Mountain West · Fargo, ND
North Dakota State
Bison · 7–2 · 2025: 8–0 MVFC (FCS)
HX history starts the week this team joined the board (Week 12): 0.31, No. 59.
Strength of record No. 45 (−0.49 wins vs a top-25 team) · schedule played No. 134 · schedule left No. 136. All teams
Mountain West race: 0.2% to reach the title game, <0.1% to win the league. Full race
Remaining schedule
Unplayed FBS slate plus FCS stubs. HASHMARK spread and win% from HX; FCS is Vegas-only (no invented HASHMARK spread).
- Week 11 · 2026-11-14 · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
@ HawaiʻiOpponent pageHASHMARKN Dakota St −7.467.8% to winVegasN Dakota St −6.5O/U 38.5 - Week 12 · 2026-11-21 · Fargodome
vs Northern IllinoisOpponent pageHASHMARKN Dakota St −26.690.3% to winVegasNo line posted - Week 13 · 2026-11-27 · CEFCU Stadium
@ San José StateOpponent pageHASHMARKN Dakota St −6.866.8% to winVegasNo line posted
Advanced stats
All teams in the stats explorer →- Net adjusted EPA per play
- +0.051#55 of 138
- Offensive adjusted EPA per play
- 0.035#98 of 138
- Defensive adjusted EPA per play allowed
- -0.016#21 of 138
- Offensive success rate
- 37.7#109 of 138
- Defensive success rate allowed
- 37.9#26 of 138
- Offensive explosiveness
- 1.336#24 of 138
- Explosiveness allowed
- 1.193#40 of 138
- Offensive line yards
- 2.71#106 of 138
- Line yards allowed
- 2.95#73 of 138
- Defensive havoc rate
- 18.5#23 of 138
- Havoc allowed
- 14.5#64 of 138
Definitions and sources
- Net adjusted EPA per play (CFBD, opponent-adjusted): Offensive adjusted EPA/play minus defensive adjusted EPA/play allowed. EPA = expected points added: how much each play changed the expected points of the drive.
- Offensive adjusted EPA per play (CFBD, opponent-adjusted): Average EPA per offensive play, adjusted for opposing defenses.
- Defensive adjusted EPA per play allowed (CFBD, opponent-adjusted): Average EPA per play allowed, adjusted for opposing offenses. Lower is better.
- Offensive success rate (CFBD, opponent-adjusted): Share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th. Opponent-adjusted.
- Defensive success rate allowed (CFBD, opponent-adjusted): Opponent success rate, adjusted for opposing offenses. Lower is better.
- Offensive explosiveness (CFBD, opponent-adjusted): Average EPA on successful plays: how big the good plays are. Opponent-adjusted.
- Explosiveness allowed (CFBD, opponent-adjusted): Average EPA on opponents' successful plays. Lower is better.
- Offensive line yards (CFBD, opponent-adjusted): Rushing yards credited to the line: 0–4 yards full credit, 5–10 half, losses count 120%. Opponent-adjusted.
- Line yards allowed (CFBD, opponent-adjusted): Opponent line yards per carry. Lower is better.
- Defensive havoc rate (CFBD play-by-play): Share of defensive plays with a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup. Raw, not opponent-adjusted.
- Havoc allowed (CFBD play-by-play): Share of offensive plays with a havoc event against. Lower is better.
Source: CollegeFootballData (CFBD) API: PPA/EPA, success rate, explosiveness, line yards, havoc, player PPA and usage, through games kicked off by 2026-11-12 (UTC), 8 FBS games. Team EPA/play, success rate, explosiveness, and line yards are opponent-adjusted: ridge fit of offense + opposing defense + home field over FBS–FBS games (1 pseudo-game toward average). Havoc and player PPA are raw season values. Rank is among 138 FBS teams; #1 is best (lowest for defensive "allowed" stats). These are stats, not HX.
HX vs results
HX 2026.8 · FBS FINALs through Week 11
Expected margin is the pregame HX line for each game (the board in effect at kickoff). Actual is the final.
No graded FINALs yet. Games played before this team joined the board had no pregame HX line.
Newcomer prior -2.69 → now 0.31 (#59)
Season schedule
Full FBS slate — HASHMARK line and the Vegas line when stamped; FINAL when locked.
- Week 1 · 2026-08-29 · Fargodome
vs Jacksonville StateJax State 7–33 N Dakota St
Opponent pageHASHMARKNo pregame HXVegasNo line postedFINALJax State 7–33 N Dakota St - Week 2 · 2026-09-12 · Falcon Stadium
@ Air ForceN Dakota St 38–32 Air Force
Opponent pageHASHMARKNo pregame HXVegasN Dakota St −1.5FINALN Dakota St 38–32 Air Force - Week 3 · 2026-09-19 · Hornet Stadium
@ Sacramento StateN Dakota St 31–10 Sacramento St
Opponent pageHASHMARKNo pregame HXVegasNo line postedFINALN Dakota St 31–10 Sacramento St - Week 5 · 2026-10-03 · Fargodome
vs WyomingWyoming 0–28 N Dakota St
Opponent pageHASHMARKNo pregame HXVegasNo line postedFINALWyoming 0–28 N Dakota St - Week 6 · 2026-10-10 · Allegiant Stadium
@ UNLVN Dakota St 7–13 UNLV
Opponent pageHASHMARKNo pregame HXVegasNo line postedFINALN Dakota St 7–13 UNLV - Week 7 · 2026-10-17 · Fargodome
vs NevadaNevada 17–31 N Dakota St
Opponent pageHASHMARKNo pregame HXVegasNo line postedFINALNevada 17–31 N Dakota St - Week 8 · 2026-10-24 · University Stadium (NM)
@ New MexicoN Dakota St 16–21 New Mexico
Opponent pageHASHMARKNo pregame HXVegasNo line postedFINALN Dakota St 16–21 New Mexico - Week 9 · 2026-10-31 · Fargodome
vs UTEPUTEP 7–31 N Dakota St
Opponent pageHASHMARKNo pregame HXVegasNo line postedFINALUTEP 7–31 N Dakota St - Week 11 · 2026-11-14 · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex@ HawaiʻiOpponent pageHASHMARKN Dakota St −7.467.8% to winVegasN Dakota St −6.5O/U 38.5
- Week 12 · 2026-11-21 · Fargodomevs Northern IllinoisOpponent pageHASHMARKN Dakota St −26.690.3% to winVegasNo line posted
- Week 13 · 2026-11-27 · CEFCU Stadium@ San José StateOpponent pageHASHMARKN Dakota St −6.866.8% to winVegasNo line posted
2026 FBS newcomer
This program moved up from FCS in 2026 and was not on the preseason board. Its HX starts from the newcomer prior (the mean preseason HX of the 2025 newcomers Delaware and Missouri State) and is refit weekly on its FBS results like every other team. Games it played before joining the board show no pregame HX line and are not graded. Talent, recruiting class, size, and two-deep panels return once a sourced profile is stamped.