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HASHMARK

Predictive model

Head to head

Type a school or pick from the list. HX seeds an Elo rating (1500 + 55 × composite). Home-field is 60 Elo points unless Neutral site is on (Dublin, CFP, etc.). Win probability and spread come from that gap.

Home
Away
Final

11:00 CT · ESPN+ · Doyt L. Perry Stadium · Tape Sacramento St 10–38 Bowling Grn

Home

Bowling Green
HX #120 · MAC
34–21

Bowling Grn −13.3 · O/U 54.8

Away

Sacramento State
HX #138 · MAC
Bowling Grn
77.9%
Sacramento St
22.1%

In-game restamp

Same HX prior. Type the score at the stamp. Not a live feed.

HX edge
+218.50
Includes home field
Pregame home win
77.9%
HX before any restamp
Projected wins
3.9 / 2.2
Season, pre-game

Unit vs unit

Each offense stat against the other side's matching defense stat, both as FBS percentiles (100 = best). A gap of 10+ points is an edge. 2026 stats through 2026-11-11; EPA, success rate, explosiveness, and line yards are opponent-adjusted (CFBD). Stats only: the HX line above is the prediction.

Bowling Grn OvsSacramento St D
Edges: O 3 · D 3
Bowling Grn offenseSacramento St defense
  • EPA per playEven
    0.004 · P16
    0.183 · P23
  • Success rateEdge: Sacramento St D
    37.4 · P18
    43.5 · P32
  • ExplosivenessEdge: Bowling Grn O
    1.191 · P27
    1.354 · P13
  • Line yards (run blocking)Edge: Bowling Grn O
    2.66 · P15
    3.32 · P5
  • Rushing (yards per carry)Edge: Sacramento St D
    3.32 · P7
    4.87 · P18
  • Yards per playEdge: Sacramento St D
    4.95 · P9
    5.77 · P32
  • 3rd downEdge: Bowling Grn O
    40.0 · P45
    41.6 · P25
  • Havoc (offense allowed vs defense made)Even
    18.6 · P6
    12.4 · P9
Sacramento St OvsBowling Grn D
Edges: O 0 · D 6
Sacramento St offenseBowling Grn defense
  • EPA per playEdge: Bowling Grn D
    -0.147 · P1
    0.191 · P19
  • Success rateEven
    34.5 · P5
    46.0 · P13
  • ExplosivenessEdge: Bowling Grn D
    1.088 · P2
    1.334 · P18
  • Line yards (run blocking)Edge: Bowling Grn D
    2.34 · P2
    3.21 · P18
  • Rushing (yards per carry)Even
    3.28 · P6
    5.24 · P7
  • Yards per playEdge: Bowling Grn D
    4.49 · P1
    6.18 · P14
  • 3rd downEdge: Bowling Grn D
    31.8 · P8
    33.9 · P76
  • Havoc (offense allowed vs defense made)Edge: Bowling Grn D
    18.2 · P10
    15.1 · P41

Definitions on /stats.

Roster talent

Two-deep composite, transfers included. Unit slices sit under that. OL mass is size, not the ranking.

-3.33
HX rating
-6.21

No sourced talent, class, or size profile for Sacramento St yet (2026 FBS newcomer), so the roster comparison is off for this matchup.

Two-deep

Listed TWO·DEEP where available · CFBD projection otherwise
Bowling GrnPosSacramento St
#17Jay Kastantin RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'4" · 235 lb · MA
QB—
#16Austin Novosad RS JR/TR · 4-star · TR
6'3" · 203 lb · TX
QB—
#1Austyn Dendy RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR
6'1" · 230 lb · AR
RB—
#2Nakai Amachree RS SO · 3-star
5'10" · 195 lb · MI
RB—
#18Winn Sharp SO · 3-star
6'5" · 200 lb · OH
WR—
#9Nick Sowell SR · 3-star
6'5" · 205 lb · SC
WR—
#3Trey Johnson RS SR · 3-star
6'0" · 200 lb · IL
WR2—
#19Joseph Saffold FR · 3-star
6'1" · 185 lb · OH
WR2—
#5Brennan Ridley JR/TR · 3-star · TR
5'11" · 177 lb · VA
WR3—
#11Austin Clay RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR
6'0" · 175 lb · OH
WR3—
#89Blane Cleaver GR · 3-star
6'2" · 235 lb · PA
TE—
#8Eli Jacon-Duffy SO · 3-star
6'4" · 245 lb · OH
TE—
Jeremiah Scoby SO · 3-star
6'3" · 218 lb · TX
TE2—
#88Carsen Melvin RS FR · 3-star
6'3" · 225 lb · IN
TE2—
#65Gabe Funk RS SO/TR · 2-star · TR
6'6" · 320 lb · OH
LT—
#58Ethan Kraatz RS FR · 3-star
6'4" · 310 lb · MI
LT—
#54Brody Bolyn RS JR · 3-star
6'3" · 310 lb · IN
LG—
#53Masyn Zahursky RS FR · 3-star
6'4" · 305 lb · OH
LG—
#78Alexis Sanchez SR/TR · 2-star · TR
6'3" · 335 lb · AZ
C—
#73Caden Campbell RS SO · 2-star
6'4" · 295 lb · MI
C—
#70Alex Harris RS SO · 3-star
6'5" · 320 lb · OH
RG—
#76Theo Andall FR · 3-star
6'3" · 295 lb · --
RG—
#77James Thomas Jr. RS JR · 3-star
6'5" · 295 lb · OH
RT—
#50Vincent Giordano RS FR · 3-star
6'5" · 310 lb · OH
RT—
#4Kade Kostus RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'2" · 265 lb · MI
DE—
#52Elijah Durham-Smith FR · 3-star
6'2" · 250 lb · OH
DE—
#5Eriq George SR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'3" · 300 lb · TN
DT—
#55Timothy Taylor Jr. RS FR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'0" · 275 lb · FL
DT—
#88Selah Brown GR/TR · 4-star · TR
6'2" · 295 lb · KY
NT—
#95Jonathan Hendrix FR · 3-star
6'2" · 285 lb · OH
NT—
#3Dorian Pringle RS SO · 3-star
6'0" · 225 lb · OH
MLB—
#10Andrew Hines III RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR
6'1" · 230 lb · GA
MLB—
#6Sanders Ellis JR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'2" · 250 lb · TN
WLB—
#35Cashmire Lewis RS FR · 3-star
6'4" · 215 lb · CT
WLB—
#23Myles Bradley RS SR · 3-star
6'0" · 230 lb · OH
BUCK—
#48Quentin Lewis RS FR · 3-star
6'2" · 240 lb · GA
BUCK—
#26Josira Andrews RS SO · 3-star
5'10" · 180 lb · NY
NB—
#14JayT Jackson RS SR · 3-star
6'1" · 179 lb · GA
NB—
#2JoJo Johnson GR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'0" · 188 lb · IN
LC—
#18Nick Sawyer RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR
5'11" · 178 lb · AL
LC—
#41Drey Braxton JR/TR · 3-star · TR
5'10" · 175 lb · VA
RC—
#24DeVenchi Arnold II RS FR · 3-star
6'1" · 190 lb · MD
RC—
Kal-El Pascal JR · 3-star
6'0" · 190 lb · FL
FS—
#19Jahai Johnson RS FR · 3-star
6'1" · 200 lb · NJ
FS—
#9Preston EstoEsta SO · 3-star
6'1" · 190 lb · CA
SS—
#15D'kyah Banks SO · 3-star
6'5" · 185 lb · GA
SS—