Week 2 SU 37/47 (78.7%). HX closer to the final than Vegas 20/47 (42.6%) — FLAG, under 45%. Vegas closer 27/47. FBS–FBS only, n=47. Season W1–W2: SU 81.1% · closer 44.4%. This week’s ledger, not the 70.8% 2019–2025 claim.
HX Top 25 involvement (n=19, hx_rank ≤25 on HX 2026.3 pre-Δ): closer 12/19 (63.2%). Vegas 7/19. SU 17/19. MAE HX 10.81 / Vegas 12.03. That is the public scorecard beat. Full slate closer is soft. The ranked desk beat the book. AP-only alt is 12/18 (66.7%); HX Top 25 is the cut.
The two SU misses in the Top 25 cut: Oregon @ OKST (HX Oregon −27.0 / Vegas ORE −23.5 / FINAL 31–39) and OSU @ Texas (HX Ohio St −1.0 / Vegas TEX −1.5 / FINAL 23–24). Both Vegas closer.
HX closer hits (12): Missouri @ Kansas, OU @ Michigan, ASU @ Texas A&M, Arizona @ BYU, Rice @ Notre Dame, Alabama @ Kentucky, Utah St @ Washington, Iowa St @ Iowa, Louisiana Tech @ LSU, Texas Tech @ Oregon St, Arkansas @ Utah, Louisiana @ USC. Vegas closer (7): Oregon @ OKST, Penn St @ Temple, WKU @ Georgia, Tennessee @ Georgia Tech, Georgia Southern @ Clemson, OSU @ Texas, Charlotte @ Ole Miss.
Michigan winner-flip HIT: HX Mich −5.4 vs Vegas OU −5.5, FINAL Mich 17–10. Ten full-slate SU misses, HX favorites: Rutgers @ BC, App @ ECU, Oregon @ OKST, Duke @ Illinois, MSST @ Minnesota, UTSA @ Texas St, UNLV @ UNT, GaSt @ Kennesaw, Tulsa @ Sam Houston, OSU @ Texas. Winner-flip hits: USF @ Army, OU @ Michigan, Cal @ Syracuse, Navy @ FAU. HX ATS 20/47 (42.6%). Full-slate MAE HX 12.2 / Vegas 10.49. Brier 0.147. Research Vegas pack + ESPN FINALs. Tape is pre-Δ. HX stays 2026.3. No retune.
Why it matters
Second public ledger of 2026. Full slate closer is a FLAG. Top 25 desk beat Vegas 12/19. HX stays 2026.3 until a separate 2026.4 ship.