HX 2026.8 · 10,000 simulated seasons · 2026-11-12
Conference races
Who reaches each title game and who wins the league, from the same 10,000 HX season simulations behind Make 12. FINALs are locked; every remaining game is drawn from HX win probability.
Mountain West favorite
Boise StateWin the league
69.1%
Title game
100.0%
Still alive
7 of 13
| Team | Conf now | Proj conf | Title gmTitle game | ChampWin the league |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise StateHX No. 15 · 3–0 conf | 3–0 | 3.9–0.1 | 100.0% | 69.1% |
 New MexicoHX No. 50 · 4–0 conf | 4–0 | 6.3–0.7 | 90.5% | 28.6% |
 Utah StateHX No. 72 · 2–1 conf | 2–1 | 2.5–1.5 | 8.3% | 2.1% |
 San Diego StateHX No. 92 · 1–1 conf | 1–1 | 1.6–2.4 | 0.7% | <0.1% |
 North Dakota StateHX No. 59 · 3–2 conf | 3–2 | 4.3–2.7 | 0.2% | <0.1% |
 UNLVHX No. 85 · 2–2 conf | 2–2 | 3.5–3.5 | 0.1% | <0.1% |
 WyomingHX No. 109 · 4–2 conf | 4–2 | 4.3–2.7 | 0.2% | <0.1% |
 Air ForceHX No. 101 · 2–2 conf | 2–2 | 2.8–3.2 | 0% | 0% |
 Colorado StateHX No. 119 · 2–2 conf | 2–2 | 2.2–2.8 | 0% | 0% |
 San José StateHX No. 116 · 1–4 conf | 1–4 | 2.1–5.9 | 0% | 0% |
 NevadaHX No. 113 · 1–3 conf | 1–3 | 1.9–4.1 | 0% | 0% |
 Fresno StateHX No. 56 · 1–3 conf | 1–3 | 1.8–3.2 | 0% | 0% |
 HawaiʻiHX No. 118 · 0–4 conf | 0–4 | 0.7–5.3 | 0% | 0% |
How this works
- 10,000 seasons, fixed seed 20261112, on the HX 2026.8 board. Each remaining game is a coin weighted by HX win probability (Elo = 1500 + 55 × HX, 60 points home field). Played games are locked.
- Top two by simulated conference win % (then conference wins, then HX, then a coin flip) meet at a neutral site. This is a simplified tiebreak, not each league's full rulebook.
- Pac-12 has two members in 2026 and no title game: champion by overall record, then head-to-head, then HX.
- Title-game odds add to 200% in each league (two teams per game); league-title odds add to 100%. “<0.1%” means alive but rare; 0% means it never happened in the draws.
- Same draws as Make 12 on the rankings. Method details on The Model.