HX 2026.8 · 10,000 simulated seasons · 2026-11-12
Conference races
Who reaches each title game and who wins the league, from the same 10,000 HX season simulations behind Make 12. FINALs are locked; every remaining game is drawn from HX win probability.
CUSA favorite
LibertyWin the league
71.9%
Title game
>99.9%
Still alive
3 of 12
| Team | Conf now | Proj conf | Title gmTitle game | ChampWin the league |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LibertyHX No. 38 · 5–0 conf | 5–0 | 7.6–0.4 | >99.9% | 71.9% |
 Jacksonville StateHX No. 82 · 5–0 conf | 5–0 | 6.8–1.2 | 99.8% | 28.1% |
 Middle TennesseeHX No. 124 · 3–2 conf | 3–2 | 4.3–3.7 | 0.2% | <0.1% |
 DelawareHX No. 98 · 2–3 conf | 2–3 | 3.7–4.3 | 0% | 0% |
 Florida InternationalHX No. 105 · 2–3 conf | 2–3 | 3.6–4.4 | 0% | 0% |
 Kennesaw StateHX No. 117 · 2–3 conf | 2–3 | 3.5–4.5 | 0% | 0% |
 Western KentuckyHX No. 115 · 2–3 conf | 2–3 | 3.2–4.8 | 0% | 0% |
 New Mexico StateHX No. 128 · 2–3 conf | 2–3 | 3.1–4.9 | 0% | 0% |
 Missouri StateHX No. 122 · 2–3 conf | 2–3 | 3.1–4.9 | 0% | 0% |
 Sam HoustonHX No. 134 · 0–5 conf | 0–5 | 1.1–6.9 | 0% | 0% |
 Louisiana TechHX No. 57 · 0–0 conf | 0–0 | 0.0–0.0 | 0% | 0% |
 UTEPHX No. 136 · 0–0 conf | 0–0 | 0.0–0.0 | 0% | 0% |
How this works
- 10,000 seasons, fixed seed 20261112, on the HX 2026.8 board. Each remaining game is a coin weighted by HX win probability (Elo = 1500 + 55 × HX, 60 points home field). Played games are locked.
- Top two by simulated conference win % (then conference wins, then HX, then a coin flip) meet at a neutral site. This is a simplified tiebreak, not each league's full rulebook.
- Pac-12 has two members in 2026 and no title game: champion by overall record, then head-to-head, then HX.
- Title-game odds add to 200% in each league (two teams per game); league-title odds add to 100%. “<0.1%” means alive but rare; 0% means it never happened in the draws.
- Same draws as Make 12 on the rankings. Method details on The Model.