HX 2026.8 · 10,000 simulated seasons · 2026-11-12

Conference races

Who reaches each title game and who wins the league, from the same 10,000 HX season simulations behind Make 12. FINALs are locked; every remaining game is drawn from HX win probability.

SEC Big Ten ACC Big 12 American Sun Belt MAC CUSA Mountain West Pac-12

Big 12 favorite

Utah

Win the league

60.4%

Title game

98.7%

Still alive

7 of 16

Team	Conf now	Proj conf	Title gmTitle game	ChampWin the league
UtahHX No. 8 · 6–0 conf	6–0	8.1–0.9	98.7%	60.4%
Texas TechHX No. 16 · 5–1 conf	5–1	6.7–2.3	64.2%	25.4%
BYUHX No. 18 · 4–2 conf	4–2	6.1–2.9	16.0%	6.5%
HoustonHX No. 22 · 4–2 conf	4–2	6.0–3.0	7.8%	2.7%
Oklahoma StateHX No. 29 · 4–2 conf	4–2	5.9–3.1	5.9%	2.1%
ArizonaHX No. 23 · 4–2 conf	4–2	5.9–3.1	5.2%	2.0%
BaylorHX No. 31 · 4–2 conf	4–2	5.3–3.7	2.3%	0.8%
UCFHX No. 55 · 3–3 conf	3–3	4.7–4.3	0%	0%
Arizona StateHX No. 71 · 3–3 conf	3–3	4.0–5.0	0%	0%
Iowa StateHX No. 53 · 2–4 conf	2–4	3.7–5.3	0%	0%
TCUHX No. 43 · 2–4 conf	2–4	3.3–5.7	0%	0%
CincinnatiHX No. 61 · 2–4 conf	2–4	3.3–5.7	0%	0%
West VirginiaHX No. 67 · 2–4 conf	2–4	3.1–5.9	0%	0%
ColoradoHX No. 84 · 1–5 conf	1–5	2.0–7.0	0%	0%
KansasHX No. 70 · 1–5 conf	1–5	2.0–7.0	0%	0%
Kansas StateHX No. 73 · 1–5 conf	1–5	1.9–7.1	0%	0%

How this works

10,000 seasons, fixed seed 20261112, on the HX 2026.8 board. Each remaining game is a coin weighted by HX win probability (Elo = 1500 + 55 × HX, 60 points home field). Played games are locked.
Top two by simulated conference win % (then conference wins, then HX, then a coin flip) meet at a neutral site. This is a simplified tiebreak, not each league's full rulebook.
Pac-12 has two members in 2026 and no title game: champion by overall record, then head-to-head, then HX.
Title-game odds add to 200% in each league (two teams per game); league-title odds add to 100%. “<0.1%” means alive but rare; 0% means it never happened in the draws.
Same draws as Make 12 on the rankings. Method details on The Model.