Skip to board
HASHMARK

Predictive model

Head to head

Type a school or pick from the list. HX seeds an Elo rating (1500 + 55 × composite). Home-field is 60 Elo points unless Neutral site is on (Dublin, CFP, etc.). Win probability and spread come from that gap.

Home
Away
Final

6:30 CT · ESPNU · Kelly/Shorts Stadium · Tape Sacramento St 7–28 Central Mich

Home

Central Michigan
HX #99 · MAC
36–18

Central Mich −18.6 · O/U 54.3

Away

Sacramento State
HX #138 · MAC
Central Mich
84.2%
Sacramento St
15.8%

In-game restamp

Same HX prior. Type the score at the stamp. Not a live feed.

HX edge
+290.50
Includes home field
Pregame home win
84.2%
HX before any restamp
Projected wins
6.0 / 2.2
Season, pre-game

Unit vs unit

Each offense stat against the other side's matching defense stat, both as FBS percentiles (100 = best). A gap of 10+ points is an edge. 2026 stats through 2026-11-11; EPA, success rate, explosiveness, and line yards are opponent-adjusted (CFBD). Stats only: the HX line above is the prediction.

Central Mich OvsSacramento St D
Edges: O 6 · D 1
Central Mich offenseSacramento St defense
  • EPA per playEdge: Central Mich O
    0.049 · P34
    0.183 · P23
  • Success rateEven
    38.1 · P23
    43.5 · P32
  • ExplosivenessEdge: Central Mich O
    1.212 · P35
    1.354 · P13
  • Line yards (run blocking)Edge: Central Mich O
    3.09 · P74
    3.32 · P5
  • Rushing (yards per carry)Edge: Central Mich O
    4.62 · P64
    4.87 · P18
  • Yards per playEdge: Sacramento St D
    5.05 · P11
    5.77 · P32
  • 3rd downEdge: Central Mich O
    40.3 · P51
    41.6 · P25
  • Havoc (offense allowed vs defense made)Edge: Central Mich O
    12.6 · P84
    12.4 · P9
Sacramento St OvsCentral Mich D
Edges: O 0 · D 5
Sacramento St offenseCentral Mich defense
  • EPA per playEdge: Central Mich D
    -0.147 · P1
    0.163 · P28
  • Success rateEven
    34.5 · P5
    46.0 · P13
  • ExplosivenessEdge: Central Mich D
    1.088 · P2
    1.169 · P78
  • Line yards (run blocking)Even
    2.34 · P2
    3.52 · P1
  • Rushing (yards per carry)Edge: Central Mich D
    3.28 · P6
    4.71 · P23
  • Yards per playEdge: Central Mich D
    4.49 · P1
    5.39 · P57
  • 3rd downEven
    31.8 · P8
    45.9 · P9
  • Havoc (offense allowed vs defense made)Edge: Central Mich D
    18.2 · P10
    14.0 · P26

Definitions on /stats.

Roster talent

Two-deep composite, transfers included. Unit slices sit under that. OL mass is size, not the ranking.

-2.02
HX rating
-6.21

No sourced talent, class, or size profile for Sacramento St yet (2026 FBS newcomer), so the roster comparison is off for this matchup.

Two-deep

Listed TWO·DEEP where available · CFBD projection otherwise
Central MichPosSacramento St
#7Angel Flores RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'1" · 210 lb · AZ
QB—
#5Jadyn Glasser RS SO · 3-star
6'3" · 245 lb · FL
QB—
#24Vaughn Blue RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR
5'11" · 205 lb · SC
RB—
#2Brock Townsend RS SO · 3-star
6'0" · 215 lb · MI
RB—
#8Rusty VanWetzinga IV RS JR/TR · 2-star · TR
6'1" · 235 lb · IA
FB—
#42Landon Swanson RS SO · 3-star
6'3" · 240 lb · MI
FB—
#20Langston Lewis GR · 2-star
6'0" · 195 lb · GA
WR—
#9Justin Ruffin Jr. SO · 3-star
5'9" · 180 lb · KY
WR—
#17Braylen Naves SO · 3-star
6'1" · 200 lb · MI
WR2—
#3Nasir Williams RS SO · 3-star
6'1" · 205 lb · FL
WR2—
#85Myles Peters SO/TR · 3-star · TR
6'3" · 240 lb · UT
TE—
#87Gavin Spillers RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR
6'3" · 250 lb · GA
TE—
#69Jacob Booth RS SR · 3-star
6'5" · 295 lb · MI
LT—
#58John Williams RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'5" · 290 lb · CA
LT—
#70Jacob Russell RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'4" · 300 lb · NJ
LG—
#56Nic DiSanto SR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'5" · 320 lb · MI
LG—
#55Losini Maka RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'2" · 315 lb · HI
C—
#66Matthew Nehf RS JR · 3-star
6'3" · 300 lb · MI
C—
#60John Iannuzzi RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'4" · 320 lb · MA
RG—
#59Brady Ploucha RS SR · 3-star
6'6" · 315 lb · MI
RG—
#76Martin Koivisto RS SR · 3-star
6'7" · 295 lb · MN
RT—
#54Triston Pierre RS FR · 3-star
6'4" · 270 lb · MD
RT—
#1JJ Douglas SO · 3-star
6'5" · 250 lb · WI
DE—
#32James Reinbold GR · 3-star
6'4" · 260 lb · AK
DE—
#5Korver Demma RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'3" · 235 lb · NE
DE2—
#6Hunter Zirkle JR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'3" · 245 lb · FL
DE2—
#92Jaxon Cherry JR · 2-star
6'1" · 265 lb · IA
NT—
#97Max Van Fleet RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'4" · 275 lb · --
NT—
#35Mayson Hitchens SR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'1" · 225 lb · CA
MLB—
#40Brett McCalla RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'4" · 225 lb · CA
MLB—
#11Xavier White JR · 3-star
6'0" · 235 lb · CA
WLB—
#10Jeremiah Alston SR · 3-star
6'0" · 230 lb · MI
WLB—
#8Victor Earl RS SO · 3-star
6'2" · 225 lb · MI
SLB—
#4Jaion Jackson JR · 3-star
5'10" · 170 lb · IL
CB—
#43Kameran Hayward FR · 3-star
6'1" · 180 lb · MI
CB—
#26Matthew McKenzie JR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'3" · 200 lb · FL
CB2—
#12Donavan Philord RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR
5'11" · 190 lb · FL
CB2—
#14Justin Taylor RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'0" · 195 lb · IL
FS—
#27Tysen Campbell JR · 3-star
5'11" · 175 lb · OH
FS—
#19Darrell Bryant Jr. RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR
5'11" · 215 lb · VA
SS—
#17Coen Ali SO/TR · 3-star · TR
6'2" · 200 lb · CA
SS—
#57Connor Ridderhoff RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'3" · 250 lb · AL
LS2—
#51Zach Curtis FR · 3-star
6'3" · 220 lb · MI
LS2—