HX 2026.8 · 10,000 simulated seasons · 2026-11-12
Conference races
Who reaches each title game and who wins the league, from the same 10,000 HX season simulations behind Make 12. FINALs are locked; every remaining game is drawn from HX win probability.
American favorite
North TexasWin the league
42.0%
Title game
87.7%
Still alive
9 of 14
| Team | Conf now | Proj conf | Title gmTitle game | ChampWin the league |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North TexasHX No. 58 · 5–0 conf | 5–0 | 6.8–1.2 | 87.7% | 42.0% |
 MemphisHX No. 51 · 4–1 conf | 4–1 | 6.1–1.9 | 75.3% | 41.5% |
 UTSAHX No. 65 · 4–1 conf | 4–1 | 5.8–2.2 | 31.7% | 14.7% |
 ArmyHX No. 91 · 4–2 conf | 4–2 | 5.1–2.9 | 2.7% | 0.9% |
 East CarolinaHX No. 86 · 3–2 conf | 3–2 | 4.7–3.3 | 1.5% | 0.5% |
 Florida AtlanticHX No. 87 · 3–2 conf | 3–2 | 4.3–3.7 | 0.6% | 0.3% |
 UABHX No. 110 · 3–2 conf | 3–2 | 4.1–3.9 | 0.5% | 0.2% |
 TulsaHX No. 79 · 2–3 conf | 2–3 | 3.8–4.2 | <0.1% | <0.1% |
 South FloridaHX No. 76 · 2–3 conf | 2–3 | 3.7–4.3 | <0.1% | <0.1% |
 TulaneHX No. 107 · 2–3 conf | 2–3 | 3.1–4.9 | 0% | 0% |
 NavyHX No. 106 · 2–4 conf | 2–4 | 2.9–5.1 | 0% | 0% |
 TempleHX No. 121 · 1–4 conf | 1–4 | 2.3–5.7 | 0% | 0% |
 CharlotteHX No. 132 · 1–4 conf | 1–4 | 1.9–6.1 | 0% | 0% |
 RiceHX No. 123 · 0–5 conf | 0–5 | 1.4–6.6 | 0% | 0% |
How this works
- 10,000 seasons, fixed seed 20261112, on the HX 2026.8 board. Each remaining game is a coin weighted by HX win probability (Elo = 1500 + 55 × HX, 60 points home field). Played games are locked.
- Top two by simulated conference win % (then conference wins, then HX, then a coin flip) meet at a neutral site. This is a simplified tiebreak, not each league's full rulebook.
- Pac-12 has two members in 2026 and no title game: champion by overall record, then head-to-head, then HX.
- Title-game odds add to 200% in each league (two teams per game); league-title odds add to 100%. “<0.1%” means alive but rare; 0% means it never happened in the draws.
- Same draws as Make 12 on the rankings. Method details on The Model.