Week 3 SU 49/56 (87.5%). HX closer to the final than Vegas 23/56 (41.1%) — FLAG, under 45%. Vegas closer 33/56. HX ATS 29/56 (51.8%). FBS–FBS only, n=56. Season W1–W3: SU 83.6% (122/146) · closer 43.2% (63/146). This week’s ledger, not the 70.8% 2019–2025 claim.
HX Top 25 involvement (n=21, hx_rank ≤25 on the live board): closer 5/21 (23.8%). Vegas 16/21. SU 20/21. Full slate closer stays FLAG. The ranked cut was not the scorecard beat this week — margin accuracy lagged Vegas on several chalk blowouts.
The one SU miss in the Top 25 cut: Kentucky @ Texas A&M (HX Texas A&M −26.0 / Vegas TA&M −16.5 / FINAL Kentucky 31–Texas A&M 21). Vegas closer.
HX closer hits in the Top 25 cut (5): Miami @ Wake Forest, USC @ Rutgers, Troy @ Missouri, LSU @ Ole Miss, UTSA @ Texas.
Seven full-slate SU misses, HX favorites: Kentucky @ Texas A&M, Mississippi State @ South Carolina, East Carolina @ Old Dominion, UConn @ Southern Miss, Ohio @ South Alabama, West Virginia @ Virginia, James Madison @ San Diego State. Winner-flip hits: Nevada @ Middle Tennessee (HX Middle Tennessee −5.0 vs Vegas NEV −3.5, FINAL 20–27), LSU @ Ole Miss (HX Ole Miss −7.8 vs Vegas LSU −3, FINAL 24–32). Winner-flip misses: UConn @ Southern Miss, Ohio @ South Alabama. HX ATS 29/56 (51.8%). Full-slate MAE HX 10.03 / Vegas 8.71. Brier 0.119. Research Vegas pack + ESPN FINALs. HX not retuned.
Why it matters
Third public ledger of 2026. Full slate closer is a FLAG. Top 25 closer 5/21. SU 20/21 in that cut. HX not retuned.