Predictive model
Head to head
Type a school or pick from the list. HX seeds an Elo rating (1500 + 55 × composite). Home-field is 60 Elo points unless Neutral site is on (Dublin, CFP, etc.). Win probability and spread come from that gap.
9:30 CT · CBSSN · Valley Children's Stadium · Tape Sacramento St 3–49 Fresno St
HASHMARK Fresno St −30.2 vs Vegas Fresno St −18.5 · same favorite
Home
Fresno St −30.2 · O/U 54.8
Away
In-game restamp
Same HX prior. Type the score at the stamp. Not a live feed.
Unit vs unit
Each offense stat against the other side's matching defense stat, both as FBS percentiles (100 = best). A gap of 10+ points is an edge. 2026 stats through 2026-11-11; EPA, success rate, explosiveness, and line yards are opponent-adjusted (CFBD). Stats only: the HX line above is the prediction.
Fresno St OvsSacramento St D- EPA per playEdge: Fresno St O0.083 · P450.183 · P23
- Success rateEdge: Sacramento St D37.2 · P1643.5 · P32
- ExplosivenessEdge: Fresno St O1.352 · P891.354 · P13
- Line yards (run blocking)Even2.41 · P43.32 · P5
- Rushing (yards per carry)Edge: Fresno St O4.04 · P344.87 · P18
- Yards per playEdge: Fresno St O5.70 · P435.77 · P32
- 3rd downEven36.7 · P2941.6 · P25
- Havoc (offense allowed vs defense made)Edge: Fresno St O13.8 · P6412.4 · P9
Sacramento St OvsFresno St D- EPA per playEdge: Fresno St D-0.147 · P10.047 · P67
- Success rateEdge: Fresno St D34.5 · P543.8 · P30
- ExplosivenessEdge: Fresno St D1.088 · P21.138 · P88
- Line yards (run blocking)Edge: Fresno St D2.34 · P22.95 · P46
- Rushing (yards per carry)Edge: Fresno St D3.28 · P64.35 · P35
- Yards per playEdge: Fresno St D4.49 · P15.62 · P40
- 3rd downEdge: Fresno St D31.8 · P835.8 · P65
- Havoc (offense allowed vs defense made)Edge: Fresno St D18.2 · P1015.5 · P49
Definitions on /stats.
Roster talent
Two-deep composite, transfers included. Unit slices sit under that. OL mass is size, not the ranking.
0.49-6.21No sourced talent, class, or size profile for Sacramento St yet (2026 FBS newcomer), so the roster comparison is off for this matchup.
Two-deep
Listed TWO·DEEP where available · CFBD projection otherwise| Fresno St | Pos | Sacramento St |
|---|---|---|
#3Khristian Martin RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR 6'4" · 230 lb · VA | QB | — |
#7Jayden Mandal RS JR · 3-star 6'0" · 205 lb · CA | QB | — |
#6Bryson Donelson JR · 3-star 5'11" · 205 lb · CA | RB | — |
#31Brandon Ramirez RS JR · 3-star 6'0" · 235 lb · CA | RB | — |
#5Josiah Freeman RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'4" · 200 lb · CA | WR-X | — |
#19Harold Duvall SO · 3-star 6'1" · 195 lb · CA | WR-X | — |
Ezekiel Avit RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'2" · 200 lb · MD | WR-Z | — |
#11Jayon Farrar SR/TR · 3-star · TR 5'11" · 185 lb · NJ | WR-Z | — |
#1Jahlil McClain RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 5'11" · 185 lb · CA | SLOT | — |
#25Keynan Cotton RS FR · 3-star 5'9" · 195 lb · NE | SLOT | — |
#89Brock Lium RS JR · 3-star 6'5" · 245 lb · CA | TE | — |
#87Jake Appleget RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'4" · 245 lb · NE | TE | — |
#76Brayden Walton SO · 3-star 6'8" · 325 lb · CA | LT | — |
#73Marsel Akins RS SO · 3-star 6'3" · 285 lb · CA | LT | — |
#72Edward Fonua RS SR/TR · 2-star · TR 6'3" · 315 lb · CA | LG | — |
#66Gino Quinones RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 295 lb · HI | LG | — |
#51Braylan Henderson SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 290 lb · CA | C | — |
#56Ben Baker RS SO · 3-star 6'1" · 280 lb · CA | C | — |
#55Marquise Thorpe-Taylor RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR 6'5" · 330 lb · WA | RG | — |
#65Jonah Leaupepetele RS FR · 3-star 6'3" · 325 lb · CA | RG | — |
#71Rolan Fullwood RS SR · 3-star 6'6" · 320 lb · CA | RT | — |
#75Kyson Van Vugt RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'7" · 290 lb · IA | RT | — |
#6Jahzon Jacks RS SR · 3-star 6'4" · 260 lb · CA | LDE | — |
#9Merhauti Xepera RS SR · 3-star 6'3" · 278 lb · AZ | LDE | — |
#54Sione Noa RS SR · 2-star 6'3" · 241 lb · CA | RDE | — |
#11Dylan Hampsten RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'4" · 250 lb · CA | RDE | — |
Deijon Laffitte RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 305 lb · CA | LDT | — |
#91Auckland Asiata RS JR · 3-star 6'3" · 285 lb · CA | LDT | — |
#8Martin Owusu RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 310 lb · MN | RDT | — |
#89Mordecai Hines RS JR · 3-star 6'4" · 290 lb · CA | RDT | — |
#35Tytus Khajavi RS SO · 3-star 6'1" · 240 lb · CA | MLB | — |
#25Justin Johnson RS JR · 3-star 6'1" · 225 lb · CA | MLB | — |
#1K'vion Thunderbird RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'0" · 235 lb · IL | WLB | — |
#18Logan Studt RS SO · 3-star 6'1" · 220 lb · CA | WLB | — |
#28Jomarion Briggs RS SR · 3-star 6'1" · 175 lb · CA | LCB | — |
#2Andre Cobb RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'1" · 185 lb · IL | LCB | — |
#31Kiontre Harris RS SO · 3-star 5'11" · 165 lb · CA | RCB | — |
#7Loyall Mouzon RS SO · 3-star 5'11" · 182 lb · NY | RCB | — |
#5Simeon Harris RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'0" · 190 lb · CA | NB | — |
#32Tyger Canales RS FR · 3-star 6'0" · 190 lb · CA | NB | — |
#4Ethan Tierney RS JR/TR · 2-star · TR 6'0" · 187 lb · IL | FS | — |
#24Croix Stewart RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 208 lb · CA | FS | — |
#37Ryan Wilson RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'0" · 195 lb · CA | SS | — |
#20RJ Regan RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'0" · 195 lb · CA | SS | — |