Current HX · real 2026 schedule
Strength of record & schedule
Strength of record asks how much better your record is than a typical top-25 team's would be against the same opponents, at the same sites. The benchmark is the current No. 25 on the HX board (USC, HX 3.00). Schedule strength is the average current HX of FBS opponents, played and still to come.
40
James Madison8–2 · HX No. 40
James Madison8–2 · HX No. 40−0.19
SOR No. 40
Top-25 team
8.2–1.8
Played
-1.92 · No. 118
Left
-2.24 · No. 103
64
Texas State5–4 · HX No. 45
Texas State5–4 · HX No. 45−1.14
SOR No. 64
Top-25 team
6.1–2.9
Played
0.64 · No. 56
Left
-0.87 · No. 76
66
Louisiana7–3 · HX No. 78
Louisiana7–3 · HX No. 78−1.17
SOR No. 66
Top-25 team
8.2–1.8
Played
-2.28 · No. 128
Left
-2.30 · No. 104
76
Georgia Southern5–4 · HX No. 74
Georgia Southern5–4 · HX No. 74−1.80
SOR No. 76
Top-25 team
6.8–2.2
Played
-0.66 · No. 79
Left
-1.37 · No. 86
78
Marshall5–4 · HX No. 104
Marshall5–4 · HX No. 104−1.94
SOR No. 78
Top-25 team
6.9–2.1
Played
-1.42 · No. 99
Left
-3.27 · No. 130
89
App State5–4 · HX No. 114
App State5–4 · HX No. 114−2.25
SOR No. 89
Top-25 team
7.2–1.8
Played
-1.72 · No. 112
Left
-3.20 · No. 129
90
Georgia State5–4 · HX No. 95
Georgia State5–4 · HX No. 95−2.26
SOR No. 90
Top-25 team
7.3–1.7
Played
-2.26 · No. 126
Left
-1.12 · No. 84
99
Troy4–5 · HX No. 108
Troy4–5 · HX No. 108−2.70
SOR No. 99
Top-25 team
6.7–2.3
Played
-1.10 · No. 89
Left
-1.71 · No. 93
105
South Alabama4–5 · HX No. 100
South Alabama4–5 · HX No. 100−3.01
SOR No. 105
Top-25 team
7.0–2.0
Played
-1.45 · No. 101
Left
-3.10 · No. 126
108
Arkansas State4–5 · HX No. 112
Arkansas State4–5 · HX No. 112−3.17
SOR No. 108
Top-25 team
7.2–1.8
Played
-1.78 · No. 115
Left
-1.61 · No. 90
122
Southern Miss3–6 · HX No. 126
Southern Miss3–6 · HX No. 126−4.17
SOR No. 122
Top-25 team
7.2–1.8
Played
-1.42 · No. 100
Left
-1.77 · No. 94
123
Coastal Carolina3–6 · HX No. 111
Coastal Carolina3–6 · HX No. 111−4.18
SOR No. 123
Top-25 team
7.2–1.8
Played
-1.37 · No. 98
Left
-0.48 · No. 70
127
Old Dominion3–7 · HX No. 125
Old Dominion3–7 · HX No. 125−4.73
SOR No. 127
Top-25 team
7.7–2.3
Played
-0.95 · No. 85
Left
-2.87 · No. 118
135
UL Monroe2–8 · HX No. 133
UL Monroe2–8 · HX No. 133−6.02
SOR No. 135
Top-25 team
8.0–2.0
Played
-1.58 · No. 109
Left
-2.60 · No. 114
Method
- Benchmark: the current No. 25 team on the HX board. For each game already played, its win chance uses the HX matchup engine (Elo = 1500 + 55 × HX, 60 points home field, none at neutral sites). Against an FCS opponent it uses the season sim's fixed rule: 92% home, 88% away.
- SOR = actual wins − the benchmark's expected wins on those games. +1.00 means one more win than a typical top-25 team would have.
- Schedule played / left = average current HX of FBS opponents, ranked 1–138 (No. 1 = hardest). FCS opponents have no HX, so they are counted but left out of the average.
- Everything uses current HX, so a win over a team that has since risen counts for more. Only real FINALs and the real remaining slate are used. More on The Model.