Missouri jumped from No. 25 to No. 14 in the AP Week 6 poll after a 45–17 win over Florida, a game HX had as a winner flip toward the Tigers (Missouri −5.6 vs Vegas Florida −4.5). That one hit.
This week the model flips the other way. Texas A&M (3–2) visits Missouri (4–1) at 11:00 CT on ABC, and HX has Texas A&M −2.1, 55.7% against Vegas Missouri −3.5. FPI calls it nearly even, Missouri by 0.8 with a 52% win probability.
The disagreement is about A&M more than Missouri. HX rates the Aggies sixth nationally at 6.06 despite two losses and no AP ranking. Missouri sits 14th in HX at 4.25, which happens to match its new AP rank exactly. HX has held A&M high all season. It took the Aggies at LSU in Week 4 as a winner flip, and that one missed.
Why it matters
It’s an 11:00 window winner flip involving a ranked home team, and it’s a direct test of HX’s most stubborn AP disagreement.