No. 2 Georgia (5–0) visits No. 6 Alabama (5–0) Saturday at 6:30 CT on ABC, with College GameDay set up at Denny Chimes and Bryce Young as guest picker.
The line has traveled. Alabama opened as a three-point home underdog and was bet to a 1.5-point favorite, per ESPN’s DraftKings tracking. ESPN’s FPI makes it Alabama by 0.9 with a 53% win probability.
HASHMARK lands on the other side: Georgia −4.6, 61.8%. HX rates Georgia No. 1 nationally at 7.90 and Alabama ninth at 5.29, a gap of more than two and a half points of rating. HX’s board also gives the Bulldogs an 86.5% Make 12 number.
Georgia arrives without junior running back Chauncey Bowens, its touchdown leader with six and the primary short-yardage back, who is out after an injury against Vanderbilt. Nate Frazier, the team’s leading rusher (211 yards), came off the availability report after bruised ribs. Alabama’s run defense is allowing 78.6 yards per game, third in the SEC.
HX is a team rating. It doesn’t adjust for a single running back’s availability. That’s the honest gap between the model and a market that has spent all week digesting injury reports.
Why it matters
It’s the week’s biggest game and the cleanest winner flip at the top of the board. HX and FPI split the winner, and the market moved toward Alabama.