HX 2026.8 · 10,000 simulated seasons · 2026-11-12

Conference races

Who reaches each title game and who wins the league, from the same 10,000 HX season simulations behind Make 12. FINALs are locked; every remaining game is drawn from HX win probability.

SEC Big Ten ACC Big 12 American Sun Belt MAC CUSA Mountain West Pac-12

Pac-12 favorite

Oregon State

Win the league

100.0%

Title game

None

Still alive

1 of 2

Team	Conf now	Proj conf	ChampWin the league
Oregon StateHX No. 63 · 1–0 conf	1–0	1.0–0.0	100.0%
Washington StateHX No. 102 · 0–1 conf	0–1	0.0–1.0	0%

How this works

10,000 seasons, fixed seed 20261112, on the HX 2026.8 board. Each remaining game is a coin weighted by HX win probability (Elo = 1500 + 55 × HX, 60 points home field). Played games are locked.
Top two by simulated conference win % (then conference wins, then HX, then a coin flip) meet at a neutral site. This is a simplified tiebreak, not each league's full rulebook.
Pac-12 has two members in 2026 and no title game: champion by overall record, then head-to-head, then HX.
Title-game odds add to 200% in each league (two teams per game); league-title odds add to 100%. “<0.1%” means alive but rare; 0% means it never happened in the draws.
Same draws as Make 12 on the rankings. Method details on The Model.