Predictive model
Head to head
Type a school or pick from the list. HX seeds an Elo rating (1500 + 55 × composite). Home-field is 60 Elo points unless Neutral site is on (Dublin, CFP, etc.). Win probability and spread come from that gap.
Home
Away
Final
6:00 CT · CBSSN · Hornet Stadium · Tape Toledo 20–17 Sacramento St
Home
Sacramento State
HX #138 · MAC
20–36
Toledo −16.1 · O/U 55.3
Away
Toledo
HX #77 · MAC
Sacramento St
18.5%
Toledo
81.5%
In-game restamp
Same HX prior. Type the score at the stamp. Not a live feed.
HX edge
-257.20
Includes home field
Pregame home win
18.5%
HX before any restamp
Projected wins
2.2 / 9.5
Season, pre-game
Unit vs unit
Each offense stat against the other side's matching defense stat, both as FBS percentiles (100 = best). A gap of 10+ points is an edge. 2026 stats through 2026-11-11; EPA, success rate, explosiveness, and line yards are opponent-adjusted (CFBD). Stats only: the HX line above is the prediction.
Sacramento St OvsToledo DSacramento St offenseToledo defense
- EPA per playEdge: Toledo D-0.147 · P10.036 · P72
- Success rateEdge: Toledo D34.5 · P537.2 · P85
- ExplosivenessEven1.088 · P21.447 · P3
- Line yards (run blocking)Edge: Toledo D2.34 · P22.53 · P91
- Rushing (yards per carry)Edge: Toledo D3.28 · P63.15 · P87
- Yards per playEdge: Toledo D4.49 · P14.46 · P91
- 3rd downEdge: Toledo D31.8 · P832.7 · P81
- Havoc (offense allowed vs defense made)Edge: Toledo D18.2 · P1018.1 · P80
Toledo OvsSacramento St DToledo offenseSacramento St defense
- EPA per playEdge: Toledo O0.100 · P520.183 · P23
- Success rateEven38.2 · P2443.5 · P32
- ExplosivenessEdge: Toledo O1.355 · P901.354 · P13
- Line yards (run blocking)Edge: Toledo O2.92 · P503.32 · P5
- Rushing (yards per carry)Edge: Toledo O4.97 · P774.87 · P18
- Yards per playEdge: Toledo O6.46 · P825.77 · P32
- 3rd downEdge: Toledo O43.0 · P7041.6 · P25
- Havoc (offense allowed vs defense made)Edge: Toledo O13.1 · P7412.4 · P9
Definitions on /stats.
Roster talent
Two-deep composite, transfers included. Unit slices sit under that. OL mass is size, not the ranking.
-6.21HX rating
-0.45No sourced talent, class, or size profile for Sacramento St yet (2026 FBS newcomer), so the roster comparison is off for this matchup.
Two-deep
Listed TWO·DEEP where available · CFBD projection otherwise| Sacramento St | Pos | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| — | QB | #6John Alan Richter RS SR · 3-star 6'3" · 225 lb · GA |
| — | QB | #7Khamoni Robinson RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'1" · 195 lb · NC |
| — | RB | #22CJ Miller RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 5'11" · 230 lb · AL |
| — | RB | #20Corey Smith RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR 5'10" · 175 lb · WI |
| — | WR-X | #3Adjatay Dabbs RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'0" · 170 lb · TN |
| — | WR-X | #5Terrell Crosby Jr. RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 5'10" · 182 lb · FL |
| — | WR-Z | #85Anthony Simpson RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 5'11" · 186 lb · CT |
| — | WR-Z | #9Kalvin Gilbert Jr. JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'4" · 181 lb · FL |
| — | SLOT | #1Rico Bond RS SO/TR · 2-star · TR 6'1" · 177 lb · MO |
| — | SLOT | #2Trenton Jones RS FR/TR · 3-star · TR 5'10" · 185 lb · FL |
| — | TE | #88Jacob Newell RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'4" · 245 lb · OR |
| — | TE | #80Peyton Strickland SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 235 lb · NH |
| — | LT | #65Stephen Gales RS SR · 3-star 6'6" · 290 lb · OH |
| — | LT | #78Dylan Senda RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'5" · 303 lb · MI |
| — | LG | #70Nick Thomas RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'4" · 311 lb · NJ |
| — | LG | #73Jonathan Harder RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'4" · 330 lb · OH |
| — | C | #50Luke Rector RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 300 lb · NC |
| — | C | #69Dominic Johnson RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 290 lb · FL |
| — | RG | #74Ahmad Carwise RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR 6'5" · 300 lb · SC |
| — | RG | #63Grant Zimmerly RS JR · 3-star 6'4" · 292 lb · OH |
| — | RT | #55Ibrahim Traore RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'5" · 297 lb · NY |
| — | RT | #71Matt Hofer RS SO · 3-star 6'5" · 288 lb · IN |
| — | LDE | Andrew Zock JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'2" · 250 lb · FL |
| — | LDE | #90Zach Johnson SO/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 240 lb · FL |
| — | RDE | #2Ezra Odinjor RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 240 lb · GA |
| — | RDE | #21Ben Sahakian RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 245 lb · IL |
| — | LDT | #99Caden Camese RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'1" · 285 lb · NE |
| — | LDT | #52Lucas Lambert-Pipkin JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'2" · 285 lb · PA |
| — | RDT | #96Nathaniel Chandler RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'4" · 269 lb · DE |
| — | RDT | #93Leonard Sharp RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'4" · 283 lb · OH |
| — | MLB | #6Langston Long RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 225 lb · VA |
| — | MLB | #10Julian Fox RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'1" · 220 lb · GA |
| — | WLB | #19Isaac Prince RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'0" · 215 lb · GA |
| — | WLB | #13Kari Jackson RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR 6'1" · 238 lb · MI |
| — | LCB | #1Cam Jones JR/TR · 3-star · TR 5'11" · 190 lb · PA |
| — | LCB | #21LaDavion Osborn SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'1" · 183 lb · TX |
| — | RCB | #8KJ Thomas SO/TR · 3-star · TR 5'11" · 180 lb · GA |
| — | RCB | #23Israel Petite RS SO/TR · 2-star · TR 5'11" · 170 lb · OH |
| — | NB | #4Donovan Watkins JR/TR · 3-star · TR 5'11" · 180 lb · SC |
| — | NB | #12Mo Conteh RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'0" · 190 lb · OH |
| — | FS | #22Nicholas Thompson RS JR · 3-star 6'2" · 206 lb · IN |
| — | FS | #39Dylan Hohler RS JR · 3-star 6'4" · 196 lb · OH |
| — | SS | #17Kaleb Hutchinson RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'0" · 185 lb · GA |
| — | SS | #7Armorion Smith RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'1" · 212 lb · MI |