Predictive model
Head to head
Type a school or pick from the list. HX seeds an Elo rating (1500 + 55 × composite). Home-field is 60 Elo points unless Neutral site is on (Dublin, CFP, etc.). Win probability and spread come from that gap.
Home
Away
Final
2:30 CT · CW · Fargodome · Tape Wyoming 0–28 N Dakota St
Home
North Dakota State
HX #59 · Mountain West
34–21
N Dakota St −13.3 · O/U 54.6
Away
Wyoming
HX #109 · Mountain West
N Dakota St
77.9%
Wyoming
22.1%
In-game restamp
Same HX prior. Type the score at the stamp. Not a live feed.
HX edge
+218.60
Includes home field
Pregame home win
77.9%
HX before any restamp
Projected wins
9.2 / 7.5
Season, pre-game
Unit vs unit
Each offense stat against the other side's matching defense stat, both as FBS percentiles (100 = best). A gap of 10+ points is an edge. 2026 stats through 2026-11-11; EPA, success rate, explosiveness, and line yards are opponent-adjusted (CFBD). Stats only: the HX line above is the prediction.
N Dakota St OvsWyoming DN Dakota St offenseWyoming defense
- EPA per playEven0.035 · P290.181 · P24
- Success rateEven37.7 · P2146.0 · P13
- ExplosivenessEven1.336 · P821.168 · P79
- Line yards (run blocking)Edge: N Dakota St O2.71 · P223.41 · P4
- Rushing (yards per carry)Even4.03 · P324.71 · P23
- Yards per playEdge: Wyoming D5.38 · P265.33 · P61
- 3rd downEdge: N Dakota St O39.7 · P4441.0 · P30
- Havoc (offense allowed vs defense made)Even14.5 · P5315.3 · P44
Wyoming OvsN Dakota St DWyoming offenseN Dakota St defense
- EPA per playEdge: N Dakota St D0.079 · P43-0.016 · P85
- Success rateEdge: N Dakota St D43.1 · P6437.9 · P82
- ExplosivenessEdge: N Dakota St D1.128 · P81.193 · P71
- Line yards (run blocking)Edge: Wyoming O3.28 · P912.95 · P46
- Rushing (yards per carry)Edge: Wyoming O5.35 · P903.60 · P72
- Yards per playEdge: N Dakota St D5.85 · P544.36 · P95
- 3rd downEdge: N Dakota St D34.0 · P1434.2 · P74
- Havoc (offense allowed vs defense made)Even12.8 · P8018.5 · P84
Definitions on /stats.
Roster talent
Two-deep composite, transfers included. Unit slices sit under that. OL mass is size, not the ranking.
0.31HX rating
-2.57No sourced talent, class, or size profile for N Dakota St yet (2026 FBS newcomer), so the roster comparison is off for this matchup.
Two-deep
Listed TWO·DEEP where available · CFBD projection otherwise| N Dakota St | Pos | Wyoming |
|---|---|---|
| — | QB | #6Tyler Hughes RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'0" · 214 lb · GA |
| — | QB | #7Mason Drube RS FR · 3-star 6'3" · 220 lb · WY |
| — | RB | #1Samuel Harris SO · 3-star 5'11" · 202 lb · TX |
| — | RB | #8Markell Holman SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'0" · 214 lb · PA |
| — | WR-X | #12Bricen Brantley RS JR · 3-star 6'3" · 190 lb · TX |
| — | WR-X | #5Justin Popovich RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 203 lb · KY |
| — | WR-Z | #19Charlie Coenen RS SR · 3-star 6'0" · 195 lb · MN |
| — | WR-Z | #9Jackson Holman RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 205 lb · CA |
| — | SLOT | #2Eric Richardson RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 5'11" · 181 lb · MO |
| — | SLOT | #3Deion DeBlanc SO · 3-star 5'10" · 185 lb · TX |
| — | TE-Y | #89Jake Wilson RS SO · 3-star 6'5" · 243 lb · TX |
| — | TE-Y | #83Kyle Frendt RS FR · 3-star 6'5" · 240 lb · MN |
| — | LT | #70Rex Johnsen RS SR · 3-star 6'5" · 308 lb · IA |
| — | LT | #73Caleb Hall RS SO · 3-star 6'5" · 305 lb · -- |
| — | LG | #55Kalvin Janssen RS FR · 3-star 6'3" · 307 lb · NE |
| — | LG | #77Josiah Petaia RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 313 lb · CA |
| — | C | #51Jason Maciejczak RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 310 lb · SD |
| — | C | #66Johnathan Bush RS FR · 3-star 6'2" · 310 lb · TX |
| — | RG | #50Giovanni Panozzo RS SO · 3-star 6'5" · 314 lb · CO |
| — | RG | #52Chandler Donaway RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'1" · 305 lb · TX |
| — | RT | #63Braylon Jenkins RS SO · 3-star 6'4" · 315 lb · IA |
| — | RT | #60Grant Lott FR · 3-star 6'4" · 300 lb · MO |
| — | LDE | #21Jack Dunkley SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'4" · 253 lb · PA |
| — | LDE | #90Cade Brook RS FR · 2-star 6'3" · 256 lb · CO |
| — | RDE | #11Esaia Bogar SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'2" · 255 lb · CA |
| — | RDE | #51Thaddeus Gianaris RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'2" · 252 lb · IL |
| — | NT | #92Dante Drake RS JR · 3-star 6'3" · 296 lb · TX |
| — | NT | #97Alex Haswell RS SO · 3-star 6'5" · 295 lb · WY |
| — | RDT | #98Jayden Williams RS JR · 3-star 6'1" · 210 lb · -- |
| — | RDT | #44Ja'Quan Redfern RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 288 lb · NJ |
| — | MLB | #42Ethan Stuhlsatz GR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'4" · 237 lb · KS |
| — | MLB | #46Dash Bauman RS SO · 3-star 6'2" · 237 lb · NE |
| — | WLB | #26Gary Rutherford RS SO · 3-star 6'1" · 237 lb · IL |
| — | WLB | #33Parker Moore RS FR · 3-star 6'2" · 238 lb · KS |
| — | LCB | #3Ian Bell SR · 3-star 6'1" · 190 lb · CA |
| — | LCB | #12Kendall Griffin FR · 3-star 5'11" · 190 lb · IL |
| — | RCB | Tyson Shamsid-Deen SO · 3-star 5'10" · 180 lb · TX |
| — | RCB | #15David Leonard SO · 3-star 5'11" · 188 lb · MO |
| — | NB | #1Desman Hearns RS SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'0" · 190 lb · FL |
| — | NB | #2Travis Franklin Jr. SR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'3" · 190 lb · CA |
| — | FS | #23Jones Thomas RS JR · 3-star 6'2" · 205 lb · CO |
| — | FS | #22Jaden DaCosta RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'0" · 205 lb · CA |
| — | SS | #5Brooklyn Cheek RS SO/TR · 3-star · TR 6'1" · 205 lb · CA |
| — | SS | #4Jett Vincent RS JR/TR · 3-star · TR 6'2" · 203 lb · KS |