HX 2026.8 · 10,000 simulated seasons · 2026-11-12
Conference races
Who reaches each title game and who wins the league, from the same 10,000 HX season simulations behind Make 12. FINALs are locked; every remaining game is drawn from HX win probability.
ACC favorite
MiamiWin the league
70.3%
Title game
99.8%
Still alive
6 of 17
| Team | Conf now | Proj conf | Title gmTitle game | ChampWin the league |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MiamiHX No. 3 · 6–0 conf | 6–0 | 8.6–0.4 | 99.8% | 70.3% |
 Wake ForestHX No. 24 · 5–1 conf | 5–1 | 6.9–2.1 | 50.9% | 15.2% |
 LouisvilleHX No. 19 · 5–2 conf | 5–2 | 6.3–2.7 | 34.6% | 10.9% |
 SMUHX No. 34 · 5–2 conf | 5–2 | 6.3–2.7 | 10.5% | 2.7% |
 ClemsonHX No. 37 · 4–2 conf | 4–2 | 5.2–2.8 | 2.2% | 0.5% |
 DukeHX No. 33 · 4–2 conf | 4–2 | 5.2–3.8 | 1.9% | 0.5% |
 Virginia TechHX No. 52 · 3–3 conf | 3–3 | 4.5–4.5 | 0% | 0% |
 PittsburghHX No. 49 · 3–3 conf | 3–3 | 4.5–4.5 | 0% | 0% |
 North CarolinaHX No. 41 · 2–3 conf | 2–3 | 3.8–4.2 | 0% | 0% |
 VirginiaHX No. 66 · 2–4 conf | 2–4 | 3.5–5.5 | 0% | 0% |
 CaliforniaHX No. 94 · 2–4 conf | 2–4 | 3.2–5.8 | 0% | 0% |
 Florida StateHX No. 48 · 2–4 conf | 2–4 | 3.2–4.8 | 0% | 0% |
 NC StateHX No. 80 · 2–4 conf | 2–4 | 3.0–6.0 | 0% | 0% |
 StanfordHX No. 90 · 2–4 conf | 2–4 | 2.9–6.1 | 0% | 0% |
 SyracuseHX No. 75 · 2–5 conf | 2–5 | 2.9–6.1 | 0% | 0% |
 Boston CollegeHX No. 83 · 2–4 conf | 2–4 | 2.6–5.4 | 0% | 0% |
 Georgia TechHX No. 97 · 1–5 conf | 1–5 | 1.4–6.6 | 0% | 0% |
How this works
- 10,000 seasons, fixed seed 20261112, on the HX 2026.8 board. Each remaining game is a coin weighted by HX win probability (Elo = 1500 + 55 × HX, 60 points home field). Played games are locked.
- Top two by simulated conference win % (then conference wins, then HX, then a coin flip) meet at a neutral site. This is a simplified tiebreak, not each league's full rulebook.
- Pac-12 has two members in 2026 and no title game: champion by overall record, then head-to-head, then HX.
- Title-game odds add to 200% in each league (two teams per game); league-title odds add to 100%. “<0.1%” means alive but rare; 0% means it never happened in the draws.
- Same draws as Make 12 on the rankings. Method details on The Model.