Current HX · real 2026 schedule
Strength of record & schedule
Strength of record asks how much better your record is than a typical top-25 team's would be against the same opponents, at the same sites. The benchmark is the current No. 25 on the HX board (USC, HX 3.00). Schedule strength is the average current HX of FBS opponents, played and still to come.
5
Miami8–1 · HX No. 3
Miami8–1 · HX No. 3+2.40
SOR No. 5
Top-25 team
5.6–3.4
Played
1.45 · No. 31
Left
0.76 · No. 61
11
Wake Forest8–1 · HX No. 24
Wake Forest8–1 · HX No. 24+1.63
SOR No. 11
Top-25 team
6.4–2.6
Played
-0.11 · No. 72
Left
0.99 · No. 56
28
SMU7–2 · HX No. 34
SMU7–2 · HX No. 34+0.34
SOR No. 28
Top-25 team
6.7–2.3
Played
-0.14 · No. 73
Left
2.39 · No. 26
33
Clemson6–3 · HX No. 37
Clemson6–3 · HX No. 37+0.27
SOR No. 33
Top-25 team
5.7–3.3
Played
1.59 · No. 28
Left
1.34 · No. 49
35
Duke7–2 · HX No. 33
Duke7–2 · HX No. 33+0.18
SOR No. 35
Top-25 team
6.8–2.2
Played
-0.56 · No. 78
Left
3.69 · No. 11
41
Louisville6–3 · HX No. 19
Louisville6–3 · HX No. 19−0.21
SOR No. 41
Top-25 team
6.2–2.8
Played
0.83 · No. 52
Left
1.96 · No. 35
43
North Carolina5–4 · HX No. 41
North Carolina5–4 · HX No. 41−0.32
SOR No. 43
Top-25 team
5.3–3.7
Played
2.11 · No. 16
Left
0.93 · No. 58
47
Virginia Tech6–3 · HX No. 52
Virginia Tech6–3 · HX No. 52−0.56
SOR No. 47
Top-25 team
6.6–2.4
Played
-0.45 · No. 75
Left
1.43 · No. 46
56
Florida State5–5 · HX No. 48
Florida State5–5 · HX No. 48−0.95
SOR No. 56
Top-25 team
6.0–4.0
Played
1.86 · No. 22
Left
0.98 · No. 57
63
Pittsburgh6–4 · HX No. 49
Pittsburgh6–4 · HX No. 49−1.13
SOR No. 63
Top-25 team
7.1–2.9
Played
0.55 · No. 60
Left
0.80 · No. 60
70
Stanford4–5 · HX No. 90
Stanford4–5 · HX No. 90−1.35
SOR No. 70
Top-25 team
5.4–3.6
Played
1.85 · No. 23
Left
0.44 · No. 62
83
Syracuse4–5 · HX No. 75
Syracuse4–5 · HX No. 75−2.08
SOR No. 83
Top-25 team
6.1–2.9
Played
0.93 · No. 45
Left
1.32 · No. 50
86
Virginia4–5 · HX No. 66
Virginia4–5 · HX No. 66−2.18
SOR No. 86
Top-25 team
6.2–2.8
Played
0.77 · No. 54
Left
0.22 · No. 65
92
Boston College4–5 · HX No. 83
Boston College4–5 · HX No. 83−2.27
SOR No. 92
Top-25 team
6.3–2.7
Played
0.54 · No. 61
Left
3.75 · No. 10
96
NC State4–5 · HX No. 80
NC State4–5 · HX No. 80−2.47
SOR No. 96
Top-25 team
6.5–2.5
Played
0.37 · No. 65
Left
0.88 · No. 59
104
California3–6 · HX No. 94
California3–6 · HX No. 94−2.96
SOR No. 104
Top-25 team
6.0–3.0
Played
1.25 · No. 34
Left
-0.11 · No. 68
119
Georgia Tech2–7 · HX No. 97
Georgia Tech2–7 · HX No. 97−4.08
SOR No. 119
Top-25 team
6.1–2.9
Played
1.17 · No. 40
Left
4.15 · No. 6
Method
- Benchmark: the current No. 25 team on the HX board. For each game already played, its win chance uses the HX matchup engine (Elo = 1500 + 55 × HX, 60 points home field, none at neutral sites). Against an FCS opponent it uses the season sim's fixed rule: 92% home, 88% away.
- SOR = actual wins − the benchmark's expected wins on those games. +1.00 means one more win than a typical top-25 team would have.
- Schedule played / left = average current HX of FBS opponents, ranked 1–138 (No. 1 = hardest). FCS opponents have no HX, so they are counted but left out of the average.
- Everything uses current HX, so a win over a team that has since risen counts for more. Only real FINALs and the real remaining slate are used. More on The Model.