Current HX · real 2026 schedule
Strength of record & schedule
Strength of record asks how much better your record is than a typical top-25 team's would be against the same opponents, at the same sites. The benchmark is the current No. 25 on the HX board (USC, HX 3.00). Schedule strength is the average current HX of FBS opponents, played and still to come.
49
Toledo8–2 · HX No. 77
Toledo8–2 · HX No. 77−0.60
SOR No. 49
Top-25 team
8.6–1.4
Played
-2.90 · No. 138
Left
-2.47 · No. 106
53
Western Michigan7–3 · HX No. 62
Western Michigan7–3 · HX No. 62−0.82
SOR No. 53
Top-25 team
7.8–2.2
Played
-1.82 · No. 116
Left
-3.04 · No. 123
59
Buffalo7–3 · HX No. 88
Buffalo7–3 · HX No. 88−1.06
SOR No. 59
Top-25 team
8.1–1.9
Played
-1.86 · No. 117
Left
-4.00 · No. 137
69
Ohio7–3 · HX No. 89
Ohio7–3 · HX No. 89−1.29
SOR No. 69
Top-25 team
8.3–1.7
Played
-2.82 · No. 136
Left
-2.50 · No. 108
88
Miami (OH)6–4 · HX No. 96
Miami (OH)6–4 · HX No. 96−2.22
SOR No. 88
Top-25 team
8.2–1.8
Played
-2.17 · No. 123
Left
-2.21 · No. 101
100
Central Michigan5–5 · HX No. 99
Central Michigan5–5 · HX No. 99−2.81
SOR No. 100
Top-25 team
7.8–2.2
Played
-1.67 · No. 110
Left
-3.07 · No. 125
112
Massachusetts5–5 · HX No. 131
Massachusetts5–5 · HX No. 131−3.49
SOR No. 112
Top-25 team
8.5–1.5
Played
-2.87 · No. 137
Left
-4.65 · No. 138
120
Eastern Michigan4–6 · HX No. 127
Eastern Michigan4–6 · HX No. 127−4.11
SOR No. 120
Top-25 team
8.1–1.9
Played
-2.41 · No. 129
Left
-2.21 · No. 101
124
Ball State3–7 · HX No. 129
Ball State3–7 · HX No. 129−4.37
SOR No. 124
Top-25 team
7.4–2.6
Played
-1.25 · No. 94
Left
-1.82 · No. 95
125
Kent State3–7 · HX No. 130
Kent State3–7 · HX No. 130−4.41
SOR No. 125
Top-25 team
7.4–2.6
Played
-1.50 · No. 103
Left
-3.04 · No. 123
128
Bowling Green3–7 · HX No. 120
Bowling Green3–7 · HX No. 120−4.74
SOR No. 128
Top-25 team
7.7–2.3
Played
-1.74 · No. 114
Left
-2.59 · No. 113
136
Northern Illinois0–9 · HX No. 135
Northern Illinois0–9 · HX No. 135−6.61
SOR No. 136
Top-25 team
6.6–2.4
Played
-0.92 · No. 83
Left
-2.81 · No. 116
137
Akron1–9 · HX No. 137
Akron1–9 · HX No. 137−6.79
SOR No. 137
Top-25 team
7.8–2.2
Played
-1.33 · No. 96
Left
-3.16 · No. 128
138
Sacramento State2–9 · HX No. 138
Sacramento State2–9 · HX No. 138−7.22
SOR No. 138
Top-25 team
9.2–1.8
Played
-2.47 · No. 130
Left
-3.14 · No. 127
Method
- Benchmark: the current No. 25 team on the HX board. For each game already played, its win chance uses the HX matchup engine (Elo = 1500 + 55 × HX, 60 points home field, none at neutral sites). Against an FCS opponent it uses the season sim's fixed rule: 92% home, 88% away.
- SOR = actual wins − the benchmark's expected wins on those games. +1.00 means one more win than a typical top-25 team would have.
- Schedule played / left = average current HX of FBS opponents, ranked 1–138 (No. 1 = hardest). FCS opponents have no HX, so they are counted but left out of the average.
- Everything uses current HX, so a win over a team that has since risen counts for more. Only real FINALs and the real remaining slate are used. More on The Model.