MAC · Sacramento, CA
Sacramento State
Hornets · 2–9 · 2025: FCS Independent
HX history starts the week this team joined the board (Week 12): −6.21, No. 138.
Strength of record No. 138 (−7.22 wins vs a top-25 team) · schedule played No. 130 · schedule left No. 127. All teams
MAC race: 0% to reach the title game, 0% to win the league. Full race
Remaining schedule
Unplayed FBS slate plus FCS stubs. HASHMARK spread and win% from HX; FCS is Vegas-only (no invented HASHMARK spread).
Advanced stats
All teams in the stats explorer →- Net adjusted EPA per play
- -0.330#137 of 138
- Offensive adjusted EPA per play
- -0.147#137 of 138
- Defensive adjusted EPA per play allowed
- 0.183#107 of 138
- Offensive success rate
- 34.5#131 of 138
- Defensive success rate allowed
- 43.5#94 of 138
- Offensive explosiveness
- 1.088#135 of 138
- Explosiveness allowed
- 1.354#120 of 138
- Offensive line yards
- 2.34#135 of 138
- Line yards allowed
- 3.32#131 of 138
- Defensive havoc rate
- 12.4#125 of 138
- Havoc allowed
- 18.2#123 of 138
Definitions and sources
- Net adjusted EPA per play (CFBD, opponent-adjusted): Offensive adjusted EPA/play minus defensive adjusted EPA/play allowed. EPA = expected points added: how much each play changed the expected points of the drive.
- Offensive adjusted EPA per play (CFBD, opponent-adjusted): Average EPA per offensive play, adjusted for opposing defenses.
- Defensive adjusted EPA per play allowed (CFBD, opponent-adjusted): Average EPA per play allowed, adjusted for opposing offenses. Lower is better.
- Offensive success rate (CFBD, opponent-adjusted): Share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th. Opponent-adjusted.
- Defensive success rate allowed (CFBD, opponent-adjusted): Opponent success rate, adjusted for opposing offenses. Lower is better.
- Offensive explosiveness (CFBD, opponent-adjusted): Average EPA on successful plays: how big the good plays are. Opponent-adjusted.
- Explosiveness allowed (CFBD, opponent-adjusted): Average EPA on opponents' successful plays. Lower is better.
- Offensive line yards (CFBD, opponent-adjusted): Rushing yards credited to the line: 0–4 yards full credit, 5–10 half, losses count 120%. Opponent-adjusted.
- Line yards allowed (CFBD, opponent-adjusted): Opponent line yards per carry. Lower is better.
- Defensive havoc rate (CFBD play-by-play): Share of defensive plays with a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup. Raw, not opponent-adjusted.
- Havoc allowed (CFBD play-by-play): Share of offensive plays with a havoc event against. Lower is better.
Source: CollegeFootballData (CFBD) API: PPA/EPA, success rate, explosiveness, line yards, havoc, player PPA and usage, through games kicked off by 2026-11-12 (UTC), 10 FBS games. Team EPA/play, success rate, explosiveness, and line yards are opponent-adjusted: ridge fit of offense + opposing defense + home field over FBS–FBS games (1 pseudo-game toward average). Havoc and player PPA are raw season values. Rank is among 138 FBS teams; #1 is best (lowest for defensive "allowed" stats). These are stats, not HX.
HX vs results
HX 2026.8 · FBS FINALs through Week 11
Expected margin is the pregame HX line for each game (the board in effect at kickoff). Actual is the final.
No graded FINALs yet. Games played before this team joined the board had no pregame HX line.
Newcomer prior -2.69 → now -6.21 (#138)
Season schedule
Full FBS slate — HASHMARK line and the Vegas line when stamped; FINAL when locked.
- Week 1 · 2026-08-29 · Rynearson Stadium
@ Eastern MichiganSacramento St 17–28 Eastern Mich
Opponent pageHASHMARKNo pregame HXVegasNo line postedFINALSacramento St 17–28 Eastern Mich - Week 2 · 2026-09-12 · Valley Children's Stadium
@ Fresno StateSacramento St 3–49 Fresno St
Opponent pageHASHMARKNo pregame HXVegasFresno St −18.5FINALSacramento St 3–49 Fresno St - Week 3 · 2026-09-19 · Hornet Stadium
vs North Dakota StateN Dakota St 31–10 Sacramento St
Opponent pageHASHMARKNo pregame HXVegasNo line postedFINALN Dakota St 31–10 Sacramento St - Week 4 · 2026-09-26 · Hornet Stadium
vs MassachusettsUMass 35–6 Sacramento St
Opponent pageHASHMARKNo pregame HXVegasNo line postedFINALUMass 35–6 Sacramento St - Week 6 · 2026-10-10 · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
@ Bowling GreenSacramento St 10–38 Bowling Grn
Opponent pageHASHMARKNo pregame HXVegasNo line postedFINALSacramento St 10–38 Bowling Grn - Week 7 · 2026-10-17 · Hornet Stadium
vs OhioOhio 48–7 Sacramento St
Opponent pageHASHMARKNo pregame HXVegasNo line postedFINALOhio 48–7 Sacramento St - Week 8 · 2026-10-24 · Scheumann Stadium
@ Ball StateSacramento St 17–34 Ball St
Opponent pageHASHMARKNo pregame HXVegasNo line postedFINALSacramento St 17–34 Ball St - Week 9 · 2026-10-30 · Hornet Stadium
vs Kent StateKent St 10–31 Sacramento St
Opponent pageHASHMARKNo pregame HXVegasNo line postedFINALKent St 10–31 Sacramento St - Week 10 · 2026-11-04 · Hornet Stadium
vs ToledoToledo 20–17 Sacramento St
Opponent pageHASHMARKNo pregame HXVegasNo line postedFINALToledo 20–17 Sacramento St - Week 11 · 2026-11-11 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
@ Central MichiganSacramento St 7–28 Central Mich
Opponent pageHASHMARKNo pregame HXVegasNo line postedFINALSacramento St 7–28 Central Mich - Week 13 · 2026-11-28 · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
@ HawaiʻiOpponent pageHASHMARKHawaiʻi −14.078.9% to winVegasNo line posted
2026 FBS newcomer
This program moved up from FCS in 2026 and was not on the preseason board. Its HX starts from the newcomer prior (the mean preseason HX of the 2025 newcomers Delaware and Missouri State) and is refit weekly on its FBS results like every other team. Games it played before joining the board show no pregame HX line and are not graded. Talent, recruiting class, size, and two-deep panels return once a sourced profile is stamped.