Pregame locks from /schedule. Elo = 1500 + 55×HX, HFA 60 (off on Neutral), quadratic spread. Win% was frozen. 70.8% SU is a 2019–2025 claim, not this tape.
Hits: San José St at USC — HASHMARK USC 95.0% / −37.8, Vegas −38.5, final USC 42–26. SU hit, ATS no. NC State at Virginia — UVA 52.9% / −1.1, Vegas −4.0, final UVA 34–8. SU and ATS both hit. NM State at Florida St — FSU 87.7% / −22.6, Vegas −31.5, final FSU 34–17. SU hit, closer than Vegas, ATS no.
Misses: UNC vs TCU, Dublin Neutral — TCU 74.2% / −10.9, Vegas −8.5, final UNC 15–10. Rain, 25 points, TCU WR Jordan Dwyer out. Dwyer is a note. We did not haircut the number. Hawaiʻi at Stanford, the flag — HASHMARK UH 53.8% / −1.4, Vegas Stanford −4.0, final Stanford 37–27. Frozen coach-change. If C20 had been on the matchup, Stanford ~59.6% / −3.6, near the close. That is a note, not a retune. Memphis at UNLV — UNLV 63.5% / −5.3, Vegas −4.0, final Memphis 27–21.
NDSU and Sacramento State stay off this piece. They are not on the 136. Next week the matchup shows HX* win% and a units score. If they disagree by 4, the site flags it.
Why it matters
First 2026 public ledger vs the close. The 70.8% number waits until this tape has a season behind it.
Sources