12Eian Pugh RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 185 lb · IL |
| — | SLOT | #2Preston Bowman RS FR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'0" · 205 lb · OH |
| — | SLOT | #15Riley Neer RS SO · 3-star 6'0" · 185 lb · OH |
| — | TE | #33Jake Furtney RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR 6'4" · 250 lb · IL |
| — | TE | #85Riley Palmeter RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'4" · 240 lb · IN |
| — | LT | #75Jarian Shelby RS SR · 3-star 6'4" · 295 lb · LA |
| — | LT | #72Trumain Lawson SO/TR · 3-star · TR 6'5" · 295 lb · NJ |
| — | LG | #65Josh Waite GR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'2" · 295 lb · PA |
| — | LG | #71Cassius Hulbert GR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 316 lb · OH |
| — | C | #76Bryce Parson RS SO · 3-star 6'3" · 308 lb · MO |
| — | RG | #63Seth Anstead RS SO · 3-star 6'3" · 310 lb · MI |
| — | RG | #55CJ Dawson II RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'2" · 328 lb · OH |
| — | RT | #74Tigana Cisse GR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 314 lb · CA |
| — | RT | #77Sandro Malicevic SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'5" · 315 lb · CA |
| — | OL | #51Job Mavrick FR · 3-star 6'1" · 290 lb · IN |
| — | LDE | #11Evan Herrmann RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'5" · 245 lb · WI |
| — | LDE | #23Joseph Marsh RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 240 lb · CA |
| — | RDE | #9Tyler Gillison GR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 250 lb · OH |
| — | RDE | #51Isaiah Street RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'4" · 253 lb · IN |
| — | LDT | #97Austin Mitchell RS JR · 3-star 6'2" · 274 lb · OH |
| — | LDT | #98Derek Reagans SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'0" · 285 lb · CA |
| — | RDT | Nehemiah Dukes RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'1" · 285 lb · GA |
| — | RDT | #57Nathan Hale GR/TR · 2-star · TR 6'4" · 280 lb · KS |
| — | MLB | #30Charlie Christopher SO · 3-star 6'0" · 225 lb · OH |
| — | MLB | #25Michael Molnar RS SR · 3-star 6'3" · 227 lb · OH |
| — | WLB | #27Jack Fries RS SR · 3-star 6'2" · 225 lb · OH |
| — | WLB | #15William Marzolf SO/TR · 3-star · TR 6'0" · 213 lb · FL |
| — | LCB | #20Kendall Bannister RS JR · 3-star 6'0" · 190 lb · VA |
| — | LCB | #8Barry Dillon RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR 6'2" · 190 lb · MS |
| — | RCB | #5KJ Sejour SO/TR · 3-star · TR 5'11" · 175 lb · FL |
| — | RCB | #24Cam Cope RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 5'11" · 190 lb · OH |
| — | NB | #7Eli Thompson RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 5'11" · 185 lb · GA |
| — | NB | #6Tony Mathis RS SO · 3-star 5'11" · 180 lb · GA |
| — | SS | #2DJ Walker RS JR · 3-star 6'1" · 195 lb · PA |
| — | SS | #3JT Haskins RS SO · 3-star 6'0" · 185 lb · KY |
| — | SAF | #4Darren James RS SO · 3-star 5'11" · 185 lb · NC |