Clemson visits LSU Saturday night (6:30 CT, ABC). Live HX has LSU at −3.6 (59.5% win probability). The sourced Vegas close on the Week 1 schedule is LSU −10.5 with O/U 51.5 — nearly seven points of daylight, the largest HX-vs-Vegas disagreement on the Week 1 slate.
Preseason AP has LSU 11th. HX has them 20th (4.02), nine spots below the ballot, the largest HX–AP rank gap among ranked teams. Clemson is HX 21st and unranked in AP. ESPN FPI’s preseason title-odds table still keeps LSU in the top-10 championship conversation. HX is cooler on the Kiffin reboot until the tape proves otherwise.
This is the cleanest trust-the-model-or-trust-the-market card of Week 1.
Why it matters
Biggest live HX–Vegas gap; also the largest HX–AP rank gap among ranked teams.