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Current HX · real 2026 schedule

Strength of record & schedule

Strength of record asks how much better your record is than a typical top-25 team's would be against the same opponents, at the same sites. The benchmark is the current No. 25 on the HX board (USC, HX 3.00). Schedule strength is the average current HX of FBS opponents, played and still to come.

AllSECBig TenACCBig 12IndependentGroup of FiveAmericanSun BeltMACCUSAMountain WestPac-12
Strength of recordSchedule playedSchedule left
10Boise State8–1 · HX No. 15
+1.72
SOR No. 10
Top-25 team
6.3–2.7
Played
0.31 · No. 66
Left
-0.78 · No. 72
23New Mexico8–1 · HX No. 50
+0.69
SOR No. 23
Top-25 team
7.3–1.7
Played
-2.27 · No. 127
Left
-1.98 · No. 97
25Liberty8–1 · HX No. 38
+0.51
SOR No. 25
Top-25 team
7.5–1.5
Played
-2.80 · No. 135
Left
-3.31 · No. 131
31Louisiana Tech7–2 · HX No. 57
+0.32
SOR No. 31
Top-25 team
6.7–2.3
Played
-0.92 · No. 82
Left
-2.30 · No. 105
32UTSA7–2 · HX No. 65
+0.32
SOR No. 32
Top-25 team
6.7–2.3
Played
-0.79 · No. 81
Left
-1.02 · No. 82
36North Texas7–2 · HX No. 58
+0.17
SOR No. 36
Top-25 team
6.8–2.2
Played
-1.08 · No. 87
Left
-1.64 · No. 91
37Memphis8–2 · HX No. 51
+0.12
SOR No. 37
Top-25 team
7.9–2.1
Played
-1.53 · No. 106
Left
-2.94 · No. 120
40James Madison8–2 · HX No. 40
−0.19
SOR No. 40
Top-25 team
8.2–1.8
Played
-1.92 · No. 118
Left
-2.24 · No. 103
45North Dakota State7–2 · HX No. 59
−0.49
SOR No. 45
Top-25 team
7.5–1.5
Played
-2.58 · No. 134
Left
-3.92 · No. 136
46Jacksonville State7–2 · HX No. 82
−0.56
SOR No. 46
Top-25 team
7.6–1.4
Played
-2.53 · No. 132
Left
-2.82 · No. 117
48Air Force7–2 · HX No. 101
−0.58
SOR No. 48
Top-25 team
7.6–1.4
Played
-2.24 · No. 125
Left
-2.55 · No. 111
49Toledo8–2 · HX No. 77
−0.60
SOR No. 49
Top-25 team
8.6–1.4
Played
-2.90 · No. 138
Left
-2.47 · No. 106
53Western Michigan7–3 · HX No. 62
−0.82
SOR No. 53
Top-25 team
7.8–2.2
Played
-1.82 · No. 116
Left
-3.04 · No. 123
59Buffalo7–3 · HX No. 88
−1.06
SOR No. 59
Top-25 team
8.1–1.9
Played
-1.86 · No. 117
Left
-4.00 · No. 137
61Florida Atlantic6–3 · HX No. 87
−1.11
SOR No. 61
Top-25 team
7.1–1.9
Played
-1.50 · No. 104
Left
-0.89 · No. 78
64Texas State5–4 · HX No. 45
−1.14
SOR No. 64
Top-25 team
6.1–2.9
Played
0.64 · No. 56
Left
-0.87 · No. 76
66Louisiana7–3 · HX No. 78
−1.17
SOR No. 66
Top-25 team
8.2–1.8
Played
-2.28 · No. 128
Left
-2.30 · No. 104
69Ohio7–3 · HX No. 89
−1.29
SOR No. 69
Top-25 team
8.3–1.7
Played
-2.82 · No. 136
Left
-2.50 · No. 108
72Wyoming6–3 · HX No. 109
−1.45
SOR No. 72
Top-25 team
7.4–1.6
Played
-2.50 · No. 131
Left
-2.16 · No. 100
73Fresno State5–4 · HX No. 56
−1.62
SOR No. 73
Top-25 team
6.6–2.4
Played
-1.08 · No. 88
Left
-0.84 · No. 74
74Oregon State5–4 · HX No. 63
−1.67
SOR No. 74
Top-25 team
6.7–2.3
Played
-0.55 · No. 77
Left
1.86 · No. 36
76Georgia Southern5–4 · HX No. 74
−1.80
SOR No. 76
Top-25 team
6.8–2.2
Played
-0.66 · No. 79
Left
-1.37 · No. 86
77East Carolina5–4 · HX No. 86
−1.86
SOR No. 77
Top-25 team
6.9–2.1
Played
-1.06 · No. 86
Left
-2.74 · No. 115
78Marshall5–4 · HX No. 104
−1.94
SOR No. 78
Top-25 team
6.9–2.1
Played
-1.42 · No. 99
Left
-3.27 · No. 130
81UAB5–4 · HX No. 110
−2.01
SOR No. 81
Top-25 team
7.0–2.0
Played
-1.54 · No. 107
Left
-1.00 · No. 80

Method

  • Benchmark: the current No. 25 team on the HX board. For each game already played, its win chance uses the HX matchup engine (Elo = 1500 + 55 × HX, 60 points home field, none at neutral sites). Against an FCS opponent it uses the season sim's fixed rule: 92% home, 88% away.
  • SOR = actual wins − the benchmark's expected wins on those games. +1.00 means one more win than a typical top-25 team would have.
  • Schedule played / left = average current HX of FBS opponents, ranked 1–138 (No. 1 = hardest). FCS opponents have no HX, so they are counted but left out of the average.
  • Everything uses current HX, so a win over a team that has since risen counts for more. Only real FINALs and the real remaining slate are used. More on The Model.