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HX 2026.8 · 10,000 simulated seasons · 2026-11-12

Conference races

Who reaches each title game and who wins the league, from the same 10,000 HX season simulations behind Make 12. FINALs are locked; every remaining game is drawn from HX win probability.

SECBig TenACCBig 12AmericanSun BeltMACCUSAMountain WestPac-12

Sun Belt favorite

James Madison
Win the league
56.0%
Title game
82.0%
Still alive
10 of 14
TeamProj confTitle gmChamp
James MadisonHX No. 40 · 5–2 conf5.9–2.1
82.0%
56.0%
Georgia SouthernHX No. 74 · 4–1 conf5.1–1.9
69.2%
26.3%
LouisianaHX No. 78 · 3–1 conf5.0–2.0
42.4%
15.9%
South AlabamaHX No. 100 · 2–2 conf3.8–3.2
2.3%
0.8%
TroyHX No. 108 · 2–2 conf3.2–3.8
1.4%
0.4%
Georgia StateHX No. 95 · 2–3 conf3.4–4.6
1.2%
0.3%
MarshallHX No. 104 · 2–3 conf3.8–4.2
0.6%
0.1%
UL MonroeHX No. 133 · 2–2 conf2.9–4.1
0.4%
<0.1%
App StateHX No. 114 · 2–3 conf3.5–4.5
0.3%
<0.1%
Coastal CarolinaHX No. 111 · 2–3 conf3.0–5.0
0.1%
<0.1%
Arkansas StateHX No. 112 · 2–3 conf3.0–4.0
0%
0%
Southern MissHX No. 126 · 2–3 conf2.8–4.2
0%
0%
Old DominionHX No. 125 · 2–4 conf2.6–4.4
0%
0%
Texas StateHX No. 45 · 0–0 conf0.0–0.0
0%
0%

How this works

  • 10,000 seasons, fixed seed 20261112, on the HX 2026.8 board. Each remaining game is a coin weighted by HX win probability (Elo = 1500 + 55 × HX, 60 points home field). Played games are locked.
  • Top two by simulated conference win % (then conference wins, then HX, then a coin flip) meet at a neutral site. This is a simplified tiebreak, not each league's full rulebook.
  • Pac-12 has two members in 2026 and no title game: champion by overall record, then head-to-head, then HX.
  • Title-game odds add to 200% in each league (two teams per game); league-title odds add to 100%. “<0.1%” means alive but rare; 0% means it never happened in the draws.
  • Same draws as Make 12 on the rankings. Method details on The Model.