No. 7 / HX No. 10 Miami opens at Stanford Friday (8:00 CT, ESPN). HASHMARK posts Miami −17.0 (82.5%). The sourced Vegas close on the Week 1 schedule is Miami −23.5 — a 6.5-point chill from HX versus the market, second only to the LSU gap.
Miami is still top-10 (5.23) but three spots below preseason AP (No. 7). Stanford already has a Week 0 win (37–27 over Hawaiʻi). HX is not fading Miami so much as refusing to price a three-touchdown road cover off one Cardinal tape.
Why it matters
Second-largest sourced HX–Vegas gap; clean Friday lead.