Current HX · real 2026 schedule
Strength of record & schedule
Strength of record asks how much better your record is than a typical top-25 team's would be against the same opponents, at the same sites. The benchmark is the current No. 25 on the HX board (USC, HX 3.00). Schedule strength is the average current HX of FBS opponents, played and still to come.
10
Boise State8–1 · HX No. 15
Boise State8–1 · HX No. 15+1.72
SOR No. 10
Top-25 team
6.3–2.7
Played
0.31 · No. 66
Left
-0.78 · No. 72
23
New Mexico8–1 · HX No. 50
New Mexico8–1 · HX No. 50+0.69
SOR No. 23
Top-25 team
7.3–1.7
Played
-2.27 · No. 127
Left
-1.98 · No. 97
45
North Dakota State7–2 · HX No. 59
North Dakota State7–2 · HX No. 59−0.49
SOR No. 45
Top-25 team
7.5–1.5
Played
-2.58 · No. 134
Left
-3.92 · No. 136
48
Air Force7–2 · HX No. 101
Air Force7–2 · HX No. 101−0.58
SOR No. 48
Top-25 team
7.6–1.4
Played
-2.24 · No. 125
Left
-2.55 · No. 111
72
Wyoming6–3 · HX No. 109
Wyoming6–3 · HX No. 109−1.45
SOR No. 72
Top-25 team
7.4–1.6
Played
-2.50 · No. 131
Left
-2.16 · No. 100
73
Fresno State5–4 · HX No. 56
Fresno State5–4 · HX No. 56−1.62
SOR No. 73
Top-25 team
6.6–2.4
Played
-1.08 · No. 88
Left
-0.84 · No. 74
82
Utah State4–5 · HX No. 72
Utah State4–5 · HX No. 72−2.04
SOR No. 82
Top-25 team
6.0–3.0
Played
0.55 · No. 59
Left
-0.78 · No. 72
93
UNLV5–4 · HX No. 85
UNLV5–4 · HX No. 85−2.37
SOR No. 93
Top-25 team
7.4–1.6
Played
-2.20 · No. 124
Left
-1.51 · No. 88
94
San Diego State4–5 · HX No. 92
San Diego State4–5 · HX No. 92−2.40
SOR No. 94
Top-25 team
6.4–2.6
Played
0.28 · No. 67
Left
1.86 · No. 36
106
San José State5–5 · HX No. 116
San José State5–5 · HX No. 116−3.09
SOR No. 106
Top-25 team
8.1–1.9
Played
-2.16 · No. 122
Left
-1.02 · No. 81
110
Colorado State3–6 · HX No. 119
Colorado State3–6 · HX No. 119−3.34
SOR No. 110
Top-25 team
6.3–2.7
Played
0.59 · No. 57
Left
-0.87 · No. 76
118
Nevada3–6 · HX No. 113
Nevada3–6 · HX No. 113−4.05
SOR No. 118
Top-25 team
7.0–2.0
Played
-1.50 · No. 105
Left
-3.33 · No. 132
126
Hawaiʻi3–6 · HX No. 118
Hawaiʻi3–6 · HX No. 118−4.44
SOR No. 126
Top-25 team
7.4–1.6
Played
-2.56 · No. 133
Left
-2.90 · No. 119
Method
- Benchmark: the current No. 25 team on the HX board. For each game already played, its win chance uses the HX matchup engine (Elo = 1500 + 55 × HX, 60 points home field, none at neutral sites). Against an FCS opponent it uses the season sim's fixed rule: 92% home, 88% away.
- SOR = actual wins − the benchmark's expected wins on those games. +1.00 means one more win than a typical top-25 team would have.
- Schedule played / left = average current HX of FBS opponents, ranked 1–138 (No. 1 = hardest). FCS opponents have no HX, so they are counted but left out of the average.
- Everything uses current HX, so a win over a team that has since risen counts for more. Only real FINALs and the real remaining slate are used. More on The Model.