Week 1 SU 36/43 (83.7%). HX closer to the final than Vegas 20/43 (46.5%). Same tape, two scores. The SU number is this week’s ledger, not the 70.8% 2019–2025 claim.
Top |ΔHX| movers are O/D EPA — Rutgers, UMass, James Madison, Liberty, Notre Dame, Wisconsin. Term = O/D. No HX retune. No second rating.
The board’s disagreement card is Week 1 AP, not the Aug 17 preseason ballot. Virginia (−20), Houston (−18), LSU (−11), Missouri (+9), Texas Tech (+6) are the flags.
Why it matters
First full-slate public ledger of 2026. SU is the hit; closer is not. HX stays 2026.3.