HX 2026.8 · 10,000 simulated seasons · 2026-11-12
Conference races
Who reaches each title game and who wins the league, from the same 10,000 HX season simulations behind Make 12. FINALs are locked; every remaining game is drawn from HX win probability.
Big Ten favorite
UCLAWin the league
39.1%
Title game
84.8%
Still alive
8 of 18
| Team | Conf now | Proj conf | Title gmTitle game | ChampWin the league |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCLAHX No. 13 · 6–0 conf | 6–0 | 8.0–1.0 | 84.8% | 39.1% |
 IndianaHX No. 12 · 5–1 conf | 5–1 | 7.1–1.9 | 56.6% | 29.2% |
 Ohio StateHX No. 9 · 4–2 conf | 4–2 | 6.1–2.9 | 27.6% | 15.3% |
 OregonHX No. 11 · 4–2 conf | 4–2 | 6.3–2.7 | 25.6% | 14.2% |
 IowaHX No. 17 · 4–2 conf | 4–2 | 6.0–3.0 | 2.5% | 1.1% |
 USCHX No. 25 · 4–2 conf | 4–2 | 5.5–3.5 | 1.4% | 0.5% |
 WisconsinHX No. 36 · 4–2 conf | 4–2 | 6.0–3.0 | 1.1% | 0.5% |
 IllinoisHX No. 44 · 4–2 conf | 4–2 | 5.0–4.0 | 0.3% | <0.1% |
 NorthwesternHX No. 26 · 3–3 conf | 3–3 | 4.6–4.4 | 0% | 0% |
 Penn StateHX No. 35 · 2–4 conf | 2–4 | 4.3–4.7 | 0% | 0% |
 MinnesotaHX No. 60 · 3–3 conf | 3–3 | 3.9–5.1 | 0% | 0% |
 NebraskaHX No. 30 · 2–4 conf | 2–4 | 3.5–5.5 | 0% | 0% |
 WashingtonHX No. 42 · 2–4 conf | 2–4 | 3.1–5.9 | 0% | 0% |
 MichiganHX No. 47 · 2–4 conf | 2–4 | 2.8–6.2 | 0% | 0% |
 PurdueHX No. 69 · 2–4 conf | 2–4 | 2.8–6.2 | 0% | 0% |
 Michigan StateHX No. 68 · 1–5 conf | 1–5 | 2.3–6.7 | 0% | 0% |
 MarylandHX No. 81 · 1–5 conf | 1–5 | 1.8–7.2 | 0% | 0% |
 RutgersHX No. 103 · 1–5 conf | 1–5 | 1.8–7.2 | 0% | 0% |
How this works
- 10,000 seasons, fixed seed 20261112, on the HX 2026.8 board. Each remaining game is a coin weighted by HX win probability (Elo = 1500 + 55 × HX, 60 points home field). Played games are locked.
- Top two by simulated conference win % (then conference wins, then HX, then a coin flip) meet at a neutral site. This is a simplified tiebreak, not each league's full rulebook.
- Pac-12 has two members in 2026 and no title game: champion by overall record, then head-to-head, then HX.
- Title-game odds add to 200% in each league (two teams per game); league-title odds add to 100%. “<0.1%” means alive but rare; 0% means it never happened in the draws.
- Same draws as Make 12 on the rankings. Method details on The Model.