HX 2026.8 · 10,000 simulated seasons · 2026-11-12

Conference races

Who reaches each title game and who wins the league, from the same 10,000 HX season simulations behind Make 12. FINALs are locked; every remaining game is drawn from HX win probability.

SEC Big Ten ACC Big 12 American Sun Belt MAC CUSA Mountain West Pac-12

MAC favorite

Western Michigan

Win the league

51.1%

Title game

84.2%

Still alive

5 of 14

Team	Conf now	Proj conf	Title gmTitle game	ChampWin the league
Western MichiganHX No. 62 · 5–1 conf	5–1	6.6–1.4	84.2%	51.1%
ToledoHX No. 77 · 5–1 conf	5–1	6.3–1.7	50.3%	23.3%
BuffaloHX No. 88 · 5–1 conf	5–1	6.4–1.6	36.8%	14.5%
OhioHX No. 89 · 5–1 conf	5–1	6.3–1.7	28.6%	11.0%
Miami (OH)HX No. 96 · 4–2 conf	4–2	4.9–3.1	<0.1%	<0.1%
Central MichiganHX No. 99 · 3–3 conf	3–3	4.0–4.0	0%	0%
Bowling GreenHX No. 120 · 3–3 conf	3–3	3.9–4.1	0%	0%
Eastern MichiganHX No. 127 · 3–3 conf	3–3	3.8–4.2	0%	0%
MassachusettsHX No. 131 · 2–4 conf	2–4	3.0–5.0	0%	0%
Kent StateHX No. 130 · 2–4 conf	2–4	2.7–5.3	0%	0%
Ball StateHX No. 129 · 2–4 conf	2–4	2.6–5.4	0%	0%
Sacramento StateHX No. 138 · 1–7 conf	1–7	1.0–7.0	0%	0%
AkronHX No. 137 · 0–6 conf	0–6	0.6–7.4	0%	0%
Northern IllinoisHX No. 135 · 0–0 conf	0–0	0.0–0.0	0%	0%

How this works

10,000 seasons, fixed seed 20261112, on the HX 2026.8 board. Each remaining game is a coin weighted by HX win probability (Elo = 1500 + 55 × HX, 60 points home field). Played games are locked.
Top two by simulated conference win % (then conference wins, then HX, then a coin flip) meet at a neutral site. This is a simplified tiebreak, not each league's full rulebook.
Pac-12 has two members in 2026 and no title game: champion by overall record, then head-to-head, then HX.
Title-game odds add to 200% in each league (two teams per game); league-title odds add to 100%. “<0.1%” means alive but rare; 0% means it never happened in the draws.
Same draws as Make 12 on the rankings. Method details on The Model.