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HASHMARK

Predictive model

Head to head

Type a school or pick from the list. HX seeds an Elo rating (1500 + 55 × composite). Home-field is 60 Elo points unless Neutral site is on (Dublin, CFP, etc.). Win probability and spread come from that gap.

Home
Away

10:00 CT · MW+ · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex

Home

Hawaiʻi
HX #118 · Mountain West
35–21

Hawaiʻi −14.0 · O/U 56.0

Away

Sacramento State
HX #138 · MAC
Hawaiʻi
78.9%
Sacramento St
21.1%

In-game restamp

Same HX prior. Type the score at the stamp. Not a live feed.

HX edge
+229.00
Includes home field
Pregame home win
78.9%
HX before any restamp
Projected wins
4.5 / 2.2
Season, pre-game

Unit vs unit

Each offense stat against the other side's matching defense stat, both as FBS percentiles (100 = best). A gap of 10+ points is an edge. 2026 stats through 2026-11-11; EPA, success rate, explosiveness, and line yards are opponent-adjusted (CFBD). Stats only: the HX line above is the prediction.

Hawaiʻi OvsSacramento St D
Edges: O 3 · D 2
Hawaiʻi offenseSacramento St defense
  • EPA per playEven
    0.031 · P28
    0.183 · P23
  • Success rateEven
    39.4 · P35
    43.5 · P32
  • ExplosivenessEven
    1.140 · P12
    1.354 · P13
  • Line yards (run blocking)Edge: Hawaiʻi O
    2.83 · P38
    3.32 · P5
  • Rushing (yards per carry)Edge: Sacramento St D
    3.25 · P5
    4.87 · P18
  • Yards per playEdge: Sacramento St D
    5.17 · P18
    5.77 · P32
  • 3rd downEdge: Hawaiʻi O
    40.6 · P55
    41.6 · P25
  • Havoc (offense allowed vs defense made)Edge: Hawaiʻi O
    16.8 · P23
    12.4 · P9
Sacramento St OvsHawaiʻi D
Edges: O 0 · D 7
Sacramento St offenseHawaiʻi defense
  • EPA per playEdge: Hawaiʻi D
    -0.147 · P1
    0.226 · P12
  • Success rateEven
    34.5 · P5
    46.7 · P11
  • ExplosivenessEdge: Hawaiʻi D
    1.088 · P2
    1.198 · P68
  • Line yards (run blocking)Edge: Hawaiʻi D
    2.34 · P2
    3.08 · P28
  • Rushing (yards per carry)Edge: Hawaiʻi D
    3.28 · P6
    4.85 · P18
  • Yards per playEdge: Hawaiʻi D
    4.49 · P1
    5.98 · P21
  • 3rd downEdge: Hawaiʻi D
    31.8 · P8
    36.1 · P62
  • Havoc (offense allowed vs defense made)Edge: Hawaiʻi D
    18.2 · P10
    13.9 · P23

Definitions on /stats.

Roster talent

Two-deep composite, transfers included. Unit slices sit under that. OL mass is size, not the ranking.

-3.14
HX rating
-6.21

No sourced talent, class, or size profile for Sacramento St yet (2026 FBS newcomer), so the roster comparison is off for this matchup.

Two-deep

Listed TWO·DEEP where available · CFBD projection otherwise
HawaiʻiPosSacramento St
#12Micah Alejado RS SO · 3-star
5'10" · 180 lb · NV
QB—
#10Bjorn Jurgensen RS FR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'3" · 200 lb · FL
QB—
Cam Barfield RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR
5'7" · 190 lb · NV
RB—
#1DeVon Rice RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR
5'9" · 180 lb · NV
RB—
#7Tre' Griffiths RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR
6'3" · 205 lb · TX
WR-Z—
#11Devin Alves RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'3" · 195 lb · FL
WR-Z—
#2Audric Harris JR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'1" · 190 lb · CA
SLOT—
#13Koa Eldredge RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'0" · 190 lb · --
SLOT—
#83Josiah Fetui SO · 3-star
6'3" · 185 lb · --
WR—
#17Nick Delgadillo RS JR · 3-star
6'0" · 190 lb · CA
WR—
#18Blaze Kamoku SR/TR · 3-star · TR
5'6" · 185 lb · --
WR-Y—
#6Kainoa Carvalho RS FR · 3-star
5'6" · 165 lb · --
WR-Y—
#9Devon Tauaefa RS SR · 3-star
6'5" · 230 lb · --
TE—
#85Oakie Salave'a RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'2" · 240 lb · --
TE—
#56Boogie Henderson RS SO · 3-star
6'4" · 310 lb · CA
LT—
#75Khalil Walker RS SR/TR · 2-star · TR
6'5" · 300 lb · OH
LT—
#58Denaris DeRosa Jr. RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'3" · 285 lb · CA
LG—
#62Lautaimi Manuma RS SO · 3-star
6'3" · 300 lb · --
LG—
#57Ethan Spencer RS SR · 2-star
6'2" · 300 lb · --
C—
#50Tu'i Muti RS SO · 3-star
6'1" · 300 lb · --
C—
#73Lipe Moala RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'6" · 345 lb · CA
RG—
#79Judah Kaio RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'3" · 305 lb · --
RG—
#52Dean Briski RS SR · 3-star
6'5" · 305 lb · --
RT—
#55Jay Tauala-Harris RS SO · 3-star
6'3" · 290 lb · CA
RT—
#51Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina RS JR · 3-star
6'4" · 245 lb · --
LDE—
#91Josh Sagapolutele RS JR · 3-star
6'0" · 255 lb · --
LDE—
#10Ka'eo Akana RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'3" · 245 lb · --
RDE—
#56Spencer Elliott SR/TR · 2-star · TR
6'3" · 255 lb · OR
RDE—
#52Luther McCoy GR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'5" · 270 lb · FL
DT—
#97Jordan Lynch RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR
6'3" · 290 lb · TX
DT—
#95Geoffrey Speight Jr. SR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'1" · 280 lb · GA
NT—
#88Elijah Williams RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'3" · 300 lb · AL
NT—
#12Wynden Ho'ohuli RS SR/TR · 4-star · TR
6'3" · 240 lb · --
MLB—
#11Jamih Otis SR · 3-star
5'11" · 220 lb · NV
WLB—
#8Matteus Ioane SO · 3-star
6'2" · 225 lb · --
WLB—
#13Elijah Gipson SR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'0" · 170 lb · CA
LCB—
Jeremiah Hughes JR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'0" · 180 lb · NV
LCB—
#1Caleb Brown RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'2" · 200 lb · IA
RCB—
#6Zion Allen RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'1" · 175 lb · CA
RCB—
#4Elijah Palmer SR · 3-star
5'8" · 185 lb · NV
NB—
#25Matagi Thompson RS SR · 2-star
6'2" · 190 lb · --
FS—
#24Kodi DeCambra RS JR/TR · 4-star · TR
5'11" · 190 lb · --
FS—
#2Kona Moore RS SR · 3-star
6'0" · 190 lb · --
SS—
#3Joenel Figueroa SR/TR · 3-star · TR
6'0" · 190 lb · MA
SS—