Western Kentucky visits No. 4 Indiana on Saturday (3:00 CT, Peacock). Live HASHMARK: Indiana −20.8 / 86.1%. Vegas close on the schedule: Indiana −44.5, O/U 60.5.
That is the largest absolute HX–Vegas gap on the featured Week 3 cards. HX ranks Indiana 11th (4.98) against AP 4. FPI has Indiana 6th; SP+ has Indiana 5th (25.4). Public efficiency boards and the ballot love the Hoosiers more than HX does — and the book is pricing a five-touchdown favorite HX will not match.
Do not invent WKU injury or Indiana portal angles. When the market goes nuclear, HX stays inside two to three scores. Pair with Clemson (−21.6 vs −3.5) and USC (−9.3 vs −23.5) for a three-chills cut.
Why it matters
Largest featured absolute spread gap; frames HX as the cooler chalk model on smash favorites.