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HASHMARK

Predictive model

Head to head

Type a school or pick from the list. HX seeds an Elo rating (1500 + 55 × composite). Home-field is 60 Elo points unless Neutral site is on (Dublin, CFP, etc.). Win probability and spread come from that gap.

Home
Away
Final

2:30 CT · ESPN+ · Scheumann Stadium · Tape Sacramento St 17–34 Ball St

Home

Ball State
HX #129 · MAC
32–23

Ball St −8.7 · O/U 55.5

Away

Sacramento State
HX #138 · MAC
Ball St
70.5%
Sacramento St
29.5%

In-game restamp

Same HX prior. Type the score at the stamp. Not a live feed.

HX edge
+151.30
Includes home field
Pregame home win
70.5%
HX before any restamp
Projected wins
3.6 / 2.2
Season, pre-game

Unit vs unit

Each offense stat against the other side's matching defense stat, both as FBS percentiles (100 = best). A gap of 10+ points is an edge. 2026 stats through 2026-11-11; EPA, success rate, explosiveness, and line yards are opponent-adjusted (CFBD). Stats only: the HX line above is the prediction.

Ball St OvsSacramento St D
Edges: O 5 · D 2
Ball St offenseSacramento St defense
  • EPA per playEdge: Ball St O
    0.061 · P37
    0.183 · P23
  • Success rateEven
    39.3 · P34
    43.5 · P32
  • ExplosivenessEdge: Ball St O
    1.253 · P53
    1.354 · P13
  • Line yards (run blocking)Edge: Ball St O
    2.89 · P45
    3.32 · P5
  • Rushing (yards per carry)Edge: Ball St O
    4.45 · P56
    4.87 · P18
  • Yards per playEdge: Sacramento St D
    5.19 · P18
    5.77 · P32
  • 3rd downEdge: Sacramento St D
    34.1 · P15
    41.6 · P25
  • Havoc (offense allowed vs defense made)Edge: Ball St O
    16.3 · P31
    12.4 · P9
Sacramento St OvsBall St D
Edges: O 0 · D 3
Sacramento St offenseBall St defense
  • EPA per playEven
    -0.147 · P1
    0.276 · P2
  • Success rateEdge: Ball St D
    34.5 · P5
    44.6 · P23
  • ExplosivenessEven
    1.088 · P2
    1.392 · P6
  • Line yards (run blocking)Edge: Ball St D
    2.34 · P2
    3.06 · P34
  • Rushing (yards per carry)Even
    3.28 · P6
    5.04 · P13
  • Yards per playEven
    4.49 · P1
    6.38 · P9
  • 3rd downEven
    31.8 · P8
    42.5 · P18
  • Havoc (offense allowed vs defense made)Edge: Ball St D
    18.2 · P10
    14.5 · P31

Definitions on /stats.

Roster talent

Two-deep composite, transfers included. Unit slices sit under that. OL mass is size, not the ranking.

-4.55
HX rating
-6.21

No sourced talent, class, or size profile for Sacramento St yet (2026 FBS newcomer), so the roster comparison is off for this matchup.

Two-deep

Listed TWO·DEEP where available · CFBD projection otherwise
Ball StPosSacramento St
#6Keldric Luster RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR
5'10" · 250 lb · TX
QB—
#9Tyler Mizzell RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'1" · 170 lb · NC
QB—
#4TJ Horton RS JR · 3-star
5'10" · 200 lb · KY
RB—
#2Jalen Bonds RS FR · 2-star
6'0" · 215 lb · IN
RB—
#14Elisha Durham SO · 3-star
6'1" · 175 lb · MI
WR-X—
#3Corey Thompson Jr. RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR
5'10" · 168 lb · CA
WR-X—
#1Donovan Hamilton RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR
6'4" · 210 lb · IN
WR-Z—
#11Isaiah Thacker RS JR · 3-star
5'11" · 195 lb · IN
WR-Z—
#5Jabari Smith Jr. RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR
5'9" · 160 lb · FL
SLOT—
#7CJ Nelson RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR
5'11" · 184 lb · TX
SLOT—
#84Tate Hoover RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'2" · 252 lb · KS
TE—
#89Sean Ward RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'5" · 255 lb · OH
TE—
#66Chris Hood RS SR · 3-star
6'10" · 330 lb · IN
LT—
#71Brady Barrowman RS FR · 3-star
6'4" · 303 lb · IL
LT—
#75Zach Bandy RS SO · 3-star
6'5" · 297 lb · IN
LG—
#63Maxwell Wentz RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'3" · 301 lb · WV
C—
#67Jackson Ruess RS JR · 3-star
6'4" · 298 lb · IN
C—
#73Cole Mosier RS SR · 3-star
6'4" · 305 lb · IN
RG—
#68Grant Haworth RS SO · 3-star
6'2" · 303 lb · IN
RG—
#70Tristan Cook RS JR · 3-star
6'6" · 300 lb · KY
RT—
#61Luke Dalton RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'4" · 304 lb · IL
RT—
#56Jacob Jeudy GR · 3-star
6'3" · 290 lb · FL
OL—
#10Austin Stief SR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'4" · 215 lb · FL
DE—
#39Maverick Gracio RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'4" · 245 lb · FL
DE—
#31Jared Badie RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'3" · 236 lb · IL
RUSH—
#42Layton Starks RS SO · 2-star
6'4" · 235 lb · KY
RUSH—
#56Ameir Glenn RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR
6'1" · 304 lb · GA
DT—
#94Ka'Shawn Thomas RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'0" · 291 lb · GA
DT—
#99Kendrick Gilbert RS JR/TR · 4-star · TR
6'4" · 255 lb · IN
NT—
#74Khristian Zachary RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'3" · 278 lb · GA
NT—
#27Gavin Forsha RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'3" · 224 lb · TN
MLB—
#25Mikeah Webster RS FR · 3-star
6'1" · 238 lb · IN
MLB—
#6Cincear Lewis RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'2" · 222 lb · MI
WLB—
#16Kaleb Stewart RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR
6'0" · 246 lb · FL
WLB—
#4Willizhuan Yates JR · 2-star
6'0" · 177 lb · OH
LCB—
#23Jordan Suggs RS SO · 3-star
6'0" · 178 lb · IL
LCB—
#21Dianté Griffin RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR
5'9" · 192 lb · OH
RCB—
#18Cedric Franklin II RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR
6'1" · 187 lb · GA
RCB—
#5Chris Jackson RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR
5'11" · 172 lb · CA
NB—
#8Avery Stuart RS JR/TR · 4-star · TR
6'1" · 206 lb · AL
NB—
#1Sterling Smith RS JR/TR · 2-star · TR
5'11" · 198 lb · IN
FS—
#2Tobi Adewoyin SO · 3-star
5'11" · 185 lb · GA
FS—
Derek Fields RS JR · 3-star
6'1" · 192 lb · MO
SS—
#12Deondre Shepherd RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR
5'11" · 195 lb · TX
SS—