Predictive model
Head to head
Type a school or pick from the list. HX seeds an Elo rating (1500 + 55 × composite). Home-field is 60 Elo points unless Neutral site is on (Dublin, CFP, etc.). Win probability and spread come from that gap.
Home
Away
Final
2:30 CT · MW+ · Fargodome · Tape UTEP 7–31 N Dakota St
Home
North Dakota State
HX #59 · Mountain West
42–14
N Dakota St −27.9 · O/U 55.9
Away
UTEP
HX #136 · CUSA
N Dakota St
91.1%
UTEP
8.9%
In-game restamp
Same HX prior. Type the score at the stamp. Not a live feed.
HX edge
+403.20
Includes home field
Pregame home win
91.1%
HX before any restamp
Projected wins
9.2 / 1.9
Season, pre-game
Unit vs unit
Each offense stat against the other side's matching defense stat, both as FBS percentiles (100 = best). A gap of 10+ points is an edge. 2026 stats through 2026-11-11; EPA, success rate, explosiveness, and line yards are opponent-adjusted (CFBD). Stats only: the HX line above is the prediction.
N Dakota St OvsUTEP DN Dakota St offenseUTEP defense
- EPA per playEdge: N Dakota St O0.035 · P290.276 · P4
- Success rateEdge: N Dakota St O37.7 · P2150.0 · P1
- ExplosivenessEdge: N Dakota St O1.336 · P821.221 · P58
- Line yards (run blocking)Even2.71 · P223.16 · P21
- Rushing (yards per carry)Even4.03 · P324.66 · P26
- Yards per playEdge: N Dakota St O5.38 · P266.09 · P15
- 3rd downEdge: N Dakota St O39.7 · P4447.4 · P6
- Havoc (offense allowed vs defense made)Edge: N Dakota St O14.5 · P5312.4 · P9
UTEP OvsN Dakota St DUTEP offenseN Dakota St defense
- EPA per playEdge: N Dakota St D-0.078 · P4-0.016 · P85
- Success rateEdge: N Dakota St D35.3 · P737.9 · P82
- ExplosivenessEdge: UTEP O1.356 · P911.193 · P71
- Line yards (run blocking)Edge: N Dakota St D2.75 · P292.95 · P46
- Rushing (yards per carry)Edge: N Dakota St D4.04 · P343.60 · P72
- Yards per playEdge: N Dakota St D4.95 · P94.36 · P95
- 3rd downEdge: N Dakota St D25.9 · P034.2 · P74
- Havoc (offense allowed vs defense made)Edge: N Dakota St D22.1 · P118.5 · P84
Definitions on /stats.
Roster talent
Two-deep composite, transfers included. Unit slices sit under that. OL mass is size, not the ranking.
0.31HX rating
-5.93No sourced talent, class, or size profile for N Dakota St yet (2026 FBS newcomer), so the roster comparison is off for this matchup.
Two-deep
Listed TWO·DEEP where available · CFBD projection otherwise| N Dakota St | Pos | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| — | QB | #1EJ Colson RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR 6'1" · 219 lb · GA |
| — | QB | #12Raymond Moore III RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR 6'4" · 182 lb · MD |
| — | RB | Tavorus Jones RS SR/TR · 4-star · TR 5'9" · 205 lb · TX |
| — | RB | #8Kam Thomas RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 5'9" · 177 lb · AL |
| — | WR-X | #5Carver Cheeks SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'2" · 192 lb · CO |
| — | WR-X | #81Jeremiah Nash JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'1" · 168 lb · CA |
| — | WR-Z | #7Jaylan Brown RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR 6'1" · 200 lb · TX |
| — | WR-Z | #18Rafeald Campbell RS SO · 3-star 5'11" · 171 lb · TX |
| — | SLOT | #3Jaden Smith RS SR/TR · 4-star · TR 5'10" · 186 lb · GA |
| — | SLOT | #11Royal Capell SO/TR · 3-star · TR 5'10" · 191 lb · TX |
| — | TE | #82Judah Ezinwa RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 235 lb · CA |
| — | TE | #4Cash Cheeks RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'7" · 235 lb · CO |
| — | LT | #54Jaymon Lamb RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 282 lb · TX |
| — | LT | #50Isaiah Maumalanga RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'5" · 282 lb · TX |
| — | LG | #52Jackson Bradley RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'5" · 271 lb · TN |
| — | LG | #58Rashad Smith JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'2" · 310 lb · AL |
| — | C | #56Brian Williams Jr. RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR 6'2" · 341 lb · GA |
| — | C | #67Jayden Trapp RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 294 lb · TX |
| — | RG | #55Omoruyi Aliu-Otokiti JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'4" · 320 lb · FL |
| — | RG | #76Diego De La Cruz RS FR · 3-star 6'4" · 343 lb · -- |
| — | RT | #73Tyler Roberts RS FR · 3-star 6'8" · 307 lb · TX |
| — | RT | #75Juan Camacho Jr. RS SR · 3-star 6'6" · 291 lb · TX |
| — | OL | #74Grayson Johnson JR · 3-star 6'9" · 324 lb · NC |
| — | DE | #3Shakaun Bowser RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'5" · 255 lb · AZ |
| — | DE | #55Leander Parrish RS FR · 3-star 6'3" · 262 lb · TX |
| — | DT | #98Preston Hickey RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'1" · 294 lb · LA |
| — | DT | #99Elijah Fields SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'1" · 262 lb · TX |
| — | NT | #90Ashton Coker JR · 3-star 6'2" · 277 lb · TX |
| — | NT | #93Jerrell Brasher JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'1" · 272 lb · AL |
| — | MLB | #13Isaiah Bogerty RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 236 lb · TX |
| — | MLB | #8Shay Smith RS SO · 3-star 6'2" · 224 lb · TX |
| — | WLB | #10Jayden Wilson SR/TR · 2-star · TR 6'1" · 223 lb · TX |
| — | WLB | #41Vashon Brunswick II SO · 3-star 6'1" · 227 lb · TX |
| — | LB | #4Garrett Hawkins RS JR · 3-star 6'3" · 227 lb · TN |
| — | LCB | Justin Content JR · 3-star 6'1" · 185 lb · GA |
| — | LCB | #23Kaleb Miles JR/TR · 3-star · TR 5'10" · 190 lb · TX |
| — | RCB | #5TJ Tillman SO · 3-star 6'0" · 172 lb · TX |
| — | RCB | #26Darien Fantroy RS FR · 3-star 6'2" · 175 lb · TX |
| — | FS | #2Xavier Smith RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'0" · 195 lb · GA |
| — | FS | #12Donavan Howard RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'1" · 200 lb · VA |
| — | SS | #7Kode Lowe RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'1" · 205 lb · FL |
| — | SS | #16Esteban Guillory SR/TR · 2-star · TR 6'1" · 196 lb · TX |
| — | SPUR | #27LaTristan Thompson RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR 5'10" · 175 lb · TX |
| — | SPUR | #29Dylan Brown-Turner RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'1" · 202 lb · TX |
| — | BANDIT | #19Sterling Miles RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'4" · 238 lb · MI |
| — | BANDIT | #6Ekow Taylor JR · 3-star 6'5" · 231 lb · NY |