HX agrees on the favorite in all three games. It just thinks the book has the margins too wide.
South Carolina at No. 16 Florida (11:45 CT, SEC Network): HX Florida −5.2 (63.3%) vs Vegas Florida −13.5. FPI has Florida by 8.5. HX rates Florida 24th, eight spots below its AP rank of 16, even after the Gators fell 8 spots in the poll.
No. 15 Tennessee at Arkansas (3:15 CT, SEC Network): HX Tennessee −7.4 (68.0%) vs Vegas −13.5. FPI is wider than both at 16.1.
UCF at No. 18 Oklahoma State (11:00 CT, ESPN2): HX Oklahoma State −1.9 (55.2%) vs Vegas −10.0. FPI says 4.4. HX rates Oklahoma State 89th (−1.17). That 71-spot gap against its AP rank is the biggest on the board.
The other way: No. 25 Pittsburgh (5–0) makes its AP debut ranked 53rd in HX. But against North Carolina, HX (Pitt −9.5) sits right next to FPI (9.2) and well above Vegas (−4.5).
Why it matters
These are the board’s biggest ranked-team margin gaps. They’re a fair test of the soft-calibration FLAG that’s been on the board all season. The Week 5 full-slate closer was 20/55.